iIf the 'divine winds' never came

Kublai Khan tried to invade Japan in 1281AD. They succeeded in conquering the island of Iki.The Eastern army (40,000 men) then tried to invade Japan's mainland at Hakata Bay, but once they embarked onto the beaches they were immediately attacked by samurais so they would retreat back to the ships. They tried one more time and failed again. So then they went back to Iki to wait for the Southern Army(which they were suppose to do) which was 100,000 men strong. So in a combined force of 140,000 men in two different fleets set sail to invade Japan again, but on their way they were hit by heavy winds and tornados which destroyed their entire fleet, thus the name divine winds or 'kamakazi'.

So if the 'divine winds' never came or happened, could the Mongols have succeeded in landing and defeating the samurais once on land? Could Mongol tactics beat Japanese tactics? The way I understand it Japanese tactics were based very much on the individuel soldier and mostly reflected on a bunch of individual duels in battle. Since the Japanese only fought their own the same tactics were used therefore the need for anything else wasn't there. But if an outside force came to do battle, could the Japanese individualists survive the encounter of a unified force?

Just off the top of my head, I'd think the Mongols would do poorly in Japan in the long run. The terrain is not suited to their style of warfare. They'd have long supply lines across a large body of water, not just land lines. They'd have to deal with rebellion from an advanced civilization, not like the weak central Asian tribes and city-states they were used to conquering.

Parts of Japan might be 'Mongolized' and might even stay that way for decades or centuries, thus drastically altering Japan's history, but Japan as a whole could never IMO be brought to heel the same way the rest of the Mongols' conquests were. A partially-successful Mongol invasion might in the long run be good for Japan - it might unify the 'free' parts behind one strong central government much earlier than historically.

It would be interesting to see what Japan would do when the Mongols finally are driven out; would they close their doors and be even more xenophobic than in OTL, or would they go exactly the opposite way?

Diamond said:

Just off the top of my head, I'd think the Mongols would do poorly in Japan in the long run. The terrain is not suited to their style of warfare. They'd have long supply lines across a large body of water, not just land lines. They'd have to deal with rebellion from an advanced civilization, not like the weak central Asian tribes and city-states they were used to conquering.

Parts of Japan might be 'Mongolized' and might even stay that way for decades or centuries, thus drastically altering Japan's history, but Japan as a whole could never IMO be brought to heel the same way the rest of the Mongols' conquests were. A partially-successful Mongol invasion might in the long run be good for Japan - it might unify the 'free' parts behind one strong central government much earlier than historically.

It would be interesting to see what Japan would do when the Mongols finally are driven out; would they close their doors and be even more xenophobic than in OTL, or would they go exactly the opposite way?

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yeah, I don't see the Mongols taking the entire group of islands. Defenses were built up in , tactics were revaluated and changed. Fighting, if it did spread into central Honshu would be fierce...but..

If the 2nd force or "Southern Fleet " as it was called did land, they would have certainly taken over most of Kyushu and parts of Honshu. The disipline of Mongol armys would have overwhelmed any army that any Kyushu daimyo would try to field. A Hojo army would last longer on Kyushu, but eventually that too would be rushed and Kyushu would fall. Several forts in Kyushu would hold out, but that would be irrelevant. but they could have been able to hold Kyushu for very long.

The Mongols did not just imploy calvary tactics in warfare. In fact it has shown Kublai Kahn's generals were well adapted in Chinese, Korean, and Turkish infantry warfare. I honestly believe a fresh Mongolian/Chinese/Korean army could've defeated a Samurai army if it wasn't for the storm. The second invasion could have been sucessful. But who knows, there could be an "Asian" Thermopile.

The "Mongolized" scheme seem interesting. In the events after the fall of the Mongolian Empire in Korea and China, Japan, due to its isolation could've faced a permanent Mongolian rule, like the one shown in India. If I recall, in Japan at the time, the official language was Chinese, but the common people spoke Japanese. Sort of like how in England after Hastings when the ruling class spoke French/Norman and the population continued speaking old English. Same in Japan, the ruling class "tried" to speak Chinese. Perhaps this might have been the case in Japan with the Mongols.

I don't think mongols would do very good at all attacking over the sea (which they didn't). It just doesn't suit the nomadic horsemen style.

Hmmm..."Mongolized" sections of Japan..this could preclude a united Japan in the future. The areas that remained outside of the Mongol sphere could be like southern India, whilst the Mongol ruled sections could have a remnant Mongol/Mughal (what is the Japanese word for "Mongol" anyway?) dynasty, probably in Kyushu and parts of Shikoku and Honshu.

This could affect the Ryukyu islands in the long run and would probably affect the interaction of Europe and the Japanese islands in the long term....