How big a naval defeat to KO Britian in WWI?

I think almost all of us can agree that, in World War One, if the British Grand Fleet was destroyed, and the High Seas Fleet relatively intact, that Britain is more or less out of the war, and will seek terms.
On the other hand, mutual anihilation leaves Britain in a good situation, as she has more pre-dreadnoughts, and more dreadnoughts on the way.
How big a defeat at Jutland (or a similar great battle earlier in the war) would it take to bring Britain to the peace table, and at what terms.
Even a total defeat of Grand Fleet probably wouldn't, IMVHO, result in overly harsh terms, as Germany wants Britain out, so it can deal with Russia and France.
Note that I'm not commenting on the likelyhood of such a defeat, but even someone who thinks it's very unlikely can't disregard the possibility.

Well, an interesting question, one I'm trying to figure out myself, as I plan for exactly that to happen in some future naval fiction I'm doing research for. I would say that a mauling at Jutland, plus some other minor defeats will be needed.

The real naval war here is cruiser war. Britain can can use her numerous cruisers to blockade Germany at will. The problem is Germany cannot begin to deal with the cruisers until the Dreadnoughts are out of the way. Perhaps, if Britain loses all/most of her battlecruisers at Jutland, and enought Dreadnoughts to allow Germany's Battlecruisers to sweep the Atlantic of British cruisers, allow German surface raiders into the Atlantic, and endanger Britain's trade, then that might just do it.

Yes, a naval defeat at Jutland, along with a quicker pace in which Germans built there dreadnaughts.

Mikey said:

Yes, a naval defeat at Jutland, along with a quicker pace in which Germans built there dreadnaughts.

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If the Germans increase resources to Dreadnought production they will have less for the army, which doesn't help their situation.

The GF would have had to suffer a pretty big disaster at Jutland for theh British to withdraw from the war. The German window of opportunity was largely closed by mid-1916. A clash in 1914-mid-1915 could have resulted in a German victory, but it would have to be fairly decisive in light of the immanent arrival of the Queen Elizabeth and Revenge classes.

I would say that at Jutland they would have to lose 15-20 Dreadnought BBs and BCs to really upset the balance, depending on which ships are lost (15" and 13.5" ships are far more important than 12" ships).

Merely reducing the GF to the same size as the HSF will not do it. The RN's superiority in PreDreads and light forces as well as their geographical advantages would let them hold on until new construction makes up for their losses.

However a naval loss of this magnitude would result in a new government in GB--definitely Conservative dominated very likely with Bonar Law as Prime Minister.

"I would say that at Jutland they would have to lose 15-20 Dreadnought BBs and BCs to really upset the balance, depending on which ships are lost (15" and 13.5" ships are far more important than 12" ships)"


Which is one of the reasons this is very unlikely. At no point, even in 1914-15, did the HSF have the superiority in numbers in the North Sea to force an engagement in which 15-20 British dreadnough BB's could get sunk. When you look at how the British and Germans actually fought naval battles, the principal concern always became preservation of your own fleet, not destruction the enemy's. It is very unlikely the British (or Germans) would get themselves into a position where they would lose this many capital ships. Also, dreadnought BB's (though not BC's) were pretty nearly unsinkable by gunfire alone. If the Grand Fleet saw themselves in serious danger of losing precious 15" and 13.5" BB's in an engagement with the HSF, they would take advantage of their superiority in light forces and overall fleet speed to break off the engagement. This wasn't the era of Nelson and fighting against odds anymore. They might lose several BC's to gunfire and perhaps some damaged BB's would straggle and be good victims for torpedo attack, but I can't see this amounting to 20 capital ships - even if the KM Bismarck ISOT'd into the fray.

However, there is the possibility that a humiliating defeat of the GF worse that Jutland might result in a change in government making the British more willing to consider German armistice terms. In 1914-15, his might have ended the Great War. But by 1916 the German negotiating position had hardened to the point that they would have been unlikely to offer terms ANY British govt could accept.

Also, a great victory by the HSF might have led the Germans to deemphasize the submarine campaign - which WAS a naval strategy that could have directly defeated Britain.

Ingenohl in late 1914 had the opportunity to slice a substantial but minority part of the Grand Fleet up (I wrote a timeline 'Ingenohl's Glory' on this), but as stated it would reduce the overall Grand Fleet to roughly parity given new British ships about to come into effect, and the fact that the Germans though victorious are going to have a fair number in dock for repairs afterwards. In order to use such a victory to do more than change the gov't, sweep out the upper naval hierarchy etc, the one victory needs to be followed up by a second.

IMHO this is possible, but getting the right conditions would be as difficult as getting them for the first clash - i.e. very difficult. The best chance would be for the Germans to be on the offensive as part of a combined operation, but even here rushing the English Channel for example, the modern High Seas Fleet will run into the pre-dreadnoughts and light forces of the Channel Fleet before it has chance to meet the Grand Fleet (presumably rushing down from Scotland to intercept it)

Grey Wolf

At Jutland, the HSF passed through the trail end of the GF during the night while running home; this could have led to a night engagement. At night, the British advantage in numbers and range is nullified, and the Germans had superior equipment and training for night fighting, when destroyers are a far more decisive weapon. A night engagement would be unpredictable, but does provide a circumstance under which an overwhelming victory by the HSF is POSSIBLE.

How's this?

