Would the French Revolution occur if ARW averted?

Gordian

I've heard some people argue that it might not have, due to the fact that some parts, including the Declaration of the Rights of the Man, were directly inspired by the American Revolution.

On the other hand, the Enlightenment still occurred, and the debt that Louis XVI attained did not come entirely from the American Revolution. Also, the people possibly would not want to live under an absolute monarchy.

I'm just wondering, what do you think?
 
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NolanFoster

If it happens after France commits to aiding the Americans, it could be a blow to French prestige, hastening the breakout of revolution. Conversely, it could spur reform in France and prevent the kind of revolution that broke out IOTL. Knowing Louis XVI, the second seems unlikely, so the most likely outcome re France of an American defeat is to have the revolution come a few years earlier. I really don't buy into the idea that the lack of an American republic stunts the growth of liberal and republican ideas in France. Revolution in France had a separate development IOTL and would probably draw inspiration from the American attempt at independence regardless.
 
Diagram

Diagram

Considering the domestic problems created by the massive debt, a revoltion would still happen but it's make up would be unrecognizable due to the butterflies.
 

Gordian

NolanFoster said:
If it happens after France commits to aiding the Americans, it could be a blow to French prestige, hastening the breakout of revolution. Conversely, it could spur reform in France and prevent the kind of revolution that broke out IOTL. Knowing Louis XVI, the second seems unlikely, so the most likely outcome re France of an American defeat is to have the revolution come a few years earlier. I really don't buy into the idea that the lack of an American republic stunts the growth of liberal and republican ideas in France. Revolution in France had a separate development IOTL and would probably draw inspiration from the American attempt at independence regardless.
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Wasn't Revolutionary France essentially a constitutional monarchy from 1789-92 anyway?

Maybe that could last longer, especially if the Girondists retain power.
 

Keperry

Well, if we go by the theory that the French Revolution was inspired by the American Revolution, even if the Americans lose the ideas they put out and their articulations (Declaration of Independence, Common Sense, etc.) would probably have still been out there by the time they lost. So the question is, would the French Revolution still have happened if there never were an American Revolution in the first place (say, if the British enact reforms to give the colonies some representation before things can reach war)?
 

Gordian

Keperry said:
So the question is, would the French Revolution still have happened if there never were an American Revolution in the first place (say, if the British enact reforms to give the colonies some representation before things can reach war)?
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That was my original intention when I created the question, I apologize, I should have been more clearer.
 

Socrates

Enlightenment thought in France (and the Netherlands for that matter) moved a lot during the American Revolution. The end goals didn't necessarily change, but the means did. Prior to the revolution, there was a natural belief that these changes would have to be brought in from above, as obviously the King/government had all the power. After the ARW, the belief came in that change could come in via insurgency from the people.

Still, I think a failed American Revolution and a successful one might not make too much difference. An averted one, on the other hand, could see a lot longer before revolutionary ideas come to fruition in Europe.
 

Gordian

Socrates said:
Still, I think a failed American Revolution and a successful one might not make too much difference. An averted one, on the other hand, could see a lot longer before revolutionary ideas come to fruition in Europe.
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Would they, I mean, the idea of a constitutional monarchy wasn't exactly foreign to Europe.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
The debt caused by the ARW could have been solved quite easily had tax enforcement actually been at least semi competent. The causes were structural, and the debt of the moment and many other factors made the French Revolution possible, but something was going to happen at some point.
 

Direwolf22

Yes I think it would.

The ground work and resentment was there. However, and its a big however, it would have looked and felt very different, and may well have been unsuccessful.

Without the influence of revolutionary America and (as others have mentioned) without the financial costs of French intervention, the monarchy may well have survived any uprising.
 

MarshalofMontival

Direwolf22 said:
Yes I think it would.

The ground work and resentment was there. However, and its a big however, it would have looked and felt very different, and may well have been unsuccessful.

Without the influence of revolutionary America and (as others have mentioned) without the financial costs of French intervention, the monarchy may well have survived any uprising.
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I'll grant you that the monarchy may have survived, but you can bet that the trauma resulting from even an attempted revolution would be massive. Which can lead to one of two things.

Firstly, the monarchy can go full dictator and crack down on ANY anti-monarchist sentiment.

Secondly, the monarchy can decide to find out exactly WHY their people hate them so much and open an investigation into their government, with an eye towards reforms.

The decision trees from each decision are too multitudinous to go into here, but either way, France is going to be a mess for at least a decade after any failed revolution.
 

Max Sinister

Banned
France still would have problems, people would still be discontent, but maybe they'd say "Revolution? Nah, that never works."
 

Circonflexe

Hey, the ideas of the American revolution are not all “made-in-Murica” ideas. They were actually floating quite a lot in (west) European salons before 1776 (one might even dare to say that they inspired it). So even with no American revolution, something is likely to happen. (For example, look at Poland, where something (small) was starting to happen - it is impossible to say with a straight face that 1790's Poland was freedomed by America!). Even the concept of insurrection was nothing new (look at Hussites, English revolutions, Dutch insurrection, Fronde etc). What was a bit new was the concept of a large-scale democracy, as the previous experiments in republics were usually failed (England), small-scale (United provinces), oligarchic (both of them), or any combination of these (Venice). Or irrelevant (Switzerland, San Marino).
 

