Age-Specific Virus

Let's say we get a disease somehow that kills people who are past their prime at an extraordinary rate. It can pass through younger people, but appears to be nothing more than a mild case of the flu. That keeps it from getting attention until it is already worldwide.

A rough survival rate:
Age 0-30 = 99.99%
Age 30-40 = 80%
Age 40-50 = 20%
Age 50+ = 5%

How would this effect things? The obvious place to look is Europe, with its aging population.

Drat, can't seem to think clearly. Just pulled an all-nighter. See if you can make some sense out of this. Oh, and I apologize to our older posters.

A couple of obvious points

There would be an even bigger population gap between the wealthier, more developed nations, and the less developed nations. In many areas, politics and religion become radicalized (or even more radicalized than they already are) since younger people are generally more likely to support radical movements of any kind.

Well now my kids just have to do all the work on the farm
As I'm now dead ?
P.S. You want an all nighter I was up all night with a cow in labor

Admiral Matt said:

Let's say we get a disease somehow that kills people who are past their prime at an extraordinary rate. It can pass through younger people, but appears to be nothing more than a mild case of the flu. That keeps it from getting attention until it is already worldwide.

A rough survival rate:
Age 0-30 = 99.99%
Age 30-40 = 80%
Age 40-50 = 20%
Age 50+ = 5%

How would this effect things? The obvious place to look is Europe, with its aging population.

Drat, can't seem to think clearly. Just pulled an all-nighter. See if you can make some sense out of this. Oh, and I apologize to our older posters.

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Most of the western world has an aging population crisis. I did a quick calculation on StatsCan http://www.statcan.ca/english/Pgdb/demo10a.htm and got a rough figure of about 45% of the population of Canada dying off. It's probably safe to assume that the rest of Europe and North America will probably suffer similiar losses.

Aside from the fact that about 1/2 the population just died (and how many of those were in critical political, social, and industrial positions?) which will no doubt cause some pretty massive disruptions (see the 'civilization die-off' thread that we had here a few months back for some ideas on that--ignore all the stuff on sentient kudzu ) we actually have something resembling a silver lining in all this: The major worry that most countries have (and the source of the 'crisis' mentality) is simple--there just isn't enough money in the treasury to pay for all the pensions for all the retirees AND the rest of essential services for the non-retirees.

Now that basically everyone over 40 just died (and all you 'old farts' DID update your wills and leave all your stuff to your kids, right? ), we don't have so much to worry about pension crunch in the next decade.

Mind you--half the population just died--that might cause other problems....

China would get over its over population propblems ahead of time...
Anyone under 30 who died of it would be laughed at for being one of the .01%.
I suppose it would depend on what affects who dies out of the %s- the government all dying or not will have a effect.

Gangs of angry and parentless teens roam the streets looting and pillaging.

The army would have to sieze control- it would probably be the only governmental organisation with some coherent command structure in the less affected age groups (i.e. junior officers and NCOs)

How bad the situation gets really does depend on just how badly the governments disintegrate during the spread of the virus and how quickly they can get their act together and rebuild afterwards.

Most of the military command structure will survive intact--I don't have any actual figures but my impression is the bulk of the world's armed forces tend to be mostly in the under-35 group--so expect lots of survivors, at least among those in the junior officer level and below. There might be a serious shortage of experienced admirals and generals tho. Anybody have exact figures on this?

I'm more worried about the political impact--how many of our politicians are over 40? I think it's safe to assume pretty much all of them--so there's going to be some serious issues regarding succession in many countries. Sure--a lot of them have a chain of succession--but what happens if the entire chain is dead?

Social impact? LOTS of orphaned kids and teenagers. Lots of disputes over property rights and estate issues and who is suppose to take care of what and who.

Economic and technological impact? Lots of dead experienced business leaders and CEOs and so forth, as well as lots of dead professors and scientists. Mind you--not all of them are over 40 and not all of them will die but I have to think that this will cause some problems for a while.

Plus the fact that there's all these dead bodies lying around....

BTW--minor screw-up on the figures--it's closer to 35% rather than 45% death rate--still freaking high, IMO.

"Let's say we get a disease somehow that kills people who are past their prime at an extraordinary rate."

Past their prime? If that isn't one of the most vague and undefinable milestones of life. With people living longer and being more active the age is probably more realistically 50 or so. I mean, 200 years ago some at age 25 probably would have been past their prime also.

But its a virus and the extent of the lost will not be entirely global and cure to it would probably be eventually discovered. Exactly how long that "eventually" will be is questionable.

There is no Sanctuary!

David S Poepoe said:

"Let's say we get a disease somehow that kills people who are past their prime at an extraordinary rate."

Past their prime? If that isn't one of the most vague and undefinable milestones of life. With people living longer and being more active the age is probably more realistically 50 or so. I mean, 200 years ago some at age 25 probably would have been past their prime also.

But its a virus and the extent of the lost will not be entirely global and cure to it would probably be eventually discovered. Exactly how long that "eventually" will be is questionable.

