What if Hernando Cortez hadn't gone to the New World

Wow, I never knew there was a whole community devoted to alternate history. I just discovered this particular sub-genre of speculative fiction after reading such works like Pastwatch: The Redemption of Christopher Columbus and The Tales of Alvin Maker. Well, I am intrigued, and set out to make an alternate history universe of my own.

So, I delved through history as interpreted by the free encyclopedia of Wikipedia.org to find a piece of history that I had like to change.

I came to Hernando Cortez, and it is said on the site that when he came back from Salamanca, he had a decision to go and fight in the Italian War or try his luck in the New World.

Therefore, I pose the question, "What if Cortez had gone as a soldier in the Italian War, under the Aragonese crown, instead of gone to the New World."

I have tried my best at calculating what would happen by searching a very broad area of history. So far, I've only gone to 1506 and only on the eastern side of the world.

With Hernando Cortez on their side, I assumed there would be a small degree of increased success in the Italian Wars. They captures Naples quicker, have more soldiers, destroy the French more thoroughly, all by a small degree. However, this is cumulative, and by the time all of Naples is captured, the Aragonese war engine is still hungry, and so they go and capture the Italian regions of Marche, Umbria, and lower Toscany. Then they begin a seige on Florence.

France pours all of its nearby soldiers into this immense city, leaving Tuscany devoid of military accept in Florence. Hernando Cortez (wanting to give him at least a little credit) leads a small army that sweeps the countryside of Tuscany and claims the entire region. When he returns to Florence, the Florentines are launching the largest counterattack they can muster. It gives Cortez enough clearance to cut a way into Florence with his small forces. The rest of the Aragonese army manages to repel the Florentian assault and, in the hour of victory, invades into the city itself.

Two weeks later, the French cede Florence, Tuscany, Marche, Umbria, and Naples to Ferdinand and the Aragonese. In the midst of the battle, however, Michelangelo is killed in cannonade. His sculpture David is only a few months unfinished.

So, Michelangelo is dead, and Aragonese forces control more of Italy than they did. The French are even more enraged and relations between France and the kingdoms of Spain are even more hostile. Protestantism breaks out, and the religion is attractive to the lesser Aragonese footsoldiers that hold central Italy.

That's all I've got so far.

Its easy to say that, without Cortez, the battles on Cuba and other New World locations Cortez had a say in, might have failed and gone to the natives. The Aztec Empire is still very much alive, waiting for another conquistador to claim its riches. But because Cortez never landed on that 'lucky day, lucky hour' in the Aztec lands, Moctezuma might be a little harder to control and Tenochtitlan a little more difficult to destroy. Since this is alternate history, it would be cool if the Aztecs continued to survive, that they never were conquered.

The Medici family ruined. Spain stronger than they were, France a little more weaker, but filled with vengeance against Aragon. Operations in the New World aren't successful as they should be.

This could do a whole lot to the world as we know it.

Anyway, I was wondering if there were any other opinions on the subject, and some help as to what would happen in the future.

Thanks,
Darkest90

Welcome aboard.

Lets see. Smallpox hits the Aztec empire, and it collapses, being inherently less stable than the Inca Empire, which also suffered political upheaval due to the disease. A bunch of squabbling states emerge from under Aztec domination, allowing whoever does conquer them (and someone will try, with all that wealth around) to do it piecemeal. Mexico would be conquered by several conquistadors, rather than one.

And, given Cortez's character, Mexico would be much worse off. Compared to many others, Cortez was quite fair and even handed.

Wlecome to the board Darkest. Enjoy

Hi and a welcome from me too

I think it possible that if the Aztecs survive longer then they may undergo an internal upheaval but not collapse

Alternatively they collapse and one of the groups now in contact with the Old World has an advantage over the others and is able to reunite much of the empire under a new regime, using new tech etc

Of course I'm no expert on this period, I just see patterns of force

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf said:

I think it possible that if the Aztecs survive longer then they may undergo an internal upheaval but not collapse

Alternatively they collapse and one of the groups now in contact with the Old World has an advantage over the others and is able to reunite much of the empire under a new regime, using new tech etc

Of course I'm no expert on this period, I just see patterns of force

Grey Wolf

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An interesting point. When the Spanish came, the Aztecs damn near had a civil war on their hands because of the strife they caused the subjugated tribes. If they last a little longer, Tenochtitlan could find itself in a curious position.

Any number of the more powerful states that surrounded the Aztec Empire, such as the Tarascans (A tribe as fierce as the Aztecs themselves; the Aztecs tried on many occasions to conquer them but always failed miserably.), could have swept down and seized control in the Valley of Mexico in the event of the collapse of the Aztec Empire.

In OTL, the Tarascan emperor became a vassal of Spain after hearing about the capitulation of the Aztecs and a nasty smallpox outbreak. If the Tarascans are able to seize control of the former Aztec Empire, they would be in a much better position. A Tarascan Empire could be a good alternative to continued Aztec hegemony. Just an idea.

