Neutral Virginia?

In our timeline the state of Kentucky initially declared its neutrality in the Civil War. As long as they kept it up the Union was forced to run the war around them.

Now what if Virginia joins them, instead of seceding from the United States? That would limit the available fronts for the war to along the Mississippi. Would Kentucky and Virginia be able to hold on to their neutrality longer by presenting a united front and sending veiled threats of secession?

There's obviously no West Virginia in this scenario.

Thoughts?

maybe they secede on their own?

Who, the West Virginians? Uh...why?

Admiral Matt said:

In our timeline the state of Kentucky initially declared its neutrality in the Civil War. As long as they kept it up the Union was forced to run the war around them.

Now what if Virginia joins them, instead of seceding from the United States? That would limit the available fronts for the war to along the Mississippi. Would Kentucky and Virginia be able to hold on to their neutrality longer by presenting a united front and sending veiled threats of secession?

There's obviously no West Virginia in this scenario.

Thoughts?

Click to expand...

The US uses Virginia and Kentucky as buffer states and pours troops into the west. Washington DC is never threatened so it frees up a lot of troops.

Well, obviously I agree. However the Mississippi offers only limited options for attackers, especially given the virtually non-existant transportation infrastructure out west at the time.

There's a thought: development of the west (and eventually the Intercontinental Railroad) ought to be a little faster.

In the long run, though, the neutrality thing will fail as it did in our TL. The question then is whether Virginia gives up easy like Kentucky did or whether they go over to the Confederates. I'd bet on the former.

if virginia leads kentucky to the CSA side expect a longer civil war ending in a final stand at montgomory alabama. The enraged union troops kill everyone trapped in the city. There is no formal surrender.

Brilliantlight said:

The US uses Virginia and Kentucky as buffer states and pours troops into the west. Washington DC is never threatened so it frees up a lot of troops.

Click to expand...

That actually would have created some problems for the Union...if Lincoln wants to avoid pushing Virginia, as well as Kentucky, into the Confederacy, basically Union troops can't enter either State (as Lincoln treated Kentucky in OTL). And, in such a scenario, it is very likely that Missouri also might declare it's neutrality. So basically, the Union has two options...It can make seaborne landings on the Confederate coastline, or it can to transport all of it's troops to Cairo, Illinois (and/or St. Louis, if Missouri doesn't declare neutrality) and then transport it's armies southward via the Mississippi River. Both of these options will be limited by the availability of transport vessels...which will not only have to transport troops but the supplies they need to carry on the campaign, since there will be no direct land supply routes available. The Confederacy is freed from having to defend a huge area of border and can concentrate in west Tennessee and east Arkansas. The war would be much more difficult for the Union under these circumstances. Indeed, the problems would be such that Lincoln would almost certainly have to violate the neutrality of these states, probably pushing all three into the Confederacy.

I see no reason why resupply would be a problem for the Union. The majority of Missisippi steamers fell into their hands and they could out produce the south a disgustingly large amount.

McClellan was greatly infavor of sea invasions(penisular campaign anyone). I think the war might end sooner, probably summer of '64.

Potentially of great use to the north in the war, for the first year. Plenty of time to build up forces, develop industry, etc and absolutely no means for the south to do anything about it. As a result, more forces go west early on and Missouri is never in doubt, and Arkansas falls by late 1861. A new center of invasion forms, seizing the west side of the Mississippi, possibly pushing as far south as Louisiana by the end of 1861.

The south, stripped of the richest of the eleven states, with the greatest industry(YES! Even after West Virginia left), is in desperate straits, not to mention that officers from Virginia may not be available. By 1862 they simply have no choice but to take the war into Kentucky, as they did OTL, doing so in a weaker condition. Possibly 'western' officers like Grant and Sherman come to the fore sooner? No CSS Virginia, no weapons industry seized from Harper's Ferry, no Robert E Lee, not looking good.

By late 1862, the US may well have retaken the area west of the Mississippi, except for portions of Texas, and be plowing into northern Alabama and Mississippi eastward. Reduced to the SE corner the CSA doesn't last through 1863.

Also please note that several of the states that left the Union did so in ways that could at best be termed 'questionable'. There was serious irregularity in the actions taken AND serious fear that an 'independent' nation just sitting there but getting nowhere in terms of recognition might result in a backlash with some states seriously considering negotiations to rejoin the USA. If one or two had, the entire CSA might have fallen apart, or been forced to negotiate for terms while it was still 11 states and not in several smaller groups.

How about Maryland in this scenario ? Would Baltimore also stay neutral ?

Actually, this thread also raised in my mind- WI the OTL border states actually declared for the Confederacy after Lincoln announces an Emancipation Proclamation ? How much will the Union cause be adversely affected had Maryland, Missouri, and Kentucky fully gone over to the CSA based on being slave states themselves ?

Maryland wasnt in a position to rebel. Since this is after Antietam, The south wont be in a position to help, and the Lincoln would put a stop to any convention. OTL the govenor was a unionist and it was he that prevented a seccesion convention. I doubt he would call one after a major union victory.

Kentucky is mostly in Union hands, with the exception of an invading confederate army that was outnumbered and outgunned. Abe wont lewt them go either.

Missouri (the important parts) was in mostly union hands by the emanciation proclamation, and had a large union pop., so they wont be going anywhere.