The Second Korean War 1994

Not many people realize how close we came to a war with North Korea in 1994, relations were quite tense that year, like they are now, except I believe worse. In April 1994, it declared the Military Armistice Commission void and withdrew its representatives. It also started a nuclear program which the United States considered sending a few cruise missiles to shut the facility down. This of course would likely have resulted in a war, a very bloody one at that. So lets play this shall we?

In June 1994 the UN Security Council were scheduled to meet to discuss sanctions on North Korea, in OTL Jimmy Carter helped resolve this with discussions with Kim Jung Il. However if there is one thing Kim Jung Il is not, is rational. The North Korean despot grows angry with Carter and orders him out of the country. The former US President is flown to the DMZ and is allowed to cross as he did days earlier. Carter is rushed to Seoul where he contacts President Clinton warning that sanctions placed on North Korea would result in war.

Days later the UNSC meets, hoping North Korea is only bluffing, they pass sanctions against the battered communist regime. Kim Jung Il immediatly orders his troops along the DMZ to attack. The South Korean and American defenders had been ordered into battle ready positions, and were prepared for the attack.

The first week of the war was particularly bloody, news media's reported up to 3,000 American Soldiers, 5,000 ROK Soldiers, and 14,000 North Koreans were killed along the DMZ. Just as the fighting had ended 41 years before, so it began anew in a dead stalemate.

Anti-war protests were staged in almost every major city in the world, while President Clinton worked the phones in Washington. An emergency NATO summit congregated in Brussels to discuss further actions against North Korea. The Netherlands, Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada and France agreed to send troops to help their ally in the fight against the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea. Australia, Poland and Japan agreed to send troops joining South Korea as the only non NATO nations involved in the conflict. President Clinton received assurances from Russia and China they wouldnt interfere, China payed only lip service to Korea knowing it could not afford a war with the United States and its allies.

In the weeks following the renewal of hostilities, the US and ROK had barely pushed past the DMZ. The western media's praised the allied occupation of border towns Kuum-ni and P'anmunjom-ni. The Europeans and Japanese began to filter onto the Korean Peninsula, the wars out come still seemed uncertain. The North Koreans were well motivated, trained, equipped and loyal. All attempts to negotiate with Jung-Il were futile as the Korean dictator demands were unrealistic for the allies to meet including 15 miles of South Korea, 45 billion US dollars, and the trial of South Korean and American military leaders, as well as Bill Clinton. He also demanded the US military leave the Korean Peninsula.

There was no end to the war in sight, and it appeared it can only be resolved through total victory.

Aren't we, technically, still at war with the North Koreans? No peace treaty was signed at the end of the Korean War only a cease-fire agreement.

I suppose that just as there can be undeclared wars, there can be undeclared peace.

I suppose you can say the Korean War 1950-53 and the Korean War 1994 I am writing about can be rolled into one. There was no peace treaty but an Cease Fire which stopped the conflict. This timeline is about the renewal of hostilities.

Whats the point of bringing this up?

Any comments about what Ive written here so far?

Xen said:

Whats the point of bringing this up?

Click to expand...

LoL, sorry. I was just wondering if anyone else knew anything about that. Other than that, I think what you have written is good. Please, continue...

Japanese troops saw their first combat for the first time since 1945 when they were called in to reinforce ROK forces at Kaesong. F-15s and F-16s from the USAF pounded North Korean positions around the city, but the Communists were as determined as ever to hold. The actual town changed hands 5 times before it was secured by the allies.

The North Korean invasion of the South reached its furthest extent at Ch'orwon. American and Royal Marines struggled to keep the city from falling to the North. The Communist troops were flanked by the French from the rear and fell victim to allied air power. With their supply line cut off, and food running short 184 North Korean troops surrendered.

Just as it had done a few years before in the Gulf War, Air Power was in full favor of the allies. Against the might of the combined allied air forces, North Korean formations, and bases were devestated, the line of communications destroyed and morale was quickly slipping. The North learned they're military equipment was archaic when comapred to the modern capabilites of the west.

After a month long air campaign against North Korea, the allies unleashed their ground war. A lightning quick march north, only stopping to fight scattered resistence. The allies blitz quickly seized control of the coast to the Sea of Japan to Wonson before turning west. The North Korean battle tactic had changed from hoping to overrun as the Chinese did in the 1950s to defending Pyongyang. Kim Jung-Il told his commanders if they must, they should sacrafice the eastern coast, but the allies must not be allowed to enter Pyongyang.

As they inched closer to North Korea's capital the allies encountered heavy resistence. The bloodiest being a battle between the German and American allies against the North Korean guerilla at Yangdok. The battle forced the allies to retreat and opened up a second phase of allied air assault or Northern strongholds. Though softened up a bit by the second allied air campaign, the resistence to the west remained strong. Kim Jung-Il had a change of heart in his previous demands for peace. Now he offered the west to return to the Demarcation Line decided in 1953.