To me, the native states are doomed, as long as they're sitting on gold mines (litteral). Facing the European disease package, they simply won't have the manpower to resist Spanish incursions. And given how much of America the Spanish were able to conquer searching for place where the might be gold, you can bet they'll be willing to commit a good size force to an area where they know there's gold.

To avoid this, you have to change:

1) The Eurasian disease package. Doing this creates so many butterflies, its not an option (besides being nearly impossible).
2) The wealth of the states. Either there's no gold (ASB territory) or the natives just don't know about it. I don't know how plausible the latter is.
3) The American disease package. All the butterflies will stay in the western hemisphere, so its workable.
4) Have a different attitude among the explorers. Instead of conquering, trade. This would require either a different power, or a significantly different history for Spain (which eliminates Cortez from being born in the first place).

DominusNovus said:

4) Have a different attitude among the explorers. Instead of conquering, trade. This would require either a different power, or a significantly different history for Spain (which eliminates Cortez from being born in the first place).

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A different power could be an interesting alternative. If Cortez fights in Italy (or somewhere else, who knows.), the Spanish might end up somewhere else besides Mexico, like the New Orleans area, or north of Florida, or maybe even the northern Atlantic coasts of South America.

Who would come across the Mesoamericans, though? The English or the French? The English aren't very likely, but the French are a possibility. They would possibily be more interested in trade than conquest. Anybody know what the Portuguese would do when faced with a large Mesoamerican empire?

A much earlier Scottish attempt at colonization could stumble across Mexico.

- tetsu katana

The way to save the native civilizations is if you had smaller nations doing the exploring, like scotland or the small german and italian states. If the exploring nations didn't have enough man-power to conquer of colonize the new world, then they would be much more inclined towards trade.

Yossarian said:

The way to save the native civilizations is if you had smaller nations doing the exploring, like scotland or the small german and italian states. If the exploring nations didn't have enough man-power to conquer of colonize the new world, then they would be much more inclined towards trade.

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Even then, Cortez only had 300 men with him.

Hey, thanks for all of the discussion. The idea about the Tarascans coming down and conquering Tenochtitlan and claiming the seat of the Aztec Empire is appealing. And, since they are such the warriors, maybe when a conquistador does come into contact with the new empire, there would be much less chance for the Empire to get duped and invaded.

Let's say around the 1520s or 30s, the Tarascan upheaval occurs. I wonder if any other explorers would come into contact with the civilization during that time period. I wouldn't want them to get in the way. Let's just say that explorers don't find them until somewhere around the 1540s, after a decade or two of Tarascan rule. The Tarascans would have more time solidifying their new empire.

Besides that, I am more interested in what would happen to Europe if Spain hadn't found all the gold of the Aztecs and spent so much of their military conquering it and keeping it. Any ideas on that?

Thanks,
Darkest90

Yossarian said:

The way to save the native civilizations is if you had smaller nations doing the exploring, like scotland or the small german and italian states. If the exploring nations didn't have enough man-power to conquer of colonize the new world, then they would be much more inclined towards trade.

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What? Somehow explorers from smaller European nations won't bring the same disease package with them? The Amerinds are screwed. Period. If it isn't Cortez from Spain it will someone else from some place else.

The size of the exploring party doesn't mean a thing either. Forget the propaganda, Cortez didn't conquer the Aztecs with 'only' a handful of Spaniards, a clutch of matchlocks, and a cannon or two. He had native help, lots of native help. It's estimated Cortez had close to 100 thousand native 'helpers' along for the siege.

Only the dates and details change if you remove Cortez and Pizzaro, and then not by much. The Amerinds are screwed. Period.


Bill

I don't think it would have changed very much for the Aztecs. If it had not been Cortes, it would have been Narvaez or Pizarro or maybe somebody more ruthless... But any other european power would have been totally out of the question: it was not a matter of Cortes or not, it was a matter of Tordesillas treaty or not. Even more, supposing there is no american gold/silver, the european states would not have been interested. Why sending human and material resources to a place from where you will have nothing in return?

As for Europe, the italian army by the XVI century was made of aragonese and castillians. In fact the kingdom of Naples was annexed to Castille, not to Aragon. Cortes would have served Ferdinand a few years, by 1518 he would have had as king Charles I.

One more thing I do not think the reformation ideas would have been accepted by aragonese nor castillian commoners, there was still that feeling of crusade and of serving the true faith that came from the years of the reconquista.

Ah, you are right about that, Condottiero, I had not looked back into the reconquista. So Protestant Spain is out of the picture. I have to keep on looking at this timeline, and I will talk to you a little bit more later.

What about a wandering priest finding himself in Aztec lands after the Tarascans have taken over. He brings disease, but because he knows how to help, not as many die. If he was from Spain, he could also be a "hidden" Jew, who still knows the koscher ways. Some of the elite pick up Spanis, and Latin. Eventually, traders come, and the Tarascans become very wealthy. They also learn the secret of gunpowder, as the Emperor buys cannons. they have a slightly better time of it, and are still a power for a few centuries yet.

Bill Cameron said:

What? Somehow explorers from smaller European nations won't bring the same disease package with them? The Amerinds are screwed. Period. If it isn't Cortez from Spain it will someone else from some place else.

