I'm inspired by the weather recently in Boston and the rest of Massachusetts (cold enough to freeze the outside of a rice crispy treat in less than 30 seconds). How could humanity handle a new Ice Age? And none of this "civilization would completely collapse and we'd barely survive" junk. Its my opinion that the more developed regions could handle the transition, though the poorer countries might not make it.
Ice Age
- Thread starter DominusNovus
- Start date
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
My Opinion
Civilization would completely collapse and we'd barely survive.
If an ice age came, unless it was a very slow process, would cause the collapse of civilization and billions of deaths. Malthus believed that the population of the earth was increasing faster than our ability to feed it, which would have been true without technology. A sudden loss of agricultural productivity will quickly cause the end of civilization - for instance, famine in the Third World would mean defaults on debts, causing banks to collapse in the 1st World, etc. Meanwhile mass migrations would be occurring, spreading disease everywhere.
Civilization would completely collapse and we'd barely survive.
If an ice age came, unless it was a very slow process, would cause the collapse of civilization and billions of deaths. Malthus believed that the population of the earth was increasing faster than our ability to feed it, which would have been true without technology. A sudden loss of agricultural productivity will quickly cause the end of civilization - for instance, famine in the Third World would mean defaults on debts, causing banks to collapse in the 1st World, etc. Meanwhile mass migrations would be occurring, spreading disease everywhere.
NapoleonXIV
Banned
Its like any climactic change (short of Snowball Earth) there will be winners and there will be losers.
One indication is that the losers will be the more developed countries. In the most likely scenario for a new and quick 'little' Ice Age (Gulf Stream shutdown) the cold hits Europe hardest of all. The rest of the world doesn't change much.
I agree it won't end civilization but it may not be pleasant if it happens terribly quickly. To quote Seven of Nine "We will adapt." I foresee an increase in Arctic based fisheries industry and possibly an adaptation of 19thc American open range techniques to raising Beefalo on the Growing Northern Tundra
One indication is that the losers will be the more developed countries. In the most likely scenario for a new and quick 'little' Ice Age (Gulf Stream shutdown) the cold hits Europe hardest of all. The rest of the world doesn't change much.
I agree it won't end civilization but it may not be pleasant if it happens terribly quickly. To quote Seven of Nine "We will adapt." I foresee an increase in Arctic based fisheries industry and possibly an adaptation of 19thc American open range techniques to raising Beefalo on the Growing Northern Tundra
And we shall change our enviromental ideas... think about "More CO2!" or "More soot" policy, and shutting down factories, that don' t pollute enviroment enough 
How would world be affected?
1. Whole world is affected in same way. Agriculture drops in what is today medium climate and moves south to what is today hot climate which is what moderate climate is today. Basically agriculture moves south
2. Only north (moderate climate) is afected. New sources are found. Greenhouses are build (Iceland grows lot of tropical fruits this way). This needs lot of energy hence new sources are needed. NPPs mostly.
1. Whole world is affected in same way. Agriculture drops in what is today medium climate and moves south to what is today hot climate which is what moderate climate is today. Basically agriculture moves south
2. Only north (moderate climate) is afected. New sources are found. Greenhouses are build (Iceland grows lot of tropical fruits this way). This needs lot of energy hence new sources are needed. NPPs mostly.
although it would be a slow process, N. Africa would come out well... IIRC, during the Ice ages, the Sahara was actually a well-watered savannah...
Also don't forget that water levels drop, so while you are losing land to the ice, you are also gaining land as the sea recedes. I have no way of knowing exactly how much land we are talking about, but visual representations indicate that there are fairly significant gains in Asia, probably in Florida and the Gulf Coasts.
Consider this - Cuba would be bigger.
Consider this - Cuba would be bigger.
Based on the last glacial maximum, the American Southwest would also do well as the rainfall increased. Canada would be out of luck, except for a few places in the west. Europe would also be hurt as the jet stream and Gulf Stream push south (I think there's some argument as to how much the Gulf Stream would be reduced). However, the ice wouldn't cover Europe as much as it did North America. The tropical jungles would probably be reduced to refuges (not counting human impacts). Overall, the amount of usable land (at least by humans) would decrease.
