What If's of American History

I glanced through it in a store a few months ago. When I saw it in the library last week I picked it up. It was about what I expected. Some were interesting.

McPherson does Gettysburg over again, with the North charging up the hills and the Confederacy defending, assuming that that could have been what happened if the 'lost orders' of Antietam had stayed lost. It's just absurd.
An invading army has to fight once the resident army shows up. The invading army has to forage for food, which means it must send out foraging parties. When the resident army shows up, no foraging parties are sent out because the resident army will destroy them in detail with it's better local intelligence. So Lee had to fight at Gettysburg, but the Northern general did not. He wasn't hurting for food. He still had locals who would haul food to his army in return for Northern money, unlike Lee. He still had locals who would bring him intelligence on the location of Confederate forces, unlike Lee. He still had a functioning railnet to bring in more troops and supplies to keep his army in being, unlike Lee.
He could just wait a day, or two, or three, or four, as the Confederate army got hungrier and hungrier and closer to defeat, and as the superior Northern armies got larger and larger. He could sit there on one side of Lee and entrench, and then slide around a little and entrench some more, and repeat till Lee was inside a siege works. At least he could if Lee had enough food to just sit there, which he didn't.
If Lee was pinned in one place in the North for a week, he might as well just surrender. Having the Northern general attack up the slope at Gettysburg was equivalent to having the Whermacht suddenly launch a naval invasion of the Normandy beachhead. Yes, it would have been a surprise, but no, it would not have been a success.

Lukacs does a slower start to the war, delaying until May of 1942, instead of December of 1941. He forgets that the Singapore base fell to superior air power and incompetent management. Not surprising, since his interest is in Europe. But when the base fell the Hurricanes that would have had at least a chance against the Zeros were still in their packing cases. Six months later they would have been on the airfields and ready to defend. Because of the time zone difference between Pearl Harbor and Singapore the attack would have had to have been in broad daylight in one or the other. That doesn't mean that the British airforce in Singapore couldn't have been destroyed on the ground in a daylight attack like the airforce in the Phillipines, for instance. The British general at Singapore was every bit as incompetent as MacArthur and could have had his airforce destroyed just as MacArthur did, in a 'surprise' attack half a day after the Pearl Harbor strike.
One important political difference is that Australia was constantly pressing Churchill to send more than token air forces to Singapore. Churchill had repelled the Blitz long since, but was refusing to send aircraft to Australia, or the Indian Ocean territories. No one really knows why. If the Australians had had another six months they would have had much more real military power at Singapore. Enough to prevent the Japanese from launching their naval assault forces on Malaya, or bleeding them enough that they would have been unable to prevail. We know now how narrow that victory was, how close they came to defeat. Without taking Singapore the Japanese tankers would have been under even greater attack and attrition from the Allies and would have been knocked out of the war by fuel shortages even faster that it was in OTL.
The other important political difference is that the US had Japan under embargo. Japan could not get the oil turned back on without backing down from their occupation of Indochina and Thailand. This was not going to happen. The Japanese needed to get their forces in range of Singapore. Without a Japanese withdrawel from Indochina and Thailand there wasn't going to be any more oil. If they withdrew they couldn't take Singapore because they didn't have air bases close enough to support their landings. If they didn't withdraw they would have had six months less oil and the war would have been much more difficult to fight. They would have lost long before they did in OTL.

Cowley has one on a war between the UK and the US in 1895. The UK had huge investments in the US. The UK would have wound up paying for both sides of a war with the US. This is unlikely. Not over some worthless jungle in South America. They also had investments in Canada. They would have been confiscated by the US after the US invaded and annexed Canada. It would just have been too expensive to fight a war.
 
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Diamond

Banned
I just bought this today. Overall, the quality seems good; admittedly, I'm biased by the only chapter I've read so far - 'The Cuban Missile Crisis-Second Holocaust', by Robert O'Connell, which is truly excellent IMO. Too many times in the What If? books and their clones, a POD is proposed and examined exhaustively, which is all well and good, but then the authors seem to cop out with an excuse like, '...and here further conjecture becomes futile...'. That seems to me to be the point - to hypothesize how things would've changed as a result of the POD.

So anyway, the O'Connell chapter in American What Ifs? has the best of both worlds - a well-thought out POD and description of events leading up to the 'point of no return', AND well-thought out glimpses of how the following ten years might've turned out, and hints for the years after. It's nice to see someone actually have an opinion...
 
Diamond, wkwillis or anyone:
How does his world compare to my Cuban Missile War and resulting world Castro?
 
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Diamond

Banned
tom said:
Diamond, wkwillis or anyone:
How does his world compare to my Cuban Missile War and resulting world Castro?

