No Cold War

Xen

Banned
Let us assume Comrade Stalin dies the day after Soviet troops enter Berlin and his replacement sees a possible confrontation with the United States over Europe. Knowing the Soviets cant afford a longterm showdown with the USA he decides to negotiate a favorble peace terms for the USSR.

He allows all Eastern European countries to choose any form of government they wish, they must however give the Soviet military passing rights through their territory and may not join any foreign alliances. The exception being the Soviet annexation of the Baltic States, and a redrawing of the borders with Poland. Each nation may only have a standing military of 65,000 men.

Germany will be re-united with a capitalist government under the grandson of Kaiser Wilhelm II, and remain occupied by the allied forces. Each major power will be allowed only one division the major powers being the USSR, USA, France, UK, Poland and Ukraine. Outside of a small defense force controlled by the victorious allies, Germany under no circumstance will be allowed to re-arm.

The same deal is extended to Korea as well, Korea is united as a Republic with a Capitalist economy. All allied troops will withdrawal from Korea by 1950, and like Germany, each power will be limited to one division, the US, USSR and Britain will be the only nations sending divisions to Korea.

Capitalism rules most of post-war Europe, aside from the USSR, and Yugoslavia no other country is fully communist. Poland, Czechoslavkia, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania each have strong Communist Parties, however anti-communist coalition parties keep them in check.

The Civil War in China plays itself out similiar to OTL, when the Kuomantang flee to Taiwan, Mao requests and receives Soviet assistance in the form of troop transport ships. The United States condemns the invasion of Taiwan but does nothing to stop it. Kai-sheck again manages to escape the communists fleeing to the Philippines, from there he moves to San Francisco setting up a government in exile getting alot of support from Chinese-Americans.

The day after foreign troops leave Korea, Chinese supported Communists launch a rebellion, beginning the Korean Crisis that nearly plunged the United States into another war. President Truman ordered American troops to return to the peninsula accusing the USSR of foul play. American and ROK troops fought side by side against the communist rebels. China threatened to send troops to Korea unless the United States withdrew from the conflict. Truman wasnt about to be bullied by China, responded by sending the 101st Airborne.

Chinese troops crossed the Yalu River attacking the Americans and Koreans, and propping up Kim Il-Sung's government. The United States responded by blockading Hainan and Taiwan with the threat to invade and return the islands to the Kuomantang. Mao begin to hear the song of compromise and willingly came to the Paris Peace talks. China agreed to withdraw its support for Kim Il-Sung and recognize the capitalist Korean government in Seoul, the United States in turn would recognize the Peoples Republic of China and withdraw its recognition of Kai-Shecks exiled government.

Robert Taft, the leading contender for the Republican nomination died while on the campaign trail. Republican leaders tried to recruit Dwight Eisenhower into the fold, but the retired General preferred to remain as President of Colombia University. The Republicans turned to the liberal Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen against the conservative Democrat J. William Fulbright of Arkansas. The 1952 election turned into a nasty campaign of mudslinging and smear tactics, ultimatley Fulbright lost in a bitter campaign, only winning the 11 former Confederate States, plus the border states of Kentucky and West Virginia.
 
Xen said:
Robert Taft, the leading contender for the Republican nomination died while on the campaign trail. Republican leaders tried to recruit Dwight Eisenhower into the fold, but the retired General preferred to remain as President of Colombia University. The Republicans turned to the liberal Minnesota Governor Harold Stassen against the conservative Democrat J. William Fulbright of Arkansas. The 1952 election turned into a nasty campaign of mudslinging and smear tactics, ultimatley Fulbright lost in a bitter campaign, only winning the 11 former Confederate States, plus the border states of Kentucky and West Virginia.

I thought that Robert Taft's chances at the 1948 presidential race (and thus all those thereafter) were virtually non-existent after he opposed the Nazi War Crimes Trials on the principle of ex post facto, you know: you did something yesterday, and today congress passes a law against it, they can't prosecute you for it tomorrow, unless of course you do it again. That's what I drew from Profiles in Courage, at least. And I'm also curious, in general, as to why American politics have changed so drastically so soon -- not saying that they couldn't have, just wondering why you don't have Adlai Stevenson running against Eisenhower w/ more than just, he's happy as pres of CU. And also, did Bob Taft die in 1952 in OTL? If not, why did he in this one? :confused: I'm just usually not a fan of TLs that have multiple, unrelated PODs, and I'd just like to know how the death of Stalin (which appears to be the essential POD) will affect the lifespan of Bob Taft.

Actually I suppose if there is no threat from Soviet invasion in Europe, then Eisenhower would be able to go ahead and retire from the army, and therefore his public life in general. I'll have to ask my history prof about this -- he wrote a book about Eisenhower's decision to run for the presidency a few years ago.
 
I think some kind of deal to "Finlandize" Eastern Europe might have been possible.

But remember different Central and Eastern European lands would have different circumstances and would be looked on differently by all sides.

After the behaviour of the Soviet Union I do NOT believe that a pro Communist group would have polled respectably in honest elections.

On the other hand in OTL in most of Eastern Europe there were non Communists in government until Communists left governments in Western Europe.

Remember too that Romania and Hugary were Nazi allies in the war as was, in a slightly different way, Austria.

If a Cold war were avoided I would expect a much more severe DeNazification process in Germany.

By the way how big an issue was anti communism for Republicans in OTL. Might Nixon have lost the California Senate seat?

Without the Cold War would Truman's reputation be good?
 

Xen

Banned
csa945 said:
I thought that Robert Taft's chances at the 1948 presidential race (and thus all those thereafter) were virtually non-existent after he opposed the Nazi War Crimes Trials on the principle of ex post facto, you know: you did something yesterday, and today congress passes a law against it, they can't prosecute you for it tomorrow, unless of course you do it again. That's what I drew from Profiles in Courage, at least. And I'm also curious, in general, as to why American politics have changed so drastically so soon -- not saying that they couldn't have, just wondering why you don't have Adlai Stevenson running against Eisenhower w/ more than just, he's happy as pres of CU. And also, did Bob Taft die in 1952 in OTL? If not, why did he in this one? :confused: I'm just usually not a fan of TLs that have multiple, unrelated PODs, and I'd just like to know how the death of Stalin (which appears to be the essential POD) will affect the lifespan of Bob Taft.

Actually Taft was the leading Republican candidate in 1952, he was a staunch isolationist and was one of the reasons Eisenhower ran on the Republican ticket. If Taft ran and won in OTL he would withdrew the US from NATO, and Ike wouldnt have it.
 
Hmmm, as I've speculated in previous threads, would no Cold War in Europe also affect the nationalist struggles in the European colonial empires in Africa and Asia ? Would there still say be strong and successful Viet Minh resistance to the French without Red Chinese and Russian support ? Or would there be a case of the US, with its strong anti-colonialist policy, compelling all Western European allies to relinquish their empires by threatening to withhold Marshall Plan aid to these countries attempting to suppress strong non-Communist nationalist movements, as occurred with the Netherlands over Indonesia during 1945-50 ?
 
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