If it happened quickly, my guess is Canada and the Scandanavian countries would disappear as countries. The US population would be pushed south of the tundra. Great Britain would become a peninsula of France. I'm not sure about Ireland.
If only we could get the mammoths, mastodons, etc. back.
If it happened quickly, my guess is Canada and the Scandanavian countries would disappear as countries. The US population would be pushed south of the tundra. Great Britain would become a peninsula of France. I'm not sure about Ireland.
If only we could get the mammoths, mastodons, etc. back.
Here's a TL, based on the presumption (generally shown in the geological record) that ice ages can begin very quickly, although it might take 1000 years or more for continental ice sheets to spread to their maximum extents.
2004 - NASA orbiting solar observatory begins to observe a never before observed increase in sunspot activity, a trend which increases over the next few years.
2008 - following two years of increasing sunspot activity and decreasing solar radiation, coupled with a sharp decrease in global temperatures and complete cessation of ice cap melting, the "Foundation for Sound Environmental Policy" (a conservative, pro-enegy industry think tank) publishes a report declaring that a new major ice age is beginning. Among its most controversial recommendations is (1) a call for the removal of all controls on the emission of greenhouse gases, which the report argues would allow the atmosphere to retain more solar radiation and possibly forestall, or at least reduce, the worst effects of the coming Ice Age, and (2) a call for a deliberate 50% increase in the burning of fossil fuels over the next 10 years. The stock value of energy corporations rise, and oil/gas exploration activities reach their highest level since the early 1980's. In his last act as President, George Bush signs an executive order declaring a national emergency and suspending all environmental restrictions on the extraction, processing, and emission controls for hydrocarbon fuels. The Sierra Club, Nature Conservancy, and European Union assail this act, calling it a "short sighted non-solution to a problem which may not even exist that was implemented only to favor Big Oil." Other than the US, the only other developed nations to adopt similar heat retention measures are Russia and Norway.
2009 - Newly elected President Howard Dean issues a new executive order temporally suspending Bush's earlier EO until he can hold a global "Environmental Crisis Conference" to discuss the various scientific intrepretations and come up with a recommendation for global action. Former Vice President Albert Gore is named to head the conference, which is dominated by representatives from environmental agencies/groups, anti-business activists, ant-globalists and others. Not surprisingly, the final report of this conference, entitled "Stay the Course and Protect the Planet" concludes that the fears of a new ice age have been exaggerated and that current environmental controls on greenhouse gasses should remain in place.
2010 - This winter is even colder than the last in the northern hempshere. Snow stays on the ground all year in much of arctic and sub-arctic Canada, northern Scandinavia, Siberia, and in lower elevations of mountain ranges like the Rockies, Alps, and Himalayas. Sunspot activity contiues at a high rate.
2011 - the United States Geological Survey completes a report documenting a 20 meter increase in thickness in the major montaine glaciers in Alaska from extremely heavy winter snows and, more disturbingly, evidence that they have begun to expand outward under the weight of the additional non-melting snow cap. This winter is as cold as the last, and even though summer temperatures in upper subarctic and arctic latitudes actually rise slightly, the permanent continental snow pack accumulating in far northern latitudes has developed an average thickness of 50 cm.
2012-14 - the situation appears to stablize in the northen hemisphere - the existing glaciers expand only minimally while the continental snowpack in northern Canada adds only a few centimeters due to a dry snap and less snowfall. Disconcerting discoveries are made in the Andes and Antarctica, however, regarding the growth of glaciers in the southern hemisphere. On the recommendation of his science advisors, President Dean adopts a modification of Bush's earlier EO, causing a major split within the Democratic Party and with the EU.
2015-2020 The first critical phase of climatic degradation begins. Following a few years of moderate precipitation in the far north, the period 2015-18 sees extremely high snowfall, dumping as much as 15 meters at the edges of the continental snowpack and 30 near the center over the frozen surface of Hudson Bay. In 2019, Canadian, Swedish, and US geological survey teams study the pack and note that it has largely turned to ice beneath the immediate surface and is being compressed into near fluid conditions. It is formally classified as a continental glacier. In 2020, snowfall reaches record levels and much of the tiaga forest covering upper Canada, Lapland, and northern Siberia disappears permanently under over 40 meters of ice and snow. At its southern margins, the continental glacier is now about 20 meters thick and has begun to flow outward, pushing permafrost soil away from bedrock and forming a gravelly, dirty, and cobbly mess at the leading edge.
