Derek Jackson said:
WI Germany had decided on an defensive strategy in the West and to try to take a LOT of Russian territory before the Czarist empire could mobilize.
Was there ANY element in the French military that would have contemplated violating Belgium territory (or could France have persauaded Belgium to allow free passage?)
If Britain acted on the basis that it did in OTL it would declare war on France. I am fairly sure this would not happen but....
To answer your questions, no, france wouldnt have invaded belgium, they did want to take the offensive, but their plans limited it to Alsace-Lorraine first. They had zero strategic advantages to DoW Belgium. The UK would not have gotten involved right away in the war you describe either.
As for invading Russia, though, while it would have worked after awhile, they couldnt have "grabbed alot before Russia mobilized". Russia was ready, and they mobilized very fast in OTL. They just had piss poor material, organization, leadership and morale, which is another thing entirely. In other words, Germany could have defended itself in the West, but would have needed at least a couple years to roll over russia. Meanwhile, France would be a slightly more powerful foe, but Germany might be able to keep the UK out of the war meanwhile.
The strategy is winning only so far as Germany is able to knock out Russia before the UK throws its weight in. Alot of people in England wont want to wait for that to happen, but alot wont be ready to go to war without the rape of Belgium.
Its a good scenario really. "Shades of Grey" begins wonderfully on these premises.