The size of the exploring party doesn't mean a thing either. Forget the propaganda, Cortez didn't conquer the Aztecs with 'only' a handful of Spaniards, a clutch of matchlocks, and a cannon or two. He had native help, lots of native help. It's estimated Cortez had close to 100 thousand native 'helpers' along for the siege.

Only the dates and details change if you remove Cortez and Pizzaro, and then not by much. The Amerinds are screwed. Period.


Bill

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I would tend to agree with this. Another thing to consider. If Cortez is in Italy, who is leading in Mexico? My guess...Pedro de Alvarado. A man every bit as ruthless, if not more, than Cortez.

robertp6165 said:

I would tend to agree with this. Another thing to consider. If Cortez is in Italy, who is leading in Mexico? (...)

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I think Yossarian meant that smaller nations without the backing of either a powerfull emperial tradition or ditto military might seek another way to exploite the New World. So instead of Spaniards running amok with steel and fire, you'll have merchants running amok with scales, pen and paper. My, and I suspect Yossarian's as well, point is, that the native nations still suffer from disease, but are not colonized - at least not to the same degree - as OTL and thus survives in some form or another.

And considering the sheer audacity displayed by Cortez and what I only can descripe as his incredible luck, the first encounter between the Europeans and the Americans might have turned out slightly different...

Best regards!

- B.

Mr.Bluenote said:

I think Yossarian meant that smaller nations without the backing of either a powerfull emperial tradition or ditto military might seek another way to exploite the New World. So instead of Spaniards running amok with steel and fire, you'll have merchants running amok with scales, pen and paper. My, and I suspect Yossarian's as well, point is, that the native nations still suffer from disease, but are not colonized - at least not to the same degree - as OTL and thus survives in some form or another.

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That might be true. Then it might not. I think that as soon as any European...Spaniard or not...finds out that there are relatively primitive people sitting there surrounded by tons of gold and silver, the freebooters and adventurers (which is really what the Conquistadors were) will be attracted like bottle flies to carrion.

And the POD suggested by Yossarian would have to assume that the Spanish are not there at all. The POD for this thread was that Cortez goes to Italy. Cortez going to Italy would not have prevented Columbus from making landfall in the Americas.

Mr.Bluenote said:

And considering the sheer audacity displayed by Cortez and what I only can descripe as his incredible luck, the first encounter between the Europeans and the Americans might have turned out slightly different...

Best regards!

- B.

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Pedro de Alvarado...or Francisco Pizarro...or any of the other famous Spanish Conquistadors, would likely have achieved the same result. The big thing is to make allies among the enemies of the Aztec, and let those allies do most of the fighting for you.

tetsu-katana said:

In OTL, the Tarascan emperor became a vassal of Spain after hearing about the capitulation of the Aztecs and a nasty smallpox outbreak. If the Tarascans are able to seize control of the former Aztec Empire, they would be in a much better position. A Tarascan Empire could be a good alternative to continued Aztec hegemony. Just an idea.

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The Tarascan Emperor became a vassal of Spain? How long did he continue ruling in his subordinate status? I thought with the collapse of the Aztec empire, all native political authority was extinguished.

robertp6165 said:

That might be true. Then it might not. I think that as soon as any European...Spaniard or not...finds out that there are relatively primitive people sitting there surrounded by tons of gold and silver, the freebooters and adventurers (which is really what the Conquistadors were) will be attracted like bottle flies to carrion.

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I do see your point, Robert, and you're most likely right, but would anyone but the Spaniards at the time actually be arrogant or megalomanic enough to take on a whole new world?! I suppose that's where traditions, world view and general attitude comes into play. I have no doubt that Europeans of any and all sort would try their best to rob the Americans blind, but not necessarily overrun the place and wipe out the native nations.

robertp6165 said:

And the POD suggested by Yossarian would have to assume that the Spanish are not there at all.(...)

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Quite right, but I believe it was a speculation made as a response to Tetsu Katana's remarks about a much earlier Scottish attempt at colonization etc etc.

robertp6165 said:

Pedro de Alvarado...or Francisco Pizarro...or any of the other famous Spanish Conquistadors, would likely have achieved the same result. The big thing is to make allies among the enemies of the Aztec, and let those allies do most of the fighting for you.

Click to expand...

Hmm, well, if I'm not all mistaken Velasquez (sp?) gave Cortez, who served with the former in Cuba, order (at Cortez' own request, I think) to establish a colony in present day Mexico. As we know Cortez took some liberties - to put it mildly -, like ignoring that his orders for departure got cancelled and what not, and set sail for Mexico anyway. Furthermore Cortez had the luck of meeting Malinche, who became his guide, interpreter and mistress. Cortez' history is full of odd little strokes of luck and incredible audacity - like burning the ships - etc etc. Would any of the others, Pizarro, Alvarado and who not, have been at the right place at the right time? And would they have crossed Velasquez in the same manner as Cortez?!

This is btw a rather interesting thread.

Best regards!

- Bluenote.