WW1 Challenge - Russia wins

Was re-reading my slimline volume outlining the chronology of WW1 and I was wondering if it was possible to make Russia fare better, possibly enough to give them the bulk of the credit for defeating the Central Powers.

POD (no earlier than) - 28th July 1914.

Split the Russian army into three - 15% to go to the border with the Ottomans, 55% to go to Austria-Hungary and 30% to go to the German border.

Instead of marching into Germany, I'd have defenses prepared in Poland. The German army in Prussia is more defensive than offensive and the bulk of the German army is concentrated in the west. In OTL, the initial Russian moves were more successful against AH so with more troops, I'd expect them to go even better. The Germans have to rush to prop up their allies and I expect them to send more than the 3 divisions they sent to Tannenberg in OTL. There is no "Miracle of the Marne" on the western front simply because the Germans don't quite penetrate that far.

Then have the Russians put pressure on the Rumanians to join the war early. Granted their army is poorly led and backwards but it would give the Austro-Hungarians a lot more to think about. Convince the British and French to convince the Italians to join the war early against AH. Again, it won't go all that well but keep putting the pressure on the Austrians and try and force them out of the war or at least force the Germans to divert more troops into propping them up.

I suspect the Germans will try an offensive into Poland at some point but with better defenses, the precision artillery barrages which were something of a Prussian hallmark are somewhat negated and they take many losses. The Russians can withdraw quite orderly but by then, the harvest has been taken in and is on its way to feed the Russians rather than the Germans. The Germans will be even more dependent on Swedish imports and there might be moves by the Allies to reduce these imports to zero.

As things roll around to January 1915, the situation is that large chunks of AH are in the hands of the Russians. Germany has made progress in Poland and in France but nowhere near as much in OTL. Importantly however is Hindenberg and Ludendorff haven't become the cult figures they did in OTL. They were an extremely efficient pair, certainly compared with Falkenheym. With him still in the driving seat, the German army won't reorganise and all but take over the country to get what it wants.

Worth continuing?

Early Russian focus on A-H

I'd personally rate Falkenhayen as being better than Ludendorf, at least at strategic planning. Increasing his power would stil benefit the Russians however, as he was more of a westerner, and ould have stood on the defensive in the East, except for local efforts.

This would spare the Russians the slaughter of 1915, which would leave them with a better trained and more aggresive army in 1915/16, when the material advantage was theirs. Assuming better Russian performance leads to earlier Italain and Romanian entries into the war, and assuming that these attacks are timed better than OTL, A-H could be in a state of collapse by 1916, especially if the Western Allies could be induced to land at Salonika and move north with the forces used at gallipoli in OTL.

In the Ottoman Empire

The Ottoman government are stunned to say the least at Russia's successes. German advisors had been training up the Ottoman officer corps in the years prior to the war but didn't stop their humiliation in the 1st Balkan war. Pride was salvaged in the 2nd Balkan war and plans were underway by the Young Turks to beef up the military but the empire was plagued by little/no industry, lousy transport infrastructure and more internal divisions than in the Austro-Hungarian empire (no mean feat that). They have also eyed the large numbers of troops being deployed on the border.

Russia is feeling belligerant but wise heads have prevented the Russians from attacking. They give warnings to the Sultan not to enter the war on the side of the Central Powers. Such a provocative mood could be...disasterous. They were seeking revenge and lost European territory and could boast 600,000 troops to throw at whatever enemy they chose but against modern European armies, their effectiveness was questionable.

October 29th 1914 came and went for the Ottomans. The German Ambassador requested formal entry into the war but the Sultan had a rare attack of common sense and declined. He was faced with an interesting dilemma however. He could snub his German allies, keep the Dardanelle straits open to British and French shipping thus keeping the Russians resupplied. This might make the Allies grateful...very grateful. However, if he closed the straits, the Russians might feel compelled to attack. The Bulgarians and Greeks were another worry. Both had designs on Constantinople and both had strong ties to the British and the Germans. A careful diplomatic game had to be played. One thing was certain, Austria-Hungary was living on borrowed time. Even if the Central Powers could pull a victory out of the bag, the empire would probably split and there was the question of possibly regaining Bosnia or Albania if nobody was looking.

The Russians were somewhat holding their own against the Germans in Poland but were continuing to make a slow advance against the Austrians. They had to consider their next moves. Germany was adopting a defensive posture in East Prussia and Russia had observed how badly the French were humiliated near Strasbourg when attacking German defences. This would ease the Western Front situation but Russia was quite short of offensive materials, most of which had been diverted to the Austrian attack. However, increased German presence in danger of halting the offensive PDQ.

The Serbians were also crying out for intervention. Although they had beaten back AH, their army was all but exhausted and conscription was scooping up the over 60's. Something needed to be done. The answer - Greece.

POD (no earlier than) - 28th July 1914

Hm, The czar had committed himself to the French to attack the Germans early long before this date. Not doing so is going to strain that alliance.

Poland

Instead of marching into Germany, I'd have defenses prepared in Poland.

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This struck me as wrong. whe are going for a WW1 for the next round so I poped over to ME and checked the 1914 map.

There was NO poland in 1914, maybe Russia could have had better fortifications along It's border with Germany. Problem is in 1914 everyone was still thinking in terms of napoleanic /Prussian War. Mobility.

