Stalin goes west 1945

Xen

Banned
As OTL stands it is out of Stalin's character to attack the west after World War II ended in 1945. However if we change things in Moscow then it could become conceivable.

Let us say that the Red Army couldn't loot and plunder eastern Europe for their own benefit. The Nazi's had devestated it far too bad for the Soviets and their meager economy to handle. Due to the poor economy, Stalin neglects to declare war on Japan leaving a US and UK alliance to to invade Korea. The allies get some help from Mao who attacks Manchuria with support of the RAF and the USAAF. After the US drops the nuclear bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan surrendors. The war appears over and the allies begin to dismantle their forces and send them home.

Food shortages at home erupts into a riot in Moscow that later turns into a Massacre when the Red Army opens fire on starving rioters, killing over 1000 in 48 hours. Stalin begins to fear a coup led by the army unless he is able to pass the buck. In a speech he gives to the Russian people he blames the US and UK for trying to starve Russia and was plotting to turn the Soviet Union into a Capitalist dictatorship. Accusing well known Generals from the recent war of plotting with the American's, Stalin began yet another purge of the Army.

Word of Stalin's speech reached London and Washington, causing great concern among the allies. Prime Minister Atlee, President Truman and General DeGualle met in Paris. DeGualle, in spite of his past differences with Washington made it clear to Truman that France would do its part if the Soviet Union would attack. Truman and Atlee discussed the possibility of re-arming the German Army, an idea opposed by DeGualle.

Stalin used the Paris meeting between the allies as propaganda, spreading the word, the allies were plotting against the Soviet Union. Reading over his intelligence, Stalin was told the US had exhausted its nuclear weapons in the war with Japan and would be months away from completing another. Stalin's inner circle convinced him that if Soviet Supremecy acted quick enough, that the US and UK could be pushed out of mainland Europe ending the war leaving the wealth of Europe to Stalin.

In November 1945, months after World War II ended, the world woke to a shock when Soviet troops invaded West Berlin, killing many American, British and French troops garrisoning the city. Truman addressed congress the following day asking for a declaration of war "Yesterday, Stalin and the Red Army sacked Berlin, unless we stop them, tomorrow they will be in Paris, next week they will be in London, and next month they will be in New York. Will we let the sacrafice of so many of America's sons be for nothing. Those who died liberating France, Italy and Germany from Hitler shall not have died in vein." A war exhausted United States and its war exhausted ally United Kingdom declared war on the Soviet Union. World War III had begun.
 

Valamyr

Banned
Is the bit about exhausted nuclear weapons historically true? I knew there was only a handful.

If so, how long, under life or death conditions, to make two more?
 

Xen

Banned
From my understandings the United States had one left, they were saving it for Tokyo I believe but Japan surrendored first, thankfully.

At this point all three major WWII powers have an elaborate intelligence system, so its possible the USSR could have known about the other weapon, on the other hand its possible the US could have led Soviet spies astray. I went with what Grey Wolf calls the coin flip option, it favored the US, What the US needs to do is transport this bomb where it can not be seen by Soviet spies and get it to a place where it can be in striking distance of a major USSR city, Leningrad comes to mind, but so does Stalingrad. To get to Stalingrad depends if Turkey joins the western allies or if they remain neutral. It doesnt seem likely theyd join the USSR.
 
Valamyr said:
Is the bit about exhausted nuclear weapons historically true? I knew there was only a handful.

If so, how long, under life or death conditions, to make two more?

Historically, the last two bombs of the original batch were expended at the Bikini Atoll tests, and if they weren't used, radioactive decay would have made them useless pretty soon. A-Bomb production restarted in 1949. Of course, given a USSR attack, the production line wouldn't have been shut down.
 

Xen

Banned
Does anyone have any idea of how the war might go?

Would Franco get involved in a war with the Soviet Union? How would the communists of Spain, Italy and France react to a Soviet invasion? How far could the Red Army advance before the battle hardened American and British Army stopped them? Could they stop the Soviets? Would Truman only accept an unconditional surrendor? Whose side does Mao take? Would the US rearm the Germans and Japanese to have them fight the Soviets at their side?

I honestly thought this idea would spark some intrest, I guess I was wrong seeing how few responses it has received.
 
Would Stalin risk pushing on further into the West with the threat of Atomic attack hanging over his head? I mean, if we're saying there's one bomb left, couldn't the West drop it on Leningrad and then say "Ok Ivan, you withdraw right now or it's goodbye Moscow"? How's Stalin gonna know it's a bluff? Would he risk it?
 
No, no... This is all good stuff!...

If Stalin suges ahead, perhaps knowing that the West dosent have a bomb,
It would be interesting to see what Franco would have done... I mean, the Communists in the various countries would rise up i'm sure and France and Britain would need all the help they could get. I suppose an uneasy alliance between Spain and the others would arise.... In this case, i think Stalin could be stopped before he reached Paris...
 
If Patton knew something was afoot prior to the Soviet attack on the West, he would have already been re-arming the million or so German POWs the Western Allies had captured during the last remaing months of the war...
 

Xen

Banned
Intresting I was at a website about Changing the Times when I came across one where Stalin attacked Britain and the US. However there is something that caught my eye

The Battle of the Rhine was the single worst battle ever won by the western allies in the entire history of warfare. Fought in July 1945 in dropping snow and terrible cold, 47 British and American divisions, 14 of which were armoured, faced off against 170 Russian divisions, 30 of which were armoured.

Does it snow along the Rhine in July? I live in the Appalachain Mountains, it doesnt snow in July here unless its a freak weather occurance.
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
I don't live along the Rhine but I'm still pretty sure it doesn't snow there in July. I don't think it snows in Fairbanks or Calgary in July.