The allies no longer had any intrest in negotations, the poor conditions of the people they had met in their invasion and the reeducation camps that had been liberated had convinced the allies the need to bring the Korean leadership to stand trial at the Hague.

With the war entering into its sixth month and deadlocked in another stalemate with the communists the allies began the controversial shock and awe campaign against military strongholds. Many concerned westerners feared the death it would bring on the civilian population and protested the allies use of shock and awe. However it proved effective, the allies began their first advancement in months quickly closing in on Pyongyang.

The battered but not beaten North Korean army was able to reform and resist further incursions locking the war in yet another stalemate. Kim Jung-Il started to plead with China to send help as they had in the previous conflict. China resisted by saying it had no volunteers to send this time because no one would volunteer.

A combined US, ROK, and British force landed in Hawjil-li taking the city and marching east to meet up with a German and American detachment moving west from the recently occupied city of Yangdok. Their target was to meet up in P'yungsung just north of the North Korean capital. The hope with the capital now cut off from the rest of the country, Jung-Il and his ilk couldnt escape to the north, and it was hoped the North Korean Army would start surrendoring in droves.

Though being cut off did have some effect on the military, and large numbers did indeed surrendor it was not the number expected by the allies. The push to Pyongyang would be one of the bloodiest of either of the Korean conflicts.

The final Air Campaign again softened the defender's ability instead of their hearts and will to fight. Starving, outnumbered and ill equipped the defenders of Pyongyang were outmatched by the modern marvels of the west in spite of their courage nine months after the Second Korean War began, the allies occupied Pyongyang. Kim Jung-Il had committed suicide to avoid capture, his lieutenants signed the peace treaty ending a war that started in 1950. Peace could finally come to the Korean Peninsula as it was united for the first time in half a century.

The post war years have seen a great improvement in northern Korea, international aid flooded the country, helping to rebuild its infrastructure, and economy. Catholic missionaries poured into the country were they found a ripe population, eager to accept their teachings.

However many in the north feel raped by the allies, as many soldiers from the various allied countries had left a wake of fatherless babies, and unwed mothers. The allies also took alot of North Korean women as their brides.

The united Republic of Korea still experiences many problems, the Communist Party remains active, and strong, but as it grows weaker in the north it grows stronger in the south. Many attribute this to communists moving from north to south, but it is also known the number of registered communists is on the decline. In spite of numerous initiatives, northern Korea remains politically, and ecnomically behind the south.

I'd suggest reading Larry Bond's book Red Phoenix for ideas about a modern Korean War. He has the allies on the defensive for most of the time, because they have to deal with a total surprise attack, and a lack of reinforcments, but then basically route the NKs through a surprise attack into their rear using not an amphibious landing though they do fake one to deceive the NKs, but a drive out of the mountains in the eastern portion of the peninsula.

Xen said:

However many in the north feel raped by the allies, as many soldiers from the various allied countries had left a wake of fatherless babies, and unwed mothers. The allies also took alot of North Korean women as their brides.

The united Republic of Korea still experiences many problems, the Communist Party remains active, and strong, but as it grows weaker in the north it grows stronger in the south. Many attribute this to communists moving from north to south, but it is also known the number of registered communists is on the decline. In spite of numerous initiatives, northern Korea remains politically, and ecnomically behind the south.

Click to expand...

Except for this, the story/timeline/whatever is pretty good. 1) I don't understand the part about taking North Korean women as brides. That may have happened in the 1600s but it doesn't happen anymore, except in VERY limited numbers. 2) I doubt the Communist Party would remain active, let alone legal. After WW2, the Nazi Party was banned in Germany. I think we'll see the same thing with the Communist Party in North Korea.

Other than that, a pretty good job. Red Phoenix is a good book to read about a 2nd Korean War.

You misunderstood, by taking brides, the girls were willing. Kind of like how after WWI alot of French women became brides of American soldiers. Same with WWII and places where there are military bases.

I've read Red Phoenix and a good part of North Korea's success in that book is down to their being re-equipped by the Soviet Union and the PRC and they're also facing only US, ROK and IIRC UK troops. Up against a multi national cohillition and with no support from Russia or China a Korean war would be Desert Storm East. The NK's would be a more formidable enemy than Saddam's ill trained and ill equipped rabble but they'd still lose sooner rather than later.

I'm a bit surprised to see Germany and Japan there. IIRC in 1994 the German constitution forbade Gremany troops from serving outside of NATO countries and they had to pass a law in the Bundestag so they could send peacekeepers to the Balkans. As for Japan, considering what they did between 1910 and 1945 when they ruled the country I'd seriously doubt anyone in either country would consider sending the Japanese Ground Self Defence Force to the penisular. There was a fairly big bruharhar in the Diet about JMSDF ships supporting ops in Afghanistan.

