I've been thinking about this possibility - in OTL, when Charles V decided to give up his powers he left his Spanish, Italian, and Netherlands possessions to his fiercely Catholic son Philip, who became Philip II of Spain. He left his Austrian possessions to his younger brother Ferdinand, and used his influence to get Ferdinand elected as the next Holy Roman Emperor. In many ways, this decision made sense. Philip had been raised mostly in Spain, while Ferdinand had already acted as Charles' deputy in Austria and the German lands for quite a few years. Philip and Ferdinand founded separate branches of the Hapsburg dynasty.
What if Philip II got ALL of Charles V's territories? Say that Ferdinand and Ferdinand's own son, Maximilian, both fall ill and die of the plague. In spite of some misgivings, Charles declared Philip to be his sole successor. Philip is reluctantly chosen as Holy Roman Emperor after giving solemn promises to respect the terms of the Peace of Augsburg, which allowed the local rulers within the HRE to choose whether their principalities would be Catholic or Lutheran. What happens next?
Here's 1 possibility: In the 1560s, Philip begins to ignore the terms of Augsburg and begins actively promoting the counter-Reformation. This triggers an earlier version of the 30 years' war, starting around the same time as Philip is facing growing resistance in the Netherlands. Spain pours all of its growing wealth from the "New World" into fighting Protestants in both Germany and the Low countries, while also trying to support the Guise faction in France's own Wars of Religion. Because of this, Spain does NOT have much to spare for combating the Ottomans in the Mediterranean, or the rising aggressiveness of the English. There is no battle at Lepanto, nor any Spanish armada. Taking advantage of the fighting within the HRE, the Ottomans take the parts of western Hungary that they haven't already occupied and come close to taking Vienna in 1575 and 1581 (though both efforts fail). In the 1580s, England 's short-lived attempt to settle on Roanoke Island fails, but the surviving colonists move north to the Chesapeake Bay and join new settlers to found New London (OTL Norfolk, VA), the first permanent English settlement in the Americas. By the end of the 16th century, the colonists around New London have discovered that tobacco is by far their most profitable crop. Meanwhile in Europe, butterflies mean that the King of Portugal survives his army's defeat in Morocco. Chastened by this disaster, he decides to focus on strengthening Portugal's existing overseas empire rather than going on half-baked crusading expeditions. In France, the Catholics gain the upper hand in the 1580s when Protestant leader Henri of Navarre is assassinated by a fanatical Catholic. The leader of the Guise faction is crowned King of France when Henry III dies. The Huguenots refuse to recognize him as the legitimate king, but they don't have a strong candidate of their own. Huguenot towns function more and more as self-governing city-states, bound together in an anti-Catholic alliance and receiving some covert and unofficial support from the English.
As the fighting in Germany degenerates into a nightmare of roaming mercenary armies and religious persecution, the two sides finally agree to a peace that amounts to little more than a truce after 28 years of fighting in 1591. When Philip II dies in 1598, he leaves his vast dominions to his son Philip III (same name & number, but a different person from Philip III in OTL). Protestantism has been driven out of the Hapsburg possessions in Austria, while Bohemia, Bavaria, and a few other parts of the Empire have been made secure for Catholicism. Much of the rest of the Empire is Protestant and fiercely hostile to the Hapsburgs. To the east, the Hapsburg claim to the throne of Hungary is empty, as almost all Hungary is part of the Ottoman Empire or her vassal principality of Transylvania. Ottoman-ruled Hungary has become a refuge for Protestants driven out of Austria, Bohemia, and other parts of the HRE by the Hapsburg-supported Inquisition. Most of these Protestants will gladly help the Turks in future conflicts. The northern Netherlands has survived every attempt to defeat it, while Spain's ally, the Guise King of France, still has large Huguenot regions of his kingdom that refuse to acknowledge his right to rule. England has avoided all out war with Spain while sending aid and volunteers at various times to Protestants in Germany, the Netherlands, and France.
