1944 Warsaw Uprising succeeds

Dunash

Banned
The August 1944 Warsaw uprising lasted 2 months and resulted in 300,000 Polish dead and the city being levelled. But it met with initial success. WI it had been timed differently, either later, or with the Soviets giving it help sufficient to oust the Gemans, so that when the Soviets arrive, 50,000 of the Armia Krajowa (Polish Home Army) are there to "greet" them? Would Stalin imediately order the Poles, whom he hated almost as much as the Germans, destroyed and Warsaw being levelled anyway, just as in OTL? Or would Anglo-American pressure & their usefulness cause him to hold off? With an intact Polish government and army of sorts, with what result on the war, and on post-war Europe?
 
You need somebody other than Stalin in charge, I guess. That guy was a ruthless power-monger and having any sort of independent Polish government would be anathema to him. Of course, if Soviet troops are greeted by the Home Army (loyal to the "London Poles") in control of the capital, Stalin might very well be in a difficult position and be forced to do something OTHER than exterminate the opposition, despite his personal misgivings.

He obliterated Vlasov's force in Prague (which turned on the Germans and tried to surrender the city to the US), but then he had the excuse that Vlasov was a traitor, which he wouldn't have in this scenario.
 
Would the Warsaw uprising become known in the Allied media early enough for it to take on the character of 'fact'? Stalin was fairly clear on whom he wanted to run things in Poland, so if his troops meet Polish partisans in control of the city but with little or no contactwith the outside world, he would very likely order his troops to disarm them and, in the event of resistance (even odds, I'd guess) kill them. Obviously, they were Nazi sympathisers at heart, resisting the forces of liberation entering their city...

If the victorious uprising was known well enough in the west to take on a recognisable 'catchword' quality, Stalin may have to bite back his instincts and accept the Polish 'Army' as Allies. He's still likely to make life difficult for them (I'm sure there are enough people in the Polish exile government in Moscow all too happy to oblige), but slaughtering heroes may just be too much for the West to stomach.

Didn't the Soviets have their own 'Polish People's Army'? How about he insists on brigading the two together, relying on the pulling power of the uprising to attract recruits from among the Polish partisans and manipulating the command structure to put his own brand of Communist in control? There were enough Nationalists and Democrats prepared to cooperate with stalin at the time, believing (against all evidence) that he would return independence to their nations or resignedly recognising him as the lesser evil. I'm sure a number of missions could be found for particularly troublesome personnel not to survive. Although, given Stalin's usual habits, there'd more likely be a few treason trials.
 
This reply goes totally against my long standing policy of never expressing any opinion here about the history of Poland, Ireland, Greece, or Israel. But for once I'll stick my head above the parapet. As far as I can see, there was no chance of the second Warsaw Uprising being postponed. The whole point of it was that the Poles had to be in control of the capital when the Red Army arrived. It was a political gesture, rather than a military one. In fact it was more than simply an uprising in Warsaw, indeed Warsaw was only included at the last moment. It seems to me exceedingly unlikely that the capital could have been held if the Germans decided to fight for it. But suppose it had succeeded? The same thing would have happened as happened in the places where the Polish Home Army did control cities. The officers were arrested, the men disarmed and given the choice between enlisting in the Russian controlled Polish forces or a labour camp.
 
Not to dfend Stalin's actions but there is more to Soviet part than "letting Poles be massacred". RA was running out of steam, faced defences which weren't easy to defeat and had to cross a river to take Warsaw. Of, course there is more to it than "Sovs couldn't do anything even if they wanted". Erickson covers this in quite details in "Road to Berlin".
 
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