European Alliance Prologue. v 2.0

My first contribution to the new board is a revamped version of the prelude of my old European Alliance TL. And I have made an update (finally) in my Alternate Histories site, placing the Mustafa the Pretender Timeline on its own page, üpdating the Strange Days Timeline with the last version, adding the brief story "Camlann" to the Stories section.

Well, here is the timeline.



THE EUROPEAN ALLIANCE

Prelude: Timeline of the World War II era, from Munich to Operation Olympic

Written by Antonio Cabañas​

1938

September-December: The Munich Conference. The negotiations are longer and harsher than in OTL, but the results are similar. Mussolini gains the prestige of saving the peace... and an ulcer. Several weeks later, Mussolini collapses on his desk, the ulcer has perforated the stomach wall and he is dying. He names Ciano as his successor and passes away at December 12.

A religious fanatic murders Mustafa Kemal. A pro-Axis junta takes power in Turkey.

1939

January-April: The Spanish Civil War follows similarly as in OTL, although the Italian "volunteers" are retired a bit earlier. The 3rd Reich establishes the Republic of Slovakia and the Protectorate of Bohemia-Moravia the 18 of March. The 4 of April the last republican positions in Spain surrendered. The Italians put pressure into Albania, which in the beginning tries to resist.

May-September: While Germany presents its exigencies about the Polish Corridor, Albania capitulates, and the Third Treaty of Tirana is signed, transforming Albania into an Italian protectorate. Italian military bases are being constructed inside the mountainous country. The day 30 of September, the Germans begin the invasion of Poland

October-December: Poland falls in a few weeks. The Sitzkrieg begins in the West.



1940

April: the Germans invade Denmark and Norway. The allies High command accelerate their own preparations

May-August: the Wehrmacht invades Belgium and Netherlands, confronting the allied main force. After a few weeks of a grinding advance through the Low Countries (helped by the flooding of the dikes), the Wehrmatch executes a surprise attack through the Ardennes. The penetration attack confronts an infantry force of reservists and a light armored brigade. The French troops don't panic, but heavily outnumbered and outgunned, they only serve as a small delay to the Panzers. This delay is enough, although, to redeploy allied forces to contain the attack. Italy remains neutral throughout all the campaign. In the next months the Wehrmatch takes France, but the French government, after a first moment of panic, has relocated to Algeria, and fortified Corsica. The Lutwaffe begins a series of aerial raids against Great Britain.

July-December: Operation Sealion is shelved. The U.S. Senate approves the Lend-Lease law.



1941​

March-December: King Alexander of Yugoslavia flees his imprisonment. A civil war results. Soon Croatia declares its independence from Yugoslavia and establishes a fascist government. This development worries the German High Command, because the Yugoslavian government is making clear signs to the allies. The Germans recognize the new Croatian government and begins to sell them weapons. In April, German agents give to Berlin proofs that the Yugoslavian are going to become one of the allies, a movement that could cost them dearly. The plans to attack the SU in May are delayed three weeks to allow the operations against Yugoslavia and Greece. With Bulgarian help, the German army invades Yugoslavia and overrun its army and the Greek army. The Greek front is stabilized near the Atica, thanks to the English and French forces send to help the Greeks.

On the USSR, the plans called to a two pronged attack: one toward Leningrad, and the other toward the Caucasus. Leningrad is circled, but for the Army Group South the things don't go so well, because the coldest winter of the century and the problems of logistics of the Wehrmatch make that by Christmas, they have gone back to Doneck.

Meanwhile, in the Pacific the Japanese face a dilemma. The American oil embargo make the conquer of the Netherlands East Indies imperative, but to do this they need to take Indochina, and neutralize Hong Kong and Singapore, but that would left their flank open to a possible attack by the American forces in Philippines and Hawaii. So the plan to attack all of them is drawn by the Japanese High Command. The French and English governments, worried by the Japanese movements begin a buildup of military forces in Asia.