2021 - A report published by the Royal Academy of Science formally determines that the original findings by the Foundation for Sound Environmental Policy were entirely correct and that had that had their recommendations been implemented earlier the ice age would probably have been forestalled. However, it was concluded that the glaciation process had now reached a point of no return, and that an increase in global temperatures now would probably only increase humidity and snowfall amounts in the north, actually accelerating the growth and size of the continental ice sheets.
2022-2070 - There is no common global response to the impending disaster in spite of numerous meetings held for this purpose. It soon becomes apparent that many tropical-latitude nations, particularly those of the 3rd world, secretly and not-so-secretly see in the the ice age a process which will reduce the power and influence of northern nations, especially the USA, Europe, and Russia. Although from the beginning of the emergency, individual northern nations have been relocating their sparse and largely nomadic northern populations, in 2055, the southern march of the glaciers finally reach the northern margins of the Canadian agricultural heartland. In 2070, the English Channel closes at Calais as the sea level lowers and shallower portions of the North Sea freeze permantly to their full depth, allowing for the beginnings of continental glaciation in northren Europe.
2070-90 - The era of panic reaction. The glaciers continue to spread in Canada, Alaska, Siberia, and the Scandinavia/North Sea area. Faced with the now certain destruction of major cities and food producing areas, the USA, Canada, and EU adopt a series of divergent, and ultimately ineffective measures. A series of huge 200 meter high earth and concete barriers, containing nuclear-powered generators and heat-distributing distribution lines are built along the former North Sea Coasts of the Netherlands and Germany in hopes that these gigantic structures will melt and divert the glacial flows as they approach the Amsterdam-Hamburg metroplex. Unfortuntely, although the nuclear plants do melt the glaciers as they approach the barriers, the vast quantities of melting ice saturates the surrounding soil and substrata, undermining the barrier structures and heat radiating lines. This leads in 2081 to the catastophic nuclear event of Norh German Barrier Plant #4. Fortunately, most of the inhabitants of nearby Hamburg had already evacuated their homes so the loss of life was surprisingly light. In North America, the USA annexes southern and coastal Canada - largely with the agreement of the Canadian government - and assumes full responsibility for the North American Glacial Defense Program. In typical American fashion, the US adopts the direct approach of dropping nuclear bombs in the core areas of the continental glaciers in hope that the intense heat will melt enough of their mass to halt their outward spread. This effort also fails, as the vast quantities of melted/vaporized snow and ice melted merely returns to the earth overhe next year in massive, slightly radioactive, snowfalls.
2090-2120 - the Ice Wars. As larger areas of the Canadian Prairie and Alaska are scraped away and covered by the ice sheets, Iceland, southern Scandinavia,Scotland, the Baltic republics and the North Sea Coast basically disappear as occupied areas, and Russia experiences the first of several horrible famines, it becomes clear that the civilizations of Europe and North America are on their last legs. The USA, which, based on prior glacial episodes, believes it can survive large in its present location by resettling displaced Canadian and northern US populations, although contingency plans are made for the conquest and occupation of Mexico, Argentina, and South Africa. In Europe, however, it is estimated that by 2200 all of Great Britain, the low countries, northern Russia, and much of Germany and France will essentially cease to exist, and although Australia is willing to accept up to 50 million people from the British Isles, the underdeveloped nations of the south are increasingly unwilling to make room for the anticipated 400 million refugees from the rest of Europe. Among both Europeans and Americans, there is also considerable resistence to moving whole populations south without ensuring they have the the same liberal democratic constitutional protections they enjoyed in their former homes. Since most of the third world is still politically and economically undeveloped, a condition what was made even worse when virtually all economic assistance from the USA, Canada, and EU ceased during the Era of Panic Reaction, the EU and USA both adopt what could best be described as a neo-National Socialist approach to the settlement of the South, a return to the barbarism of the mid-20th century. Although viewed by Europeans and Americans as necessary wars of conquest, local people could be excused for considering them only the last round of barbarian invasions from the north. It is estimated that as many as 1 billion people died in the massive wars begun in 2100 to carve out "New Canadas, New Germanies, and New New Englands" in the now increasingly moist and temperate lands of North Africa, North Mexico, and Central Asia.