Well, his has Nixon winning the Presidency in '64 and basically turning the rest of the world against the US by saying "It wasn't OUR fault" and refusing to disarm - in fact, he rebuilds the nuclear stockpile. This despite the fact that something like 95% of the Soviet and Cuban population is dead, both countries having been nuclear carpet-bombed out of existence. As plague, famine, and fallout devastate India and the far east, the resulting food shortages trigger world-wide panic. A coalition of nations brings a petition to the UN to get the US thrown out, but Nixon beats them to the punch by withdrawing the US from the UN and kicking all the UN apparatus out of New York. At about this time, the full effects of the Cuban devastation become apparent as fallout begins to decimate the Bahamas and Florida.

This seems to be where it diverges from yours - your TL keeps getting worse and worse (which I like :) ), while O'Connell has Nixon losing in '68, and the succeeding President starts to rebuild bridges with the rest of the world. I think both TLs are valid - O'Connell's is just a little more positive - maybe too much so. And I think Nixon makes a little too convenient scapegoat.
 
wkwillis said:
I glanced through it in a store a few months ago. When I saw it in the library last week I picked it up. It was about what I expected. Some were interesting.

Yup, very uneven quality. Still, some interesting TLs, and even the bad ones make good studies of why things _didn't_ happen that way. This especially applies to the "Whale against the Elephant", where the war scenario is utterly implausible, but does illustrate nicely many of the forces leading to Anglo-American _friendship_ at the time.

It's interesting that professional historians, in all of the "What If" books, tend to be more likely to create either utopias or dystopias than I would have suspected. Real utopias and dystopias are pretty rare, really. History tends to favor the middle, and the morally complex.
 
Realistic 1961 nuclear war

The US can't kill 95% of the Russian population in a nuclear attack in 1961 because half the Russian population lived on farms in 1961. America was far more urban and far more susceptible to nuclear attack, so even though we had them outgunned 20 to 1 because of the Eisenhower military buildup, we just didn't have the targets. They did.
We could have killed lots of East Europeans if we had targetted them for some reason. We also had the problem that after we killed half the Russian population the other half would have had all the food and would have been very resistant to nuke winter starvation. It is possible that if we didn't understand what had happened to the weather quickly enough, we might have had more casualties from starvation than the Russians had from direct attack.
And of course the Russian weapons had range for Germany, France, Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, etc.
 
In Castro, I figure a brief "nuclear autumn" (we didn't have quite enough nukes for a full blown climate collapse). It helps that this occurred during North Hemisphere winter anyway. Also, America, in 1962 as now, was the most food rich nation in the world. The Russians had more targets, but a lot fewer bombs. We had a lot of targets ourselves (We targeted everything. In the early days of the anti-war and nuke movement I heard a story about a senator who was touring some missile or bomb installation, and asked what the nuke was targeted to. It was some Godforsaken bridge somewhere. A whole nuke just for that!). Still, there was global famine (including America) after the war, which killed more people than the war did and helped make the world the mess it is...even Australia and Brazil barely held together.
 

Diamond

Banned
wkwillis said:
The US can't kill 95% of the Russian population in a nuclear attack in 1961 because half the Russian population lived on farms in 1961.

Eh, I dunno. He made a pretty good case. A lot of it (the extreme overkill projected in the scenario) had to do with SIOP (Single Integrated Operations Plan). Just a few months earlier, the US gov't had made the first steps to implementing a damage limitation strategy, but at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, SIOP was still in place. If you read the chapter, the author states that toward the end of the conflict, American bombers, having run out of military and urban targets, start bombing locations 'devoid of strategic significance'. Under the circumstances described, I think its entirely plausible for 95% of the Russian population to perish.

That's a matter of public record. Now, a lot of the attacks he has US forces carrying out (ie, nuclear fire-bombing of the Siberian forests to create a massive forest fire) I could not find proof of possible implementation for in the (limited) research I've done. But, 40 years later, will we ever really know all the possible outcomes? O'Connell's may not be the most likely, but I found it very plausible.
 
tom said:
In Castro, I figure a brief "nuclear autumn" (we didn't have quite enough nukes for a full blown climate collapse). It helps that this occurred during North Hemisphere winter anyway. Also, America, in 1962 as now, was the most food rich nation in the world. The Russians had more targets, but a lot fewer bombs. We had a lot of targets ourselves (We targeted everything. In the early days of the anti-war and nuke movement I heard a story about a senator who was touring some missile or bomb installation, and asked what the nuke was targeted to. It was some Godforsaken bridge somewhere. A whole nuke just for that!). Still, there was global famine (including America) after the war, which killed more people than the war did and helped make the world the mess it is...even Australia and Brazil barely held together.

Where can "Castro" be located? It sounds very interesting, indeed. Is it on this website, or another?
 
You can read stories of it (as well as my other stories...shameless plug) at http://tmazanec1.xepher.net and read some of the threads helping to create it on the old forum, especially if you search for "Cuban Missile War". Also, I am submitting it to the Interplannar Confederation Yahoo group.
 
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