A Change is as Good as a Rest...
 

Lets suppose for the sake of argument, that the Central Powers win World War One. Now, in light of the Empire's vast gains in the east and northern France, as well as Africa (Togo, the German Africas, Congo, Gabon)and Asia (everything they had is restored, plus Indochina), that Wilhlem the II decides to do away w/the Reichstag. Since the army is strong enough, he figures he can get away with it. The Great Man of Europe doesn't answer to anyone.

It doesn't take long for the other ruling houses to take offense to what the Prussians are up to, and rightly fear that the Hohenzollerns will try to grab the other families' power. Bavaria, Saxony, Baden, and Wurtemburg demand the Hohenzollerns step down and another family be elected to rule the Empire. Since technically Imperial Germany was a federation, I'm sure some obscure clause in the Constitution could be pointed at.

Would do you suppose the result would be if the Wittelsbachs etc. made a concerted effort to dump Willy and his family? Since the Imperial Army was constituted of contingents from all the German states, I don't think all the regiments and generals would automatically side with the Prussians. Is there a civil war? Do the socialists choose this as the right time for their Spartakus uprising? Is there a bloodbath at Potsdam? I'm interested to hear your ideas - what do you think would happen, and who could stand the best chance of taking the throne? *Note*Possible contestants might also be leading German nobles who don't have a throne anymore (HRE had -I think- about 300 princes, so there could be any number of 'rightful' Kaisers). Just go crazy/have fun - but try to keep it in the realm of plausible.

WIlly won't be the Great Man of Europe. By 1916, Ludendorff and Hindenberg were effectively military dictators of Germany. The day before the Chancellor sent the notice that Willy had abdicated (he hadn't, but the Chancellor wasn't going to wait for him to do it), Willy specifically said to Hindenberg that he, the Kaiser, regarded Hindenberg as his superior in power.

Now consider Ludendorff's later activities - blaming his failure to win on the Reichstag, being elected to the Reichstag as one of the first Nazi deputies - and you have a picture of postwar victorious Central Powers...

Austria is a different matter. Emperor Karl... well, he wanted to end the war, or at least Austria's part in it. But the Italians and his generals shafted him. Again, the country was largely a military government by the end of the war.

Victory in the war would only make that worse...

So...Hindenburg and Luddendorf pressure Kaiser Wilhelm to suspend the Reichstag indefinitely - those bloody Socialists are always a menace(!) Otherwise, pretty much as I suggested - H/L use the Kaiser as their mouthpiece and basically govern the Empire. The various other monarchs 'brothers' of Wilhelm, panic when their prerogatives are stepped on. They complain, the military tells them to stuff it, and voila, they decide they've had enough of the Hohenzollerns.

No-one in Europe has cared who exactly the ruling family of a place is since... about 1763. The Franco-Prussian War was ostensibly about the Spanish Succession, but in reality...

The ruling families of the German states aren't going to bitch about Hohenzollern power because the Hohenzollern's don't have any power, and neither do the other families. The military has the power, and it'd have even more power if it actually managed to win the Great War - which only allied cowardice or incompetence could manage.

Wily II lives on until 1940, remember. Assuming the same lifespan, look for AH Willy to become a sort of OTL Hindenberg. By the time of his death, it's all power to the other leadership.

From a pure power-crunching perspective, Ludendorff and Hindenberg would rather have a Reichstag than a Kaiser. A kaiser is one man, it's hard to predict what he'll do. A Reichstag's members come and go, and it's a lot easier to bribe or threaten them.

Go to the kaiser demanding your dictatorial powers be made law, he might say "no" or shoot himself or something, and then you're stuck. But a Reichstag can be fooled, bluffed, tricked or threatened with stormtroopers. Worked for Corporal Schicklegruber.

Here's this old AH I did where the Central Powers win. It needs updating, but it gives you the idea. http://www.changingthetimes.co.uk/sa...ww1/petain.htm

I see it more the other way around, that democratic reforms and a stronger push in the direction of the social democrats is possible (like britain after ww2)

- if you have a victorious germany, you cannot overlook the fact that nearly every group the ruling elite was at least slightly suspicious of, worked and fought for victory.
the catholics, the ethnic minorities (poles, danes, alsacians), the majority social democrats voted for the war budget, and their radical "peace" wing (rosa luxemburg, liebknecht) are not only politically discredited but are in a fortress anyway.
So what i miss here is the reason for a dictatorship: from whom exactly has the country to be saved.
I can see massive political turmoil when the Reich, esp. Prussia has to pull it´s political system from the early 19th into the early 20th century, most notably the three-tier voting system that overepresents the landowning class,
the county administration for the rural areas, the municipial elections but that´s nothing for a real revolution. Ludendorff and Hindenburg (please notice the "u" in his name") could muster enough bayonets for seizing power, but they lack legitimacy for holding power. And what should their political aims be?

And, very important: the other german states`governments would surely object, so it is an impossible situation.

I think it rather instructive to look at the OTL collapse of the power of the Third Supreme Command. A military leadership can usurp power during war but once the need and legitimacy of that power is questioned then they have nothing to fall back upon.

Grey Wolf

I have two things to say with regard to this comment.
1. In the Great War, there were severe blunders on both sides, so incompetence on either side could end the war early.

2. There were some bad spots for the Entente. Had France lost at the Marne, it might not have blown France out of the war--but it certainly would have been a severe moralle blow--and perhaps made the French willing to make even more desperate, suicidal attaks into machine gun fire.

Had Ingenhol been more agressive and pinched off a portion of the Grand Fleet, giving the Germans naval parity, then Britian would, IMHO, put more focus on building expensive battleships at the expense of land artillery.
There are many other points where things could have taken an early turn for the worse--for either side.

Once the USA enters the war, Germany needs a decisive victiry right away, or it will be burried in American troops, backed up by battleships, tanks and planes. The fresh USA, with its huge industrial might, simply could not be defeated in a long 1918 war unless it lost the will to fight.