2004 - NASA orbiting solar observatory begins to observe a never before observed increase in sunspot activity, a trend which increases over the next few years.
2008 - following two years of increasing sunspot activity and decreasing solar radiation, coupled with a sharp decrease in global temperatures and complete cessation of ice cap melting, the "Foundation for Sound Environmental Policy" (a conservative, pro-enegy industry think tank) publishes a report declaring that a new major ice age is beginning. Among its most controversial recommendations is (1) a call for the removal of all controls on the emission of greenhouse gases, which the report argues would allow the atmosphere to retain more solar radiation and possibly forestall, or at least reduce, the worst effects of the coming Ice Age, and (2) a call for a deliberate 50% increase in the burning of fossil fuels over the next 10 years. The stock value of energy corporations rise, and oil/gas exploration activities reach their highest level since the early 1980's. In his last act as President, George Bush signs an executive order declaring a national emergency and suspending all environmental restrictions on the extraction, processing, and emission controls for hydrocarbon fuels. The Sierra Club, Nature Conservancy, and European Union assail this act, calling it a "short sighted non-solution to a problem which may not even exist that was implemented only to favor Big Oil." Other than the US, the only other developed nations to adopt similar heat retention measures are Russia and Norway.
2009 - Newly elected President Howard Dean issues a new executive order temporally suspending Bush's earlier EO until he can hold a global "Environmental Crisis Conference" to discuss the various scientific intrepretations and come up with a recommendation for global action. Former Vice President Albert Gore is named to head the conference, which is dominated by representatives from environmental agencies/groups, anti-business activists, ant-globalists and others. Not surprisingly, the final report of this conference, entitled "Stay the Course and Protect the Planet" concludes that the fears of a new ice age have been exaggerated and that current environmental controls on greenhouse gasses should remain in place.
2010 - This winter is even colder than the last in the northern hempshere. Snow stays on the ground all year in much of arctic and sub-arctic Canada, northern Scandinavia, Siberia, and in lower elevations of mountain ranges like the Rockies, Alps, and Himalayas. Sunspot activity contiues at a high rate.
2011 - the United States Geological Survey completes a report documenting a 20 meter increase in thickness in the major montaine glaciers in Alaska from extremely heavy winter snows and, more disturbingly, evidence that they have begun to expand outward under the weight of the additional non-melting snow cap. This winter is as cold as the last, and even though summer temperatures in upper subarctic and arctic latitudes actually rise slightly, the permanent continental snow pack accumulating in far northern latitudes has developed an average thickness of 50 cm.
2012-14 - the situation appears to stablize in the northen hemisphere - the existing glaciers expand only minimally while the continental snowpack in northern Canada adds only a few centimeters due to a dry snap and less snowfall. Disconcerting discoveries are made in the Andes and Antarctica, however, regarding the growth of glaciers in the southern hemisphere. On the recommendation of his science advisors, President Dean adopts a modification of Bush's earlier EO, causing a major split within the Democratic Party and with the EU.
2015-2020 The first critical phase of climatic degradation begins. Following a few years of moderate precipitation in the far north, the period 2015-18 sees extremely high snowfall, dumping as much as 15 meters at the edges of the continental snowpack and 30 near the center over the frozen surface of Hudson Bay. In 2019, Canadian, Swedish, and US geological survey teams study the pack and note that it has largely turned to ice beneath the immediate surface and is being compressed into near fluid conditions. It is formally classified as a continental glacier. In 2020, snowfall reaches record levels and much of the tiaga forest covering upper Canada, Lapland, and northern Siberia disappears permanently under over 40 meters of ice and snow. At its southern margins, the continental glacier is now about 20 meters thick and has begun to flow outward, pushing permafrost soil away from bedrock and forming a gravelly, dirty, and cobbly mess at the leading edge.
