Deleted member 1487
As a counter point to the Germany in WW1 thread, assuming that the US does not enter the war in 1917, how long could the Entente last?
Lately it seems to be fashionable to state that Germany and the Central Powers would have lost anyway, but based off the information that Mikestone has contributed vis-a-vis the ending of American loans in 1917 (thanks again for all the info and book recommendations), it seems that France and Russia would have run out of money once the US spigot is shut off. The British could have financed their own war effort without US loans though.
POD: Ferdinand I of Romania is more cautious and does not enter the war in 1916, meaning that the Russians are stopped even earlier during the Brusilov campaign and are defeated as in OTL, just slightly earlier.
This enables Falkenhayn to barely maintain his position as Chief of Staff of OHL throughout 1916 with several results. First and foremost the Hindenburg program never gets enacted and the fragile German economy is not pushed over the edge by the ill thought out fantasy that Ludendorff, his cronies, and German industrialists forced on the War Ministry.
As a result going in to 1917 the German home front is more stabile, meaning less unrest and strikes as the coersive labor mobilization bill isn't passed; production is actually higher than OTL 1917 because scare resources aren't used to build factories that were never put to use as under the Hindenburg Program; the army is bigger because workers aren't demobilized to work in these factories that are never put to use; and because there is not a collapse in coal mining from the strikes trains have enough fuel to distribute food to cities, meaning less hunger in Germany.
Perhaps more importantly is that at the Pless Conference Bethmann-Hollweg has a critical ally in blocking the resumption of Unrestricted Submarine Warfare: Falkenhayn. Without Ludendorff pushing for the navy's plan while running OHL the measure fails, meaning that there is no Zimmerman Note and therefore no US declaration of war in April 1917.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pless_conference
Bethmann is scape-goated for blocking the act and is dropped as in OTL. Georg Michaelis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georg_Michaelis
is now the Chancellor, but he is little more than a puppet of Falkenhayn, who is now essentially dictator of Germany. His position, which was critically weakened by the events of 1916, is now unassailable thanks to revolution in Russia and the US cutting off loans to the Entente while putting pressure on the Entente to negotiate.
The most important result of all this is that by mid-1917 Germany's leader realizes that negotiation is key and sees no gain in forcing a Brest-Litovsk or holding on to Belgium. He is also pro-labor and anti-Industrialists, as they have been pushing for his removal from office, meaning he is sympathetic to their plight instead of OTLs Ludendorff, who tried to conscript labor into the army, prompting several crippling strikes.
Instead of holding out for total victory Falkenhayn wants to negotiate, albeit from a position of strength. What happens now in the Entente camp?
Lately it seems to be fashionable to state that Germany and the Central Powers would have lost anyway, but based off the information that Mikestone has contributed vis-a-vis the ending of American loans in 1917 (thanks again for all the info and book recommendations), it seems that France and Russia would have run out of money once the US spigot is shut off. The British could have financed their own war effort without US loans though.
POD: Ferdinand I of Romania is more cautious and does not enter the war in 1916, meaning that the Russians are stopped even earlier during the Brusilov campaign and are defeated as in OTL, just slightly earlier.
This enables Falkenhayn to barely maintain his position as Chief of Staff of OHL throughout 1916 with several results. First and foremost the Hindenburg program never gets enacted and the fragile German economy is not pushed over the edge by the ill thought out fantasy that Ludendorff, his cronies, and German industrialists forced on the War Ministry.
As a result going in to 1917 the German home front is more stabile, meaning less unrest and strikes as the coersive labor mobilization bill isn't passed; production is actually higher than OTL 1917 because scare resources aren't used to build factories that were never put to use as under the Hindenburg Program; the army is bigger because workers aren't demobilized to work in these factories that are never put to use; and because there is not a collapse in coal mining from the strikes trains have enough fuel to distribute food to cities, meaning less hunger in Germany.
Perhaps more importantly is that at the Pless Conference Bethmann-Hollweg has a critical ally in blocking the resumption of Unrestricted Submarine Warfare: Falkenhayn. Without Ludendorff pushing for the navy's plan while running OHL the measure fails, meaning that there is no Zimmerman Note and therefore no US declaration of war in April 1917.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pless_conference
Bethmann is scape-goated for blocking the act and is dropped as in OTL. Georg Michaelis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georg_Michaelis
is now the Chancellor, but he is little more than a puppet of Falkenhayn, who is now essentially dictator of Germany. His position, which was critically weakened by the events of 1916, is now unassailable thanks to revolution in Russia and the US cutting off loans to the Entente while putting pressure on the Entente to negotiate.
The most important result of all this is that by mid-1917 Germany's leader realizes that negotiation is key and sees no gain in forcing a Brest-Litovsk or holding on to Belgium. He is also pro-labor and anti-Industrialists, as they have been pushing for his removal from office, meaning he is sympathetic to their plight instead of OTLs Ludendorff, who tried to conscript labor into the army, prompting several crippling strikes.
Instead of holding out for total victory Falkenhayn wants to negotiate, albeit from a position of strength. What happens now in the Entente camp?