A Japanese problem--and Battleships

Bringing in Japanese trops woould probably cause major problems in both Koreas. As far as I know, there's still resentment against Japan's administration of Korea. The North firms up its resistance, with very few willing to surrender to Japanese troops.
This war is tailor-made for a battleship or two to come out and join the war-preferably two or three, so there's always one when you need it.

deadend

An attack from the east is not very useful, too much no-go terrain and not much east-west LOCs.
Also, not likely that euro countries would get involved, except GB; especially because at that time they were heavily involved in dismantling Yugo and preventing Serb self determination.
9 months is too long. 4 months at the most w/o Chinese intervention, wich, however, is likely in some form. (Airborne Army designated to defend PyongYang.) As China has for centuries considered Korea to be within their sphere of influence, it would be akin to a euro power invading Mexico, the US would not idly watch from the sidelines.
DPRKs best oppurtunity would be during winter (12/25). take advantage of the frozen Imjin, concentrate and cross near Munsan (where they are closest), protect with massive amounts of ADA; get the armored and mech brigades across and head for seoul. north and east of Seoul, dig, dig, dig, in and start negotiating. time is not on their side, so they would have to do something very nasty to get the ROK to enter into negotiations, may or may not work, but nothing else will.
I've often wondered if the best defense is to let them come, the attack would break down as soon as they saw food...everywhere!

The Korean War part II is allways an interesting topic! Your story, Xen, is rather good, however there are a few minor, eh, mistakes or misconseptions.

First, as noted elswhere, the South Koreans would rather die than having Japanese troops on their soil. And the Japanese Diet would, as angain noted earlier, not send the Japanese Defence Force to Korea (in my opinion at least). They could however get invoved indirectly via a few naval clashes or some such!

Second, the North Korean Army has a very Soviet type of organisation. It's a do or die type of army. Massive frontline armoured formations that has no deept. If they don't overun their enemy at the start they have spent their one bolt. And besides that the ROKA is a formidable and very well dug-in opponent wich is deployed and trained to blunt an armoured assault.

A massive North Korean attack on South Korea would probably end in a Dessert Storm east (nice frase btw) - a total slaughter and lots and lots of burnt out T-tanks and APCs.

Regards!

- Mr.Bluenote.

Honeste vivere, alterum non ladere, suum cuique tribuere!

Very good TL that is surprisingly not touched upon more. I think this would have immediate impact upon the USA, especially with the high casualties. Coming relatively soon after the Gulf War, it will be quite a surprise once casualty rates in the thousands pour into American media outlets.

Will this damage America's resolve to be involved in future conflicts as Kosovo and Iraq? Such a bloody war will change American foreign policy for decades. Maybe the terrorists from OTL, like Osama Bin Laden, are even more emboldened to try terrorist attacks on the mainland, or on American bases in the Middle East and Europe not already depleted by the war effort.


Clinton goes down as a great wartime President, being re-elected in 1996 with a much larger margin than IOTL. Maybe the 1994 Congressional elections go more for the Democrats, due to one being in office during a war and the right-wing attacks being decreased during wartime.

Slight off topic-- I beleve that the US should publicly Push for a Peace Treaty, as a way to solve the Present problem with NK.

There's an interesting backgrounder to this at http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5027.htm which outlines the U.S. defensive strategy both pre- and post-1994.

I think there are a number of unique characteristics to this potential conflict.

Time frames will be incredibly short. The whole area is on a hair trigger and the North Koreans have to win the thing (if they can) before the U.S. can bring it's might to bear. I don't think there would be time for anybody but the U.S. and possibly the U.K. to get involved. Nobody else has the means to make the party in time. There is absolutely no way that Japanese troops make an appearance in Korea.

Seoul is ridiculously close to the border and it's the big prize. The North Koreans don't necessarily have to seize the peninsula. If they can invest and hold Seoul they've got a huge bargaining chip. They'll hold the fate of about 10-12 million people (less the ones they've already killed) in their hands.

The mentality of the North Koreans will be a big factor. If they go they have no choice but to win. At all costs. That means throwing everything they have at the ROK and it's defenders from the word go. And I think that means chemical and whatever nuke capacity the NK's hold would almost inevitably be used.

That would lead the U.S. to use nukes in the North. The use of tactical nukes in the South would depend on how deeply the NK's have penetrated and whether or not they are intermingled with defenders or civilian populations. The use of SK civilians as hostages in some manner is likely part of NK tactical doctrines. Drive 'em like cattle in front of you, hide within them when things get tough.

In '94 the NK's didn't have a nuclear bomb (we think). But would they have a plan to use some sort of primitive dirty bomb, either against the defenders or as a threat to Seoul to deter a counter attack? They'd likely be prepared to burn the city rather than leave it. If they lose here, they're done. The U.S. could then kill with impunity right up to the Chinese border.