2021 - A report published by the Royal Academy of Science formally determines that the original findings by the Foundation for Sound Environmental Policy were entirely correct and that had that had their recommendations been implemented earlier the ice age would probably have been forestalled. However, it was concluded that the glaciation process had now reached a point of no return, and that an increase in global temperatures now would probably only increase humidity and snowfall amounts in the north, actually accelerating the growth and size of the continental ice sheets.
2022-2070 - There is no common global response to the impending disaster in spite of numerous meetings held for this purpose. It soon becomes apparent that many tropical-latitude nations, particularly those of the 3rd world, secretly and not-so-secretly see in the the ice age a process which will reduce the power and influence of northern nations, especially the USA, Europe, and Russia. Although from the beginning of the emergency, individual northern nations have been relocating their sparse and largely nomadic northern populations, in 2055, the southern march of the glaciers finally reach the northern margins of the Canadian agricultural heartland. In 2070, the English Channel closes at Calais as the sea level lowers and shallower portions of the North Sea freeze permantly to their full depth, allowing for the beginnings of continental glaciation in northren Europe.
2070-90 - The era of panic reaction. The glaciers continue to spread in Canada, Alaska, Siberia, and the Scandinavia/North Sea area. Faced with the now certain destruction of major cities and food producing areas, the USA, Canada, and EU adopt a series of divergent, and ultimately ineffective measures. A series of huge 200 meter high earth and concete barriers, containing nuclear-powered generators and heat-distributing distribution lines are built along the former North Sea Coasts of the Netherlands and Germany in hopes that these gigantic structures will melt and divert the glacial flows as they approach the Amsterdam-Hamburg metroplex. Unfortuntely, although the nuclear plants do melt the glaciers as they approach the barriers, the vast quantities of melting ice saturates the surrounding soil and substrata, undermining the barrier structures and heat radiating lines. This leads in 2081 to the catastophic nuclear event of Norh German Barrier Plant #4. Fortunately, most of the inhabitants of nearby Hamburg had already evacuated their homes so the loss of life was surprisingly light. In North America, the USA annexes southern and coastal Canada - largely with the agreement of the Canadian government - and assumes full responsibility for the North American Glacial Defense Program. In typical American fashion, the US adopts the direct approach of dropping nuclear bombs in the core areas of the continental glaciers in hope that the intense heat will melt enough of their mass to halt their outward spread. This effort also fails, as the vast quantities of melted/vaporized snow and ice melted merely returns to the earth overhe next year in massive, slightly radioactive, snowfalls.
2090-2120 - the Ice Wars. As larger areas of the Canadian Prairie and Alaska are scraped away and covered by the ice sheets, Iceland, southern Scandinavia,Scotland, the Baltic republics and the North Sea Coast basically disappear as occupied areas, and Russia experiences the first of several horrible famines, it becomes clear that the civilizations of Europe and North America are on their last legs. The USA, which, based on prior glacial episodes, believes it can survive large in its present location by resettling displaced Canadian and northern US populations, although contingency plans are made for the conquest and occupation of Mexico, Argentina, and South Africa. In Europe, however, it is estimated that by 2200 all of Great Britain, the low countries, northern Russia, and much of Germany and France will essentially cease to exist, and although Australia is willing to accept up to 50 million people from the British Isles, the underdeveloped nations of the south are increasingly unwilling to make room for the anticipated 400 million refugees from the rest of Europe. Among both Europeans and Americans, there is also considerable resistence to moving whole populations south without ensuring they have the the same liberal democratic constitutional protections they enjoyed in their former homes. Since most of the third world is still politically and economically undeveloped, a condition what was made even worse when virtually all economic assistance from the USA, Canada, and EU ceased during the Era of Panic Reaction, the EU and USA both adopt what could best be described as a neo-National Socialist approach to the settlement of the South, a return to the barbarism of the mid-20th century. Although viewed by Europeans and Americans as necessary wars of conquest, local people could be excused for considering them only the last round of barbarian invasions from the north. It is estimated that as many as 1 billion people died in the massive wars begun in 2100 to carve out "New Canadas, New Germanies, and New New Englands" in the now increasingly moist and temperate lands of North Africa, North Mexico, and Central Asia.