Suppose that Ingenhol does manage to trap the portion of Grand Fleet that he had a chance for historicly?
The HSF, in the wake of its success, is allowed to act agressively to consolidate its victory.
After repairs are complete, it sorties into the Channel to sink transports. The pre-dreadnougts engage, and the HSF sinks some and withdraws. If the timing is right--and Room 40 messes up--the HSF escapes a battle with the dreadnoughts, leaving the Channel Fleet in sad shape. Now you've gopt two victories in a matter of three months.
Once again, repairs are completed before the HSF tries again. A Scarborough type raid brings grand fleet out to back up the BC's trying to intercept Hipper. (I doubt that any singificant RN forces would put to sea without the entire fleet.)
Now you'e got Jutland on near even terms, with a possible sweeping victory if things go right.
Could this bring Britain to the peace table?

A detailed story I'm working on (and which you know about) will be doing some of the things you address and comes to the conclusion that the British will hold on (though I don't decimate Channel Fleet so the PreDN count is one of their internal justifications) but with a new government. This inspires the Germans to do something about Britain's geographical advantage.

One consideration is that the HSF should be out of action for at least two months after any sort of decisive win in order to repair their damaged warships. Reading Campbell I get the impression that German repair facilties would experience some bottlenecks.

In Grey Wolf's Ingenohl's Glory the RN do hold on as well and regain command of the seas in early 1916 IIRC but Germany stills wins in 1918.

Nobody seems to be looking at the problems with German ship design that would limit the impact of any (potential) victory over the GF at Jutland.

German ships had smaller bunkers than those of the British fleet, and their crew accomodations were much, much smaller. In point of fact, most German crews lived onshore in barracks, as the ships weren't considered adequate to house full crews for any significant length of time. The Germans also lacked the worldwide logistics network (bases, tankers/colliers, etc.) that the Royal Navy had in place, and lastly their crews were notoriously bad at simple shipkeeping/basic maintenance chores.

The point here is that even a very serious defeat for the Brits would probably change very little. The HSF wasn't a fleet for the high seas, it was a short-legged fleet that COULD dominate the local seas. The Brits would certainly be able to maintain an effective blockade (the ships for this weren't of the sort used in fleet actions), and there is good reason to believe that they could have continued to pursue the ASW campaign against the U-boats. The Germans (whose strategic vision was rather limited in any case) might have done a bit more coastal raiding then in OTL, and they certainly would have made communications with France more difficult/dangerous, but I suspect little more than that.

More to the point, the USN would be involved soon enough, and this would only have accelerated had the HSF gone into action beyond the NorthSea region...

Scott Rosenthal said:

More to the point, the USN would be involved soon enough, and this would only have accelerated had the HSF gone into action beyond the NorthSea region...

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Um why ? The USA only got involved because American lives were being lost, and only got reinvolved in 1917 because their previous warning was being ignored.

Grey Wolf

You are suggesting, perhaps, that the US would have remained outside the war indefinitely? The Luisitania was a fine causus belli, but it hardly seems likely to me that the US, having decided to intervene in OTL (where the allies were clearly winning), would have refrained from doing so in an ATL where the allies were in a less desirable position... It is always easy enough to find a reason to intervene, and the Central Powers were more than happy enough to provide reasons in WWI

Scott Rosenthal said:

You are suggesting, perhaps, that the US would have remained outside the war indefinitely? The Luisitania was a fine causus belli, but it hardly seems likely to me that the US, having decided to intervene in OTL (where the allies were clearly winning), would have refrained from doing so in an ATL where the allies were in a less desirable position... It is always easy enough to find a reason to intervene, and the Central Powers were more than happy enough to provide reasons in WWI

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The Lusitania is not the point. The resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare in 1917 is what is.

Your original assumption was that even if the Germans defeated the Grand Fleet and gained control of the seas, then it wouldn't matter because they would soon run into the US navy. I can see no logic for this :-

- OTL the USA did not join the war until 1917; if the Germans are winning in 1915 whats the logic there ?

- Victories on the surface would preclude EITHER the need to instigate unrestricted submarine warfare in the first place, or to resume it later

If the German navy can be seen to be the owners of the upper hand, then there is even LESS reason than OTL for the USA to intervene against them

Grey Wolf

Jutland (the battle which I believe we were using as the POD) was in 1916, not 1915, and the strategic situation for the Central Powers was very, very different by then.

As for the victory against the Royal Navy giving the Germans control of the sea, read my previous posts pointing out that nothing of the sort was likely to happen. The Germans might be able to more energetically dispute British lines of communication with France, certainly raid the British coast a bit more often, and POSSIBLY dispute (not break) the British blockade. Beyond that...not much would change, and the 'need' for unrestricted submarine warfare would remain. It isn't likely that the Germans would surrender their one essential offensive weapon at sea, no matter how successful they were in what was clearly a secondary role...

The POD never mentions Jutland, just asks how big a defeat

As to control of the sea I would think that if the High Seas Fleet can create havoc in the Channel, and even break some of the blockade, then this is sufficient a victory

Grey Wolf

Most of the discussion seemed to have centered upon Jutland, rather sensibly since there were no significant fleet actions earlier... Either way, choose your POD, the results don't differ much. Creating havoc in the channel is all well and good, but they would have to STAY there to have any strategic effect, and the HSF wasn't designed for that sort of activity. On the subject of breaking the blockade, the HSF doesn't have the right sort of ships, nor can it sustain itself on the high seas long enough to break a blockade, even if it had destroyed the core of the RN. The geography of a blockade (the central powers would have to get ships past the long coastlines of their enemies) makes it almost inconcievable that such a thing could be done...