1942[/CENTER​
]

January-April: The New Year day, early in the morning, Japanese forces attacked Indochina, Hong Kong, Philippines and Pearl Harbor. The attacks were specially severe on Pearl Harbor, where the U.S. Pacific Fleet had its headquarter. The Japanese offensive on Indochina becomes a slow conquer of the territory, while a new Japanese army used the conquered part of Indochina to attack Burma. The Japanese landing on Philippines becomes quickly a siege of a few fortified positions that the Americans had previously prepared, partly because general McArthur died on the first Japanese attack. An anglo-french fleet confronted the IJN near Singapore. Although the battle was a tactical stalemate, the anglo-french forces managed a strategic victory, because the Japanese invasion attempt was foiled.

March was ending when, using the island of Eubea as base, the Allied forces launched an amphibious attack against Salonica, and a terrestrial offensive through the Attica. A quick Axis counter-attack couldn't stop the advance, and by the 20 of April almost most of Greece were back in allied hands. Only Thrace and the northwestern part of the Greek Macedonia were still in Axis hands.

Five weeks after the battle of Singapore a combined allied-American fleet defeated an IJN fleet that were threatening Malaysia. The American help began to be felt into the Far East theatre, when the Japanese offensive on Indochina and Burma came from slow to snail-paced when the first American troops begin to arrive.

On the parade celebrating the 3rd anniversary of the end of the Spanish Civil War a sniper kills Franco. The killer is never found. His brother-in-law and Foreign Affairs Minister, Rafael Serrano Suñer is put by a provisory Junta as Chief of State.

April 29 saw the declaration of war of the United States against the Axis powers, after a rather odd incident involving the sinking of an American warship by a German U-boat.

May-September: the new German offensive in Russia and the reinforcing of the Axis forces in the Balkans almost stripped the garrisons in the West of all its quality troops, being replaced by reservists and inexperienced recruits. The amphibian operation against Salonica had filled the Allied High Command with confidence of their capacity to carry full-fledged amphibian operations, and they begin to plan landings on Northern and Southern France by June.

The new German offensive in Russia included a holding action to Army Group North, including the surrender of Leningrad, a thrust toward Moscow by Army Group Center, and an offensive that intended to isolate the Caucasus by Army Group South. The offensive started well, but the Russians hadn't been idle in the winter. Although still clumsy by German standards, the Russians were showing a better comprehension of the armored combat than the preceding year, and they still had more tanks and men than the Germans.

June 16 was the beginning of Operation Grip: simultaneous amphibious landings on Dieppe, Normandy, Calais and Toulouse. The landings on Dieppe were a failure, but as it was intended as a diversion, the obvious failures in the landing proceeding didn't worry the Allied High Command. Normandy and Toulouse saw the first American troops being deployed in Europe. The German troops proved difficult to subdue, but when the reinforcements arrived to France in the first week of July, the allied troops controlled almost all the French South coast and more landings had been made on Northern France, in Calais. This last landing was a failure, because they faced troops that had been blooded in the Balkan and the Russian front.

The troops sent to the West were soon missed in the Balkan front, but the plans were progressing well in the Eastern Front. Stalingrad was taken on July and by the end of August the German troops were as far South as Krasnodar. Then Turks troops crossed the Turkish-Soviet frontier and pro-Axis elements in the Iraqi government and Army staged a coup. In a first moment, it seemed that the coup would succeed. But the quick response of the majority of the army, loyal to the king, and the help by British and French troops in the Middle East, soon pressed the rebels in the northern part of the country.

In the Balkan front Allied troops cross the Greek northern frontier the first day of August. The entry of Turkey on the war stopped the allied advance to the north, but the Turk offensive in Europe was soon contained.

In the Pacific no side had enough naval forces to drive back the other, resulting in attrition war, that the allies were winning thanks to the superior industrial capacity of the U.S. and the fact that allies submarines were sinking more Japanese merchant ships that they were able to build. On land, the Japanese offensives into Burma and French Indochina were finally stopped, and the danger of an entry of Thailand in the war was finally avoided, using quite harsh methods. On July the Japanese tried a landing on Borneo, but the British and Dutch garrisons had been reinforced by American troops and by the end of September the last Japanese troops in Borneo surrendered.