Both Sides had Ignored the Static front lessons of the Russo/Jap war.



ps whe still need eastern front particapants in ME4

The Russians have to put money into communications and reconaisance earlier than 1914. Make it 1912 and they bought more aircraft, more radiotelegraph units, more cypher machinery, more railroad troops, and above all, more maps. Say, they did air reconaisance with photomapping capability so they could figure out where they are, and print maps for the lower units, and orient them.
When they run into the Masurian Lakes they don't get chopped off, they just repulse the German attacks. No defeat, no retreat, no captured experienced troops, no loss of arms. They resupply and reinforce and lay railroad lines to the front, and the Germans figure out they are for it next time, and call for reinforcements.
The Germans pull even more troops off the Western Front and retreat to a point east of the nitrate reserves of Antwerp, losing the Channel coast. They get the credit for the Miracle of the Marne and the French are gratefull.
The Germans do force them back next time, but the reputation is won. More German troops are sucked into the West.
Combine this with a competent Allied assessment unit to figure out that the casualty exchange is not as favorable as the Allied command figures, and use this to improve tactical doctrine. The Western Front stabilizes while the Allies retrain their officers. Meanwhile their is a political need to help the Russians, so they send lots of railroad track and equipment to Russia, which needs it desperately. As a matter of fact, they send more everything to Russia.
Murmansk is running in 1916 instead of 1918. Big improvement. The Brusilov counteroffensive has more troops, more arms, more ammo, and more success. Austria Hungary breaks and the war is over.

DuQuense said:

This struck me as wrong. whe are going for a WW1 for the next round so I poped over to ME and checked the 1914 map.

There was NO poland in 1914,

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I know there wasn't a "Poland" per se but the area was still referred to as "Poland" - literary licence and all that.

If you delayed the war a few years then the on going modernisation of Russia (and its army) may have helped it along it quite a bit.

Leej said:

If you delayed the war a few years then the on going modernisation of Russia (and its army) may have helped it along it quite a bit.

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Good point. One simple way for the Russians to win would be not to mobilize. Without Russian mobilization there probably won't be a Great War as we know it. The Russians negotiate a temporary occupation of Beograde by the Austrians. The Serbs certainly should be punished for supporting terrorists, and it should be reinforced that Russo-Serbian relations are dictated from St. Petersburg, not Beograde.

David S Poepoe said:

Good point. One simple way for the Russians to win would be not to mobilize. Without Russian mobilization there probably won't be a Great War as we know it. The Russians negotiate a temporary occupation of Beograde by the Austrians. The Serbs certainly should be punished for supporting terrorists, and it should be reinforced that Russo-Serbian relations are dictated from St. Petersburg, not Beograde.

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Another way is for the Russians to mirror the Austrians. When the Austrians do a partial mobilization, the Russians do a partial mobilization. The Russians couldn't do a partial mobilization since they didn't have the planning and timetables set up.
That way when the Austrians mobilize first they are no longer forcing the Russians to mobilize, as in OTL. Now when the Austrians partially mobilize and occupy part of Serbia until the Serbians hand over Apis (who was shot by the Serbians for his actions in the Sarajevo affair), the Russians can partially mobilize and occupy part of Austria until the Austrians hand over Franz-Joseph. I would suggest Ruthenia. It was majority Ukranian anyway. And it would make the Hungarians a lot more cooperative with the Austrians, as well.

I think you are trying to ideliberately irritate me. The Ottomans entered the war AGAINST the wishes of the government and especially the Sultan, who in this era was just a figurehead. One might add that the last Sultan to really rule, Abdul Hamid, far from lacking "common sense", had conducted a flawless foreign policy that even Bismarck acknowledged as superior in execution to his own.

In any case, a superior Entente performance in the east early on will remove any chance that the Ottomans would enter the war - this will also mean Bulgaria will stay out, greatly magnifying the Austrians' problems with Serbia. It would also free up 2 million Entente troops for use against the CP, and leave the Straits open to non-warships, greatly magnifying the strength of Russia.

I think you could end up with a similar result even without the earlier POD, just have the Ottomans stay out - no Goeben.

ljofa said:

The Ottoman government are stunned to say the least at Russia's successes. German advisors had been training up the Ottoman officer corps in the years prior to the war but didn't stop their humiliation in the 1st Balkan war. Pride was salvaged in the 2nd Balkan war and plans were underway by the Young Turks to beef up the military but the empire was plagued by little/no industry, lousy transport infrastructure and more internal divisions than in the Austro-Hungarian empire (no mean feat that). They have also eyed the large numbers of troops being deployed on the border.

Russia is feeling belligerant but wise heads have prevented the Russians from attacking. They give warnings to the Sultan not to enter the war on the side of the Central Powers. Such a provocative mood could be...disasterous. They were seeking revenge and lost European territory and could boast 600,000 troops to throw at whatever enemy they chose but against modern European armies, their effectiveness was questionable.

October 29th 1914 came and went for the Ottomans. The German Ambassador requested formal entry into the war but the Sultan had a rare attack of common sense and declined. He was faced with an interesting dilemma however. He could snub his German allies, keep the Dardanelle straits open to British and French shipping thus keeping the Russians resupplied. This might make the Allies grateful...very grateful. However, if he closed the straits, the Russians might feel compelled to attack. The Bulgarians and Greeks were another worry. Both had designs on Constantinople and both had strong ties to the British and the Germans. A careful diplomatic game had to be played.

Click to expand...