Its a very interesting scenario but I think one minor change might make it more believable. Have Stalin attack the Allies because he truly thinks they are about to attack him. for one reason or another. As you know, that was one logical course for the Western Allies and I'll lay money Stalin was watching for any sign it might happen. Perhaps he might even have delusions that they've contacted the revolutionaries in his Army.

Having him do it for the reasons you're giving seems very unlikely. Sending exhausted troops into another war might just as easily bring on the mutiny as well as quell it. Also, it would have to be a last-ditch thing on Stalin's part. What you're having him do is take on his former allies AND his enemies, as the West would almost certainly re-arm the Germans in time. Why shouldn't they? Hitler is dead and the Nazis are toothless in the Post war world. They've been defeated once and their industry is mostly destroyed or in Western hands. The real enemy of the West is now Stalin.

Oh, and don't count Japan out, by any means. The Japanese Army in China particularly was probably the least defeated Axis corps left in the world.
 
NapoleonXIV said:
I don't live along the Rhine but I'm still pretty sure it doesn't snow there in July. I don't think it snows in Fairbanks or Calgary in July.

Its a very interesting scenario but I think one minor change might make it more believable. Have Stalin attack the Allies because he truly thinks they are about to attack him. for one reason or another. As you know, that was one logical course for the Western Allies and I'll lay money Stalin was watching for any sign it might happen. Perhaps he might even have delusions that they've contacted the revolutionaries in his Army.

Having him do it for the reasons you're giving seems very unlikely. Sending exhausted troops into another war might just as easily bring on the mutiny as well as quell it. Also, it would have to be a last-ditch thing on Stalin's part. What you're having him do is take on his former allies AND his enemies, as the West would almost certainly re-arm the Germans in time. Why shouldn't they? Hitler is dead and the Nazis are toothless in the Post war world. They've been defeated once and their industry is mostly destroyed or in Western hands. The real enemy of the West is now Stalin.

Oh, and don't count Japan out, by any means. The Japanese Army in China particularly was probably the least defeated Axis corps left in the world.

The Soviet economy was running on fumes and was pretty dependent on Lend Lease. The US was the only Great Power that didn't even level out and it could have easily increased the size of its army and army air force.
 
Oh, and don't count Japan out, by any means. The Japanese Army in China particularly was probably the least defeated Axis corps left in the world.


what that army was destroyed when the soviets invaded at the end of the war. The Germany troops in northern italy were the best standing axis troops left.
 
The mention of a second purge while possible assuring Stalin's mania of a loyal officer corps would have had terrible consequences on the Red Army and would have eliminated the sudden rebound of military competence and professionalism accumulated in the Great Patriotic War. Stalin wouldn't have gone west anyway he had already by the end of the war gotten nearly all of eastern Europe in his orbit. The most plossible scenario for a flair up to open war was if Patton had lived and stayed in active service in Germany. America had the bomb they could have shipped it to Europe openly to let Stalin know they he must respect the allied wishes concerning the fate of Eastern Europe as proposed at Yalta. This could have been the spark for an immediate third world war or at least viewed as an extension of the second.
 

blysas

Banned
Look let's just stick to the thread. Stailn invades Western Europe, he will overrun Berlin and the River Elbe.If he is quick enough the Soviet army with help from other bits and pieces from the Polish troops mightreach the Rhine. The problem is after that is that the allies will uses it as a last srand scenraio. If the soviets can break through the Rhine, they might have a chance of reaching France.

The other problem I find when seeing these threads about Stalin attacking the west is that everyone expects the the Armecians can launch an attack within the first few days. The reality is that it takes a coulpe of months to train the crew and transpoet it to the right airfeild and then finally finding a city to nuke.

If we had the Soviets breaking through the Rhine. However, they fail to push through competly, we might see the Aremican commanders deciding to use the bomb on a russian city. Tge problem is that if you were to nuke a random city, let's say stalingrad. It will affect that region but it wouldn't mean the war i going to end.

Now my question to you now of Stalin attacs the West, how far and how long will the war be carried out ?
cOMMENTS ?
 
Would the German army/air force be rectivated?
If it was wonder how long it would take and how large it would be?
Also how long would German industry would take to get back to full production?

As the saying goes "evey bit helps"
 
One thing thats overloocked in every wwIII senario I ever seen is Eastern Europe. Will they rebell? Then Stalin would have a hell of a logistical problem if West supports the rebells. And what about the loyalty of the intelligense service. They would be filled with 1930's generation, and communism was pretty popular back then.
 
Originally posted by Berra
One thing thats overloocked in every wwIII senario I ever seen is Eastern Europe. Will they rebell? Then Stalin would have a hell of a logistical problem if West supports the rebells. And what about the loyalty of the intelligense service. They would be filled with 1930's generation, and communism was pretty popular back then.

I can not speak for all Eastern Europe, but Poland would surely rebell or at least start guerilla warfare (in OTL some of the partisant units lasted till 1947, without any support from the West). Polish underground could count on SOE's help, but most important is, they would have hope again. It is also hard to say, how the Polish army would react to war against Allies: communist control might not be strong enough.
OTOH, it is also hard to say how effective that rebelion would be. After Soviets treacherously arrested leaders of Polish underground state, AK (Armia Krajowa - Home Army) was in very serious trouble. It also lost a lot of soldiers in Operation "Burza" (Storm), when they often fought together with Soviets soldiers, only to be later arrested by NKVD. And don't forget the hecatomb of Warsaw Uprising.
However, I believe Polish underground movement could indeed make a merry hell with Soviet logistics, especially if the Allies started drop supplies again.
 
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