Across the Atlantic, England now has 1 secure colony in Virginia. The King of France is about to send an expedition to reclaim lands around the St Lawrence first explored decades earlier by Cartier, while French Huguenots, Scottish Presbyterians, and English Puritans are becoming interested in new colonies to establish a strong Protestant presence in North America.
Is this plausible, or fanciful? I have an outline knowledge of the period, but I'm sure there are many important details that I missed.
What if Philip II got ALL of Charles V's territories? Say that Ferdinand and Ferdinand's own son, Maximilian, both fall ill and die of the plague. In spite of some misgivings, Charles declared Philip to be his sole successor. Philip is reluctantly chosen as Holy Roman Emperor after giving solemn promises to respect the terms of the Peace of Augsburg, which allowed the local rulers within the HRE to choose whether their principalities would be Catholic or Lutheran. What happens next?
Here's 1 possibility: In the 1560s, Philip begins to ignore the terms of Augsburg and begins actively promoting the counter-Reformation. This triggers an earlier version of the 30 years' war, starting around the same time as Philip is facing growing resistance in the Netherlands. Spain pours all of its growing wealth from the "New World" into fighting Protestants in both Germany and the Low countries, while also trying to support the Guise faction in France's own Wars of Religion. Because of this, Spain does NOT have much to spare for combating the Ottomans in the Mediterranean, or the rising aggressiveness of the English. There is no battle at Lepanto, nor any Spanish armada. Taking advantage of the fighting within the HRE, the Ottomans take the parts of western Hungary that they haven't already occupied and come close to taking Vienna in 1575 and 1581 (though both efforts fail). In the 1580s, England 's short-lived attempt to settle on Roanoke Island fails, but the surviving colonists move north to the Chesapeake Bay and join new settlers to found New London (OTL Norfolk, VA), the first permanent English settlement in the Americas. By the end of the 16th century, the colonists around New London have discovered that tobacco is by far their most profitable crop. Meanwhile in Europe, butterflies mean that the King of Portugal survives his army's defeat in Morocco. Chastened by this disaster, he decides to focus on strengthening Portugal's existing overseas empire rather than going on half-baked crusading expeditions. In France, the Catholics gain the upper hand in the 1580s when Protestant leader Henri of Navarre is assassinated by a fanatical Catholic. The leader of the Guise faction is crowned King of France when Henry III dies. The Huguenots refuse to recognize him as the legitimate king, but they don't have a strong candidate of their own. Huguenot towns function more and more as self-governing city-states, bound together in an anti-Catholic alliance and receiving some covert and unofficial support from the English.
As the fighting in Germany degenerates into a nightmare of roaming mercenary armies and religious persecution, the two sides finally agree to a peace that amounts to little more than a truce after 28 years of fighting in 1591. When Philip II dies in 1598, he leaves his vast dominions to his son Philip III (same name & number, but a different person from Philip III in OTL). Protestantism has been driven out of the Hapsburg possessions in Austria, while Bohemia, Bavaria, and a few other parts of the Empire have been made secure for Catholicism. Much of the rest of the Empire is Protestant and fiercely hostile to the Hapsburgs. To the east, the Hapsburg claim to the throne of Hungary is empty, as almost all Hungary is part of the Ottoman Empire or her vassal principality of Transylvania. Ottoman-ruled Hungary has become a refuge for Protestants driven out of Austria, Bohemia, and other parts of the HRE by the Hapsburg-supported Inquisition. Most of these Protestants will gladly help the Turks in future conflicts. The northern Netherlands has survived every attempt to defeat it, while Spain's ally, the Guise King of France, still has large Huguenot regions of his kingdom that refuse to acknowledge his right to rule. England has avoided all out war with Spain while sending aid and volunteers at various times to Protestants in Germany, the Netherlands, and France.
Across the Atlantic, England now has 1 secure colony in Virginia. The King of France is about to send an expedition to reclaim lands around the St Lawrence first explored decades earlier by Cartier, while French Huguenots, Scottish Presbyterians, and English Puritans are becoming interested in new colonies to establish a strong Protestant presence in North America.
Is this plausible, or fanciful? I have an outline knowledge of the period, but I'm sure there are many important details that I missed.
