Islamic Bulgaria: effects on 19th century and WWI?

If the Ottoman empire had converted the Bulgarians to Islam, how would it have affected the 19th century Balkans, and later the First World War?

Would Russia aim to directly annex Wallachia and Bulgaria, rather than creating independent states? If the Ottomans still controlled Bulgaria come the outbreak of World War I, how would it affect the alliance system in the areas. Would the rise of the nationalist Young Turks provoke a Bulgarian attempt to gain independence?

earlier effects

George Carty said:

If the Ottoman empire had converted the Bulgarians to Islam, how would it have affected the 19th century Balkans, and later the First World War?

Would Russia aim to directly annex Wallachia and Bulgaria, rather than creating independent states? If the Ottomans still controlled Bulgaria come the outbreak of World War I, how would it affect the alliance system in the areas. Would the rise of the nationalist Young Turks provoke a Bulgarian attempt to gain independence?

Click to expand...

Noticeable deviations from the OTL will start appearing in XIX c. during the
Turco-Russian Wars. The Russian army will have no chance of approaching
Istambul as it did in 1878 because of the need to cross an adverse teritory.
Henseforth, no San Stephano talks and treaty. This was "canelled" lared by
the meeting in Berlin but it is likely Russia will plunge in political trouble
earlier - say 1890's instead of 1905.

earlier effects

George Carty said:

If the Ottoman empire had converted the Bulgarians to Islam, how would it have affected the 19th century Balkans, and later the First World War?

Would Russia aim to directly annex Wallachia and Bulgaria, rather than creating independent states? If the Ottomans still controlled Bulgaria come the outbreak of World War I, how would it affect the alliance system in the areas. Would the rise of the nationalist Young Turks provoke a Bulgarian attempt to gain independence?

Click to expand...

Noticeable deviations from the OTL will start appearing in XIX c. during the
Turco-Russian Wars. The Russian army will have no chance of approaching
Istambul as it did in 1878 because of the need to cross an adverse teritory.
Henseforth, no San Stephano talks and treaty. This was "canelled" lared by
the meeting in Berlin but it is likely Russia will plunge in political trouble
earlier - say 1890's instead of 1905.

Things would diverge way before the 19th c; if the Ottomans had decided to convert the Bulgars, it would have been in the 14th-15th c. The Ottoman Empire would have been a bit more Muslim, and the Russians would not have sought to increase their influence in the Balkans through Bulgaria.

There might very well still be an Ottoman Empire in this case; rarely known, the "Danube Province" actually had a Muslim majority at the start of the Russo-Ottoman War.

The policy of tolerance for the Christians was decided upon when the Empire was at high-tide, but long term it proved to be a huge mistake.

"The policy of tolerance for the Christians was decided upon when the Empire was at high-tide, but long term it proved to be a huge mistake."

There's obviously a moral to this. When will people learn to appreciate the simple beauty of oppression?

Bulgaria was never anything more than a backwater province of the
Ottoman Empire. There were a few early uprisings but I doubt that
they would have changed the course of hisory very much.

I like your point about the Russian interestes on the Bolkans being
reinforsed by the presence of a large Christian Bulgaria... However,
the same could happend considering the Serbians alone. So the
Russo-Turcis wars will go on schedule, perhaps only slightly
diffferent than the OTL.

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:

There might very well still be an Ottoman Empire in this case; rarely known, the "Danube Province" actually had a Muslim majority at the start of the Russo-Ottoman War.

Click to expand...

Why is Bulgaria now solidly Christian then? Conversion to Christianity by force didn't work in Spain, and the Spanish monarchy was ultimately forced to expel or exterminate its Muslim (and Jewish) populations. Was it simply that the (backward and reactionary) Ottoman Empire didn't attract the same level of support as the (progressive for its era) al-Andalus?

Or was most of the Muslim population of "Rumelia" Turkish colonists rather than Bulgarian converts?

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:

There might very well still be an Ottoman Empire in this case; rarely known, the "Danube Province" actually had a Muslim majority at the start of the Russo-Ottoman War.

Click to expand...

Why is Bulgaria now solidly Christian then? Conversion to Christianity by force didn't work in Spain, and the Spanish monarchy was ultimately forced to expel or exterminate its Muslim (and Jewish) populations. Was it simply that the (backward and reactionary) Ottoman Empire didn't attract the same level of support as the (progressive for its era) al-Andalus?

Or was most of the Muslim population of "Rumelia" Turkish colonists rather than Bulgarian converts?

There are Turks in Bulgaria--back in the late 1980s, the Bulgarian Communist gov't tried to distract the people from its failings by oppressing them.

There are also indigenous converts to Islam in Bulgaria--I believe they're called the Pomaks.

Even if most of the Muslims were Turkish colonists, killing them or expelling them en masse (unless they were actively fighting for the Ottoman gov't) would have been immoral.

^By today standards, yes. But it is quite good solution when dealing with two populations that hate each other's guts.

And to convert more Bulgarians, Ottomans would need to pursue more agressive converting policy across all tables, which would result in more Muslims everywhere and even more alienated Christians.

Depending on who conts, there is a 7-15% of muslim minority in Bulgaria now.
It is hard to count because many of these people have double citizenship and
often travel/live/work in both Bulgaria and Turkey.

Back in XIV c. Bulgaria was solid Christian. Even by the time of the liberation
war between Russia and Turkey in 1878 the overall majority was Christian. But
there were regions dominated but Muslims - i.e. around the town of Shoumen
and in the Southern part of what is contemporary Bulgaria (the Rodopy Mountain).

There have been a number of Muslim exoduses ane the one in the 80's was
just the latest. Perhaps not even the latest because the defficult economical
situation in the earli 90's also drove a lot of people to look for jobs and better
life in Turkey. A turkish-dominated party is a major player in the political life of
the country so I am reluctant to contribute the 90's' exodius to political
opression.

Back to history - many muslims left Bulgaria immediately after or even during
the Liberation war in 1878-80, being afraod of prosecution. Later on a similar
thing happened around the time of the Bolkan War. These processes have
slowly nled away the Muslim populaiton to the current level.