AHC/WI: Japan as Cuba, in a *Cold War setting.

As it says on the tin: try to come up with a scenario, in which not only Japan faces a situation much like OTL Cuba(a close ally of a far-removed power, close to one of their biggest enemies, and armed with a fair number of nuclear and other weapons), but Cuba is in a reverse scenario(not quite as close to *their* ally, and with no nukes).

Bonus points are awarded if Cuba is a Yugoslavia analogue at some point, and if the ally of Japan is *not* the United States.

Somehow rig a Nationalist victory in the Chinese Civil War and have Japan fall to Communism. And not just Communism, but pro-Soviet Communism. Japan actually has had and currently does have a very strong and respected and civil Communist party.

EDIT: Just noticed the sub-forum this was in

Japan could hardly be considered friendly with China and Russia even before their respective revolutions, and I'd imagine there'd be a lot of tension between them with or without communism. You could have Dutch or British interests there see the Japanese falling closer to their sphere of influence, and from there...

Without the US-imposed peace treaty following WWII, I could easily imagine Japan being able to develop its own arsenal just fine without foreign basing.

As for Cuba, like I said before you could have America attempt to take it and fail, leaving the Cubans with a bad taste in their mouth over US foreign policy and closer align themselves to another power instead.