And what about "painting ice dark" ? If we could do so, albedo (degree of reflecting light) would decrease, and temperature will raise.
Probaly it's cheaper than using nuclear weapon...
Probaly it's cheaper than using nuclear weapon...
Actually, a warmer winter and cooler summer will result in more snow accumulation. The (relatively) warmer winter air can hold more moisture leading to more snow. The cooler summer isn't able to melt as much.
One interesting thing will be to watch what happens as the Arctic Ocean ice cap shrinks. There will be a larger source of moisture for the far north. That could also lead to increased snowfall.
Also, although I'm not up-to-date on the subject, most of the experts I remember projected longer than 100 years for glaciation to get going. However, once it does, I'm sure the projected wars will start.
One interesting thing will be to watch what happens as the Arctic Ocean ice cap shrinks. There will be a larger source of moisture for the far north. That could also lead to increased snowfall.
Also, although I'm not up-to-date on the subject, most of the experts I remember projected longer than 100 years for glaciation to get going. However, once it does, I'm sure the projected wars will start.
Volcano Winters
If Long Valley Caldera went (and it's rumbling), then there would not be a crop in Europe next summer.
To fight cold weather the most efficient thing to do is dump lots of methane into the air. Russia and the Persian gulf countries would frantically drill every gas deposit they could find, and they can find a lot. Also, there are lots of hydrate deposits on the continental shelves. We have about 40,000 nukes and could build another 4,000 a year. Set them off on the shelves over hydrate deposits and start turbidity currents that would uncover the hydrate deposits and dump lots of methane in the air, and quickly.
You want sweet gas deposits. No H2S deposits because they oxidize to SO2 very quickly and that turns the air white and reflects sunlight. Ironically it's the very polluting Chinese coal burning power plants that are slightly delaying the CO2 winters. But the SO2 lasts only a few years before it's washed out of air and the CO2 from the coal burning power plants lasts hundreds of years before it is absorbed by plants.
If Long Valley Caldera went (and it's rumbling), then there would not be a crop in Europe next summer.
To fight cold weather the most efficient thing to do is dump lots of methane into the air. Russia and the Persian gulf countries would frantically drill every gas deposit they could find, and they can find a lot. Also, there are lots of hydrate deposits on the continental shelves. We have about 40,000 nukes and could build another 4,000 a year. Set them off on the shelves over hydrate deposits and start turbidity currents that would uncover the hydrate deposits and dump lots of methane in the air, and quickly.
You want sweet gas deposits. No H2S deposits because they oxidize to SO2 very quickly and that turns the air white and reflects sunlight. Ironically it's the very polluting Chinese coal burning power plants that are slightly delaying the CO2 winters. But the SO2 lasts only a few years before it's washed out of air and the CO2 from the coal burning power plants lasts hundreds of years before it is absorbed by plants.
Books
'Catastrophe' by Keys is about volcano weather as measured in ice cores from glaciers.
'Exodus to Arthur' by Baillie is about volcano weather as measured by dendrochronology.
The last bad weather we had was in 636 to 640. No crop in 636, bad crops in 637 and 638, and no crop in 640. Every civilisation on Earth went down, IIRC.
'Catastrophe' by Keys is about volcano weather as measured in ice cores from glaciers.
'Exodus to Arthur' by Baillie is about volcano weather as measured by dendrochronology.
The last bad weather we had was in 636 to 640. No crop in 636, bad crops in 637 and 638, and no crop in 640. Every civilisation on Earth went down, IIRC.
NapoleonXIV
Banned
While this is an interesting hypothesis and well supported it is far from being proved. One of the really nice things about the King Arthur story is that you can say almost anything you want within very broad outlines. There are practically no reliable records from that time to contradict you.
I have seen a book that ascribes the decline of the world at that time to a meteor strike and another that assigns it to diseases from space. When I was in high school we were quite confidently told it was wholly the fault of the degenerate Romans but by the time I got to college it was yet another example of the unalterably cyclical nature of history.
I have seen a book that ascribes the decline of the world at that time to a meteor strike and another that assigns it to diseases from space. When I was in high school we were quite confidently told it was wholly the fault of the degenerate Romans but by the time I got to college it was yet another example of the unalterably cyclical nature of history.