September-December: when the autumn rains start the German offensive begin to lose steam, and gives the Red Army the moment to breath that they need. The reinforcements on the Southern Caucasus front contained the Turk offensive, while the Turks face an allied invasion from the South, once that the Iraqi rebels have been subdued. When the winter come, the Germans begin their offensive again, coming to the gates of Moscow... and facing a Soviet counterattack on their exposed North flank. Army Group Center is soon caught between the Red Army and the Moscow fortifications and annihilated. Anglo-French troops operating from Northern Iraq and Persia made contact with Soviet troops in the Caucasus after driving back the Turks around Christmas.

On the Western front the Germans are driving back slowly the allies in France. The Germans thinks that they can contain the allied advance on Aquitaine, when allied armies, that included Spanish and Portuguese troops, cross the almost unguarded Spanish border. Serrano Suñer and Salazar had been engaging in negotiations with the allies, when the German defeat seemed certain. When 1943 started, the German positions in France are reduced to Alsace-Lorraine, and a line that run from the Swiss frontier to Cannes.

In the Balkans the crumbling of the western front is having deep effect, allowing the allies to take almost all Albania and the Serbian Macedonia. An unofficial cease of fire between Bulgaria and the allies allow King Boris to redeploy his armies, frantically readying his country for changing sides. Greek troops enter Istanbul December 16.

In the Pacific, the unbalance between both sides begins to be clear. The Japanese army begins to retreat from Burma and at December 29 the French takes Vientiane and, on an amphibious landing, Haiphong the 31. The Americans, after taking the Marianas in one of the hardest amphibious operations ever realized, lands on Mindanao at December 11. When the years ends, the Japanese hold in the island is limited to the northwestern part. On the Leyte Gulf the sea power of the IJN is finally broken, in the biggest naval battle since Jutland.



1943​

January-March: The destruction of Army Group Center is followed by a purge of the German High Command. But the German armies aren’t on the offensive anymore, and they are facing a war in three fronts: France, the Balkans and Russia. The day 15 of January saw the beginning of a German offensive in France, which was intended to be a holding action to give them time to end the fortifications on the Rhine. The offensive fulfilled its purpose, and the advance of the allies on France was broken.

But the defeat seemed certain and a new group joined the conspirators against Hitler. Mainly conservative generals and politicians who had supported Hitler on the beginning formed this group. This group was partial to quick and ruthless actions and at February 21, only blind luck saved Hitler from the bomb, which had been placed in his car, although he was severely wounded. Many people whose relation with the bomb was incidental was killed and only a few were spared, although destined to concentration camps, like Franz Von Papen.

On the Balkans, in January 7 Bulgaria changed sides. Although the Germans soon overran a good part of the country, the allies continued their unstoppable advance. Pec fell at January 30 and Nis at February 25. Sofia was back on allied hands by the end of March.

On the Russian front the destruction of Army Group Center was the key fact on the crumbling of the German front. The Soviet offensive was contained in Ukraine, and the siege of Leningrad had to be lift and the position fell back to the Baltic. Turkey surrendered at March 17, when the Anglo-French armies controlled almost all the eastern third of the country.

In the Pacific the situation was grim. Allied troops crossed the Chinese frontier on January 18. Successive amphibious operations had the Philippines back in American hands at the end of March, and the next stage of the American campaign was clear: Formosa. Hainan fell to an almost exclusively French landing operation at March 23.

March-June: a timid advance followed the German offensive on January in March, but soon the terrain was reconquered. Lille fell at April 14, Mons April 29, Bruxelles May 11. The Germans intended to make a last stand in Antwerp, but the allies avoided a street-by-street fighting that would have been pointless. By June the Germans were cornered against the Rhine.

On the Balkans Sarajevo fell at April 30, and Belgrade was under siege by the end of June. Bulgaria had been almost fully conquered. On the East the German armies are reduced to try to contain the Soviet army, but the Soviet army crossed the old Soviet-Polish frontier by the end of June.