Reydan

Circonflexe said:
Hey, the ideas of the American revolution are not all “made-in-Murica” ideas. They were actually floating quite a lot in (west) European salons before 1776 (one might even dare to say that they inspired it). So even with no American revolution, something is likely to happen. (For example, look at Poland, where something (small) was starting to happen - it is impossible to say with a straight face that 1790's Poland was freedomed by America!). Even the concept of insurrection was nothing new (look at Hussites, English revolutions, Dutch insurrection, Fronde etc). What was a bit new was the concept of a large-scale democracy, as the previous experiments in republics were usually failed (England), small-scale (United provinces), oligarchic (both of them), or any combination of these (Venice). Or irrelevant (Switzerland, San Marino).
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Basically this.

The idea that French soldiers brought the revolution back in their backpacks from America is pretty simplistic.

Enlightenment thought is completely crucial in France and exists long before the ARW.

The debt crisis is a major factor, but there is no reason why this would not have occurred under another guise - as other posters have stated the French Royal tax system was creaking and groaning by the 1770s anyway.

Whether the Revolution would have taken quite the form it did, of course, would have been another matter. Lafayette would have played a much less important role without his ARW service to make him appealing to the Revolutionaries, but this might actually be to their advantage as he was pretty useless at making up his mind as to whose side he was on.

But if you look at the early stages of the Revolution, particularly Sieyes' "What is the Third Estate?" that proved so vital to the early revolutionaries, the ideology is much more European than American.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_Is_the_Third_Estate%3F

TLDR - ARW an inspiration but not a root cause
 

Yorel

Even if the American Revolutionnary War increased the problem, France's economic and financial situation was still far from optimal before said conflict. Plus, the country and the Ancien Régime were more or less reaching a breaking point as it was becoming harder to reform due to the parlements' opposition to Louis XVI's policies.

If Louis XVI and his government manage to solve these problems, then the French Revolution would probably be butterflied. If not, Louis XVI will have to call the Estates General at one point and thus the French Revolution could still happen. The only difference that no ARW would bring is probably the fact the French Revolution would be delayed by a certain amount of years. That delay could furthermore have some effects on how the events play out.
 

Mikestone8

Diagram said:
Considering the domestic problems created by the massive debt, a revoltion would still happen but it's make up would be unrecognizable due to the butterflies.
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Indeed. No bankruptcy means no calling of the States-General, and so no National Assembly as we know it.

There were several Provincial Estates where voting was by head and not by order, and the Third Estate had half the combined membership. These might have provided a forum for discontent, which might then have spread to other parts of France. This could lead to a revolution which started in the Provinces rather than in Paris, perhaps leading to a “United States of France” with less of the “une et indivisible” attitude..
 

Socrates

Danderns said:
Does the Eighty Years' War count as an insurrection?
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Yes, but that was towards the ends of independence. Not to create a brave new world along rationalist Enlightenment lines. Before the mid 1770s, the modus operandi of Enlightenment thinkers was that social progress would be achieved via monarchs thinking beyond their own power. That changed dramatically due to the Revolution. The Dutch Patriots explicitly were inspired by the Americans. The French were inspired by the Dutch and the Americans. And virtually everyone else was inspired by the French.

Circonflexe said:
Hey, the ideas of the American revolution are not all “made-in-Murica” ideas. They were actually floating quite a lot in (west) European salons before 1776 (one might even dare to say that they inspired it). So even with no American revolution, something is likely to happen. (For example, look at Poland, where something (small) was starting to happen - it is impossible to say with a straight face that 1790's Poland was freedomed by America!). Even the concept of insurrection was nothing new (look at Hussites, English revolutions, Dutch insurrection, Fronde etc). What was a bit new was the concept of a large-scale democracy, as the previous experiments in republics were usually failed (England), small-scale (United provinces), oligarchic (both of them), or any combination of these (Venice). Or irrelevant (Switzerland, San Marino).
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As mentioned above, the idea of achieving social progress by insurrection was the key element. The other insurrections you mention had other aims:

- Hussites: a war for religious faith
- English revolution: power struggle between nobility and monarchy
- Dutch insurrection: national independence
- Fronde: power struggle between nobility and monarchy

I agree with you about large scale democracy, though you miss Corsica from your list, which is the closest parallel.

Yorel said:
Even if the American Revolutionnary War increased the problem, France's economic and financial situation was still far from optimal before said conflict. Plus, the country and the Ancien Régime were more or less reaching a breaking point as it was becoming harder to reform due to the parlements' opposition to Louis XVI's policies.
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France could simply have defaulted on its debts again without calling the Estates General.
 

Yorel

Socrates said:
France could simply have defaulted on its debts again without calling the Estates General.
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True, but declaring bankruptcy generally leads to nasty side-effects.
 
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