What are chances of at least one American Indian tribe/nation modernizing along the lines of how Meiji Japan did? How will this affect American history?
AHC/WI: American Indians "pull a Meiji"
- Thread starter The Forty-Eighth Rōnin
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There's a few TLs where this is being explored, such as Donacona's Dream, Minarets of Atlantis, and the Count of Years (there's also my TL, but it's on hiatus). There's also Lands of Ice and Mice, Peccary Rex, and one about te Pacific Northwest peoples (can't remember its name) that have PoDs that occur thousands of years ago to have more wide spread and metal using societies across the Americas prior to contact. The general consensus for those of us really interested in exploring these types of TLs is you need a POD early on or before contact to really pull this off. I can think of a few other scenarios around the time of the States are formed that might have a slim chance of working, but even then its going to involve close to ASB levels of luck for such a state to survive.
The 800 pound gorilla in this particular room is smallpox. It's spectacularly nasty, and still awful even after it's been endemic for centuries and millennia. Whenever it makes contact in North America, it's going to be an outbreak of doomsday like proportions.
Often, the pod has to be earlier and more widespread animal domestication, or something and even than that doesn't always explain why a smallpox immunity cross the pond before the pox.
Potentially, you could write in just enough pre-Columbian contact that small pox makes the jump and the populations have the time to rebuild, but that's a lot of luck, almost to the ASB level given naval technology, to pull off. A one plague ship pod might work, but it might just smell funny.
Often, the pod has to be earlier and more widespread animal domestication, or something and even than that doesn't always explain why a smallpox immunity cross the pond before the pox.
Potentially, you could write in just enough pre-Columbian contact that small pox makes the jump and the populations have the time to rebuild, but that's a lot of luck, almost to the ASB level given naval technology, to pull off. A one plague ship pod might work, but it might just smell funny.
It wouldn't smell funny, if the ship in question looked like this...
A surviving New France could've allowed some of the local nations and tribes to survive, too - as long as the number of French people in New France remained small enough to avoid posing a threat to the aforementioned tribes. As far as I know, in the years before the Seven Years' War, the French were allied to several American Indian nations, and the two peoples were adopting each other's customs and even, in some cases, intermarrying. There would've been conflicts between the French and the natives, of course, but maybe they could've avoided the cultural and physical genocide of several nations.
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It wouldn't smell funny, if the ship in question looked like this...
A surviving New France could've allowed some of the local nations and tribes to survive, too - as long as the number of French people in New France remained small enough to avoid posing a threat to the aforementioned tribes. As far as I know, in the years before the Seven Years' War, the French were allied to several American Indian nations, and the two peoples were adopting each other's customs and even, in some cases, intermarrying. There would've been conflicts between the French and the natives, of course, but maybe they could've avoided the cultural and physical genocide of several nations.
You've obviously never smelled luttefisk...
Bluntly, there's the logistical question of sustaining a settlement against hostile natives at the distances and with the technology that the Norse had. That's probably your best bet, but the Norse are a poor channel for the general endemic European diseases because of the amount of time it takes to get from Scandinavia to Newfoundland in those ships. They might be your channel though.
Am I the only one who thinks the phrase "pulling a Meiji" needs to be retired? It always feels like an oversimplification. And in this case, Native Americans had more than just technology and diseases to adjust to, they'd also get tripped up by political disunity and simple demographics. You for sure need a POD well before Columbus to fix this up, but that'll make the world unrecognizable in so many other ways, as well.
Political disunity of Native Americans is a bit overplayed, I'm honestly a bit tired of how people act as if it'd only be natural for two entire continents of diverse people to have been a single community when nobody talks about Asia or Europe suffering from the horrible flaw of disunity in the past. You could just pick a strong Native-American country to "pull a Meiji" or whatever, it's not impossible. The Maya, although not unified, formed an independent nation strong enough to maintain independence for over half a century despite warring with neighboring Yucatan and Mexico the whole time, not counting the various towns independent from both Mexico and Chan Santa Cruz.
I think the mentions of disunity are an effort to combat the general public's stance of 'everyone was peaceful pals before the Whites showed up' that seems weirdly popular.
takerma
Banned
Maybe better example would be Sengoku time Japan and contact with Portuguese. So you need to get some area probably Maya? to get to the Japan level of development in Sengoku(which would be pretty close to European level). Then they can quickly adopt and mass produce guns and European will not have much of a chance. Perhaps some indigenous disease to be brought back to Europe and have Bubonic plague type effect to slow Europe down?