There is no Sanctuary!

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David --chill out okay--I'm sure Matt didn't mean anything by that (then again--maybe he did--can't trust them younguns )

I didn't find it that offensive and we're pretty much the same age.

And yes--I did have a Logan's Run flashback too when i read this thread.

Maybe somebody should start a thread where everyone UNDER 30 bites it. Hah! That will show them young whippersnappers!

Don't trust anyone under 30! They're the lost generation! Go oldtimers! Aaaarrghh!

Oh, I didn't find it offensive either. It was just so 'open ended' and undefined - at least from one POV. Any guy who is married with a family by 35 probably has thoughts that he was in his prime in his 20s when he was a chick magnet and unattached and now is past it.

David S Poepoe said:

Oh, I didn't find it offensive either. It was just so 'open ended' and undefined - at least from one POV. Any guy who is married with a family by 35 probably has thoughts that he was in his prime in his 20s when he was a chick magnet and unattached and now is past it.

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Whoa! Hang on--you mean I'm NOT a chick magnet anymore?!?

Somebody's going to pay for this!

I fail to see how this is different from OTL.

We have tons of diseases that are far more fatal if acquired later in life than earlier. In fact, that's MOST diseases! For example, all the childhood diseases (for which there are now vaccines) were nothing but nuissances in childhood but could be fatal in adults. Even influenza is hardly recognizable as more than a common cold in a child, while in an 80 year old is about 50+% fatal.

David Poepoe: I hadn't slept for roughly 40-45 hours when I wrote this, so I think I actually managed to come off pretty well. You're right about it being a vague term, but at the time I couldn't think of a better way to say it ("all the old people die" struck me as a trifle insensitive).

Adamanteus: The difference is that this time, the disease kills them all off. You will notice that this is a fairly substantial change.

I was thinking when I came up with this (when I had a clearer mind then when I wrote it) that it would probably mess up Africa the most. They can't afford to lose what little stability they have. Look at South Africa - the white population will be hurt much more than the black, and many of the conciliating leaders just died.

The US will probably come out in near the best position of the Western countries. We have a pretty good birth-rate for whites and black people are above replacement rates. There might be a pretty big reaction against the influx of Spanish speakers.

That reminds me. A lot of the reason European countries want so much to allow immigration is so that there will be enough money to pay for the retirement of most of their population. Without those people retiring, Europeans will have a lot less interest in massed immigration and the ratio of immigrants to natives just increased... I could see France having something like a civil war between the secular natives and devout muslim immigrants.

Admiral Matt said:

David Poepoe: I hadn't slept for roughly 40-45 hours when I wrote this, so I think I actually managed to come off pretty well. You're right about it being a vague term, but at the time I couldn't think of a better way to say it ("all the old people die" struck me as a trifle insensitive).

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Reminds me of Stan Freberg singing "Old Man River" - I mean, "Elderly Man River".

Ah, but all those old Muslim holy men and clerics will also be killed off by the virus!

As Ambrose Bierce said "The greatest good for the greatest number - Death."

ASB

There have been some science fiction books on this, but with different age ranges. "The Girl Who Owned A City", "Worlds", etc. It makes a difference whether it's everyone over puberty or everyone who's just older.
There would be no problem between secular and religious Arabs in Europe. With so many dead older people in the Arab world, the religious Arabs would just go back to the Arab world. Secular Arabs would want to move into all those empty houses in Europe, though. Maybe all the Christian Arabs would move? What about the Israelis? The houses in Eastern Europe that were stolen from their grandparents are now empty...
Real estate prices would collapse, and so would capital investments in the whole of the first world. Empty houses everywhere. All the sixteen year olds would be getting married, getting jobs, settling down. Commodity prices would collapse. Tax rates would collapse. Forget about wills and inheiritances. You wouldn't care who got the house, or the worthless stocks and bonds. It's the jewelry and cars you would care about.

Would it really get to that level? Although I can see that level of anarchy occurring in some places, I don't think it will hit everyplace. What are we talking about--30%-40% fatality rate? Still a fairly large chunk of people left--I would imagine that there would be still some semblence of governments left in some places of the world.

Doctor What said:

Would it really get to that level? Although I can see that level of anarchy occurring in some places, I don't think it will hit everyplace. What are we talking about--30%-40% fatality rate? Still a fairly large chunk of people left--I would imagine that there would be still some semblence of governments left in some places of the world.

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Anarcho-Communist communes set up in Western Europe as spoilt idealistic teenagers try to put their dreams into work.

Initiate Lord of the Flies mode.

Sure

You remove half the tenants, the rent falls. You remove half the employees, the wages rise. Eventually they rise to the point where half the factories or McDonalds are empty, until all the interest and dividends and rent are flowing to the employees and tenants. That's what happened in the middle ages when the black plague killed half of the population of Europe. The lords went nuts when no one would work their estates without being allowed to buy the land at the new, lower, prices. They kept passing laws that people ignored. Your tenants wouldn't argue with you, they would just move fifty miles away and forget you existed.