Having to re-take Seoul would redefine urban warfare for our generation. The civilian casualties would be boggling. Dislodging fanatical NK's from the city would be worse than a nightmare.

American air superiority would be a given. What solutions do the NK's have to this problem? A straight up "use it before you lose it" approach? Or have they tunnelled their way to everywhere they need to go?

All-in-all this would be an unimaginably brutal contest. Millions of dead civilians. A fanatical, utterly single minded opponent who literally has had decades to dig-in, create staging areas and plan the thing out. Americans will be faced with casualty figures they haven't seen since WW2.

So. A big time thrust at Seoul by the NK's. If the defenders hold the city they can turn it around and grind the North back into the ground. That keeps it relatively short. If the NK's take Seoul, then it becomes protracted. No way the U.S. bails out. The stakes are too high. In the end the U.S. wins, it'll just come down to the price that Americans and South Koreans have to pay.

China stays out of it for the most part. They get to watch the U.S. get blooded big time and maybe occupy or annex some rump of North Korea to keep the U.S. off China's borders. That part of the endgame would be fascinating and starts a whole new chain of events.

Do the Chinese now see a chance to have a run at Taiwan . . . ?

Is Seoul abandoned as the capital in favour of some more easily defensible city . . . ?

How does the rest of the world react to watching – because that's all they're really able to do – such a brutal contest . . . ?

Are the NK's properly villified as evil and aggressive or do the Americans have to put up with mindless flack for fighting to the last Korean . . . ?

How do you re-unify Korea, utterly devasted by war and with all or most of the population of the North dysfunctionally xenophobic through lifetimes of indoctrination? Is it still a viable nation state . . . ?

And where does it lead the U.S. after they sit back and take stock . . . ?

Yow.

the present problem with NK isn't lack of a peace treaty, it's that they are led by an egomaniac who is running the country into the ground and whenever he wants handouts from the west, he trots out his nuclear weapons ambitions.
I really doubt that the US would nukes first... whether we won the war or not, we'd be condemned by one and all for decades.
Grabbing a chunk of NK (say, the southern half up to mountains) would be a good idea... don't grab the whole country, since that would just drag China into the war, but take the southern part and you get most of NK's industry and population. We could then either offer to trade it back for a peace treaty or keep it and let what's left of NK slowly fade into poverty and decay. That's what the UN should have done in the first war....

The NKs would find taking Seoul a very difficult proposition. It is a city of millions, and the ROK army can be counted on to hold it to the last man. You'll have millions of reservists being called to arms within just this one city. Sure reservists aren't of the best quality, but when there are millions of them fighting in this urban environment, there is no way the NKs will be able to take it.

I agree with Mr. Bluenote's assessment of the NK army. Once they see things have turned against them, or are surrounded, they will surrender en masse. They same thing happened in 1950 with the landings at Inchon.

The logic behind an attack on the east depends largely on the situation at hand. In RP, the army in the east held at the DMZ fairly easily thanks to the good defensible terrain. The NKs recognized this and placed their main effort in the west. Allied command decided to go for something akin to Inchon, except from the other direction. Therefore, they were advancing out of friendly territory in the east into occupied territory in the west, after deception operations were carried out against Inchon to make the NKs think they were going there again. If the situation is right, it makes perfect sense.

Having lived in Seoul from 1994 to 1996, I agree with those who point out Japanese soldiers would NOT be welcome in Korea (North or South). While I lived there, most of the protests in Seoul were directed at the Japanese.

Another point on the original post, I would think that relatively few/weak anti-war protests would occur. Would they be protesting against North Korea for starting the war? Or protesting against the ROK, US, etc for defending a free and sovereign state?

Also, almost every Korean I met dreams of the day of reunification. There is even a cabinet level position for reunification in the South Korean government. If North Korea invades, South Korea will not stop at the 38th Parallel or any other barrier south of the Yalu River. And by 1994, China had significant and increasing economic ties with both the US and South Korea. They might send some token support to North Korea, but I doubt they would want to have North Korea destroy a major investor and replace it with an economic basketcase.

While such a war would seriously damage the South Korean economy, it would mean the end of North Korea.

"With the war entering into its sixth month and deadlocked in another stalemate with the communists the allies began the controversial shock and awe campaign against military strongholds. Many concerned westerners feared the death it would bring on the civilian population and protested the allies use of shock and awe. However it proved effective, the allies began their first advancement in months quickly closing in on Pyongyang."

Sorry to nag, but "shock and awe" wasn't invented yet. The whole concept was created in the 1996 book "Shock and Awe: Achieving Rapid Dominance" by Harlan K. Ullman and James P. Wade. Oddly enough, the text has been described as "rambling, repetitious, and at times incoherent."