Recently I been curious about the mortality rates of the smalpox. Some numbers I seen thrown around suggest something that was significantly deadlier then Bubonic plague or pretty much any other epidemic that ever hit Europe or Asia. Anyone have suggestions on anything good to read about this?
Recently I been curious about the mortality rates of the smalpox. Some numbers I seen thrown around suggest something that was significantly deadlier then Bubonic plague or pretty much any other epidemic that ever hit Europe or Asia. Anyone have suggestions on anything good to read about this?
They did modernize. The Plains tribes took up riding horses,Navajo began herding sheep, Pacific Northwest tribes started putting cannons and swivel guns on their war canoes and the Five Civilized Tribes fully adapted white culture. But for them to have the same level as the Europeans,Africans and Asians is hard to do because of geography,lack of large domesticable animals and a strong navigational package. Plus the Old World has a much longer human history than the New World minus Australia, so they have much more experience.
Meh.
The Mapuche were independent and in a constant state of war with everyone for 300 years. The Maya are nothing compared to them. Mapuche are by far the ones that have the best chance at "pulling a Meiji", considering they already adopted quite a few things from the Europeans in order to survive as long as they did.
while its a long shot but certainly possible for one or more groups to modernize (those with the best tools would probably be the Mesoamericans or the Andes), i'd say that the chances for them pulling an all-out meiji is somewhere in the negative 1000s.
They don't have the high literacy population, they don't have the strong proto-mechanized industry, they don't have a strong centralization, much less a history of centralization and bureaucracy.
They are on the other hand harried by unimmunized diseases, many of them sit on prime estate which either have precious metals or high grade pasturing area, they happen to live somewhere were the European world would be very interested in settling themselves, they are ages behind in military technology, which in this case include knowledge of how to build, maintain and evolve on it and not just "point at enemy, pull trigger, reload".
Land of Ice and mice (which is the only one mentioned that i've read) succeeds due to the fact that they have a argicultural package that is superior to the european one in their actic land, and that European gains by settling there chasing them away would give much lower profit margin than trading.
They don't have the high literacy population, they don't have the strong proto-mechanized industry, they don't have a strong centralization, much less a history of centralization and bureaucracy.
They are on the other hand harried by unimmunized diseases, many of them sit on prime estate which either have precious metals or high grade pasturing area, they happen to live somewhere were the European world would be very interested in settling themselves, they are ages behind in military technology, which in this case include knowledge of how to build, maintain and evolve on it and not just "point at enemy, pull trigger, reload".
Land of Ice and mice (which is the only one mentioned that i've read) succeeds due to the fact that they have a argicultural package that is superior to the european one in their actic land, and that European gains by settling there chasing them away would give much lower profit margin than trading.
Avoid the Inca succession crisis; the Spanish exploring team dismally fail in their conquest. The Inca get a good trade deal with Spain, and the wealthy learn to write the Quechua language. I think it's conceivable that they would survive to the present day, and maybe industrialize.
The United Tible Could
Yes, I know was Protectorate of British empire was it was america best interest to destroy and as-well to expand, But Few One could doing such an things
Yes, I know was Protectorate of British empire was it was america best interest to destroy and as-well to expand, But Few One could doing such an things
Well, the period did bring massive changes to Native American life. Even the introduction of the firearm alone would have massive societal implications, not to mention disease, horses, etc. I think it wouldn't be inaccurate to call this period one of unprecedented political turmoil.
Given what they had to work with, it's amazing how fast native peoples adapted in OTL. Unfortunately, European immigrants just didn't stop coming.
Given what they had to work with, it's amazing how fast native peoples adapted in OTL. Unfortunately, European immigrants just didn't stop coming.
Land of Salmon and Totems.
The Kal'llan or Hai'llan may have been primed to withstand the assault of European powers by the time a century later they do get in full contact with the Euros but smallpox pretty much acts like a brick wall for them. Ending the Kal'llan and ushering in invasion, civil war, famine, etcetcetc.
None of those are really 'modernizing' though, just naturally advancing technologically, compared to a total adoption of foreign advanced technologies and practices.