On the Pacific, the advance through China progresses steadily, and the invasion of Formosa is carried at June 19.

July-September: the main event of this period wasn’t a military affair, but the meeting of the four main allied leaders on Teheran: Roosevelt, Stalin, Churchill and Pétain. Here after a lengthy time of deliberations the partition of Germany was agreed, with the frontier between the Western Allies zones and the soviet zone in the Elbe, and they agreed that the eastern frontier of Germany would be placed in the Oder.

On July a big river cross operation was attempted on the Rhine, but the main thrust of the operation was a full failure. The secondary thrust was a success, but the operation in balance was a failure. On the Balkans, the main direction of the ally advance shifted toward Austria and Hungary, not bothering with Romania, soon to be overran by the Red Army, anyway. Belgrade fell July 28, Sarajevo August 31, and Zagreb September 29. On the eastern front the soviet advance continued relentless, and East Prussia was almost fully conquered at September 25. The soviet army entered Romania in mid-July.

In the Pacific the next step of the operations was Okinawa, but it wasn’t an easy conquest. Although the landing was executed at August 10, by the end of September a good part of the island was still in Japanese hands. The Soviet armies began to occupy Manchuria in September.

October-December: finally the Rhine was crossed and the Western Allies armies began to pour into Germany. When the year ended, the front was in the line Bremerhaven-Nüremberg-Linz, and the allies armies had almost conquered Austria, and overrun Hungary west of the Danube (the eastern part was conquered by the Russians). On the North the Red Army was nearing Warsaw.

On the Pacific the Americans had finally conquered Okinawa and began to prepare Operation Olympic, the conquest of Kyushu, followed of Operation Coronet, the landing on Kanto plain.



1944​

January-March: the western allies crossed the Ruhr, and the Elbe. But the Soviets arrived to Berlin first. Hitler killed himself in the bunker. And the last German troops surrendered at April 3.

The soviets had overrun Manchuria and were beginning to occupy Korea.

April-June: At April 15, the allies launch Operation Olympic, and although faced with a stiff resistance, the island had been conquered by the beginning of June. Most of the Japanese High Command chose suicide, and Japan surrendered at June 27. World War II had ended

Consequences of the War: The war has left the United States with a overestimated importance of the military power of Western Europe, thanks to their great performance in the war. As a consequence of this performance, the isolationist wings of both parties are growing again, and they are influencing politics of leaving in Europe only a token military presence, while focusing in the Pacific. This adds to the decision of Roosevelt of not running for a fourth term, with the Democrat Party giving an opportunity to Henry Wallace to run for the presidency. Wendell Wilkie is the most likely Republican candidate to oppose him.

Korea has been totally overrun by the USSR, as is Manchuria. Romania, Slovakia, Poland and East Germany are in soviet hands, and Hungary and Serbia have an important presence of communist forces on their political spectrum.

The Turkish Thrace went to Greece, with Istambul being put under the jurisdiction of the newly established United Nations. All the Jonic islands and some cities on the Jonic coast of Turkey are now in Greek hands. From Eastern Turkey, independents Armenian and Kurdish nations are established. Some minor changes in the Serbian-Bulgarian border, and Poland gets almost the same borders than in OTL, although the western border is set in the Oder, rather than the Oder-Neisse (I think that it's spelled this way).

Ciano is slowly reforming the fascist regime in Italy to go back to democracy around 1950. Serrano has similar plans for Spain, coupled with the restoration of the monarchy in the person of the legitimate heir, Juan de Borbón.

Some notes by the Author: If this timeline seems quite implausible, well, I also think that. This was the one less flawed of the lot. The more obvious weakness are the slow conquest of France, the seemingly unending supply of allied troops and the relative weakness of Japan relative to OTL.​
 
I should have said that stablishing Armenia and Kurdistan in Eastern Turkey was only intended. In fact the Middle East is going to be even worse ITTL than in OTL.
 
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