WI: Hooker isn't hit by a cannonball?

Inspired in part by this thread https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=343485 I ask you all a WI I haven't seen before. The PoD is that the cannonball that hit the post Hooker was leaning against instead misses it completely and passes by harmlessly. So without that happening how does Chancellorsville go and if Lee ends up loosing and looses badly what effects will this have on the rest of the war?

Whatever happens, if Hooker is not wounded things go better for the Union. Stalemate, win, or a less disastrous loss. A huge part of the problem was the disruption of command and control. With somebody in charge, even Hooker, things go better...how much so hard to say.

If Hooker hadn't been disabled by that lucky cannon shot, I can see Chancellorsville turning out as a Union victory in spite of Jackson's brilliant rout of the XI Corps. IIRC, it was in his disordered state that Hooker ordered Sickles to abandon Hazel Grove, which was the key to the battlefield and probably could have been held. Occupying Hazel Grove gave the Confederate artillery domination of the battlefield (the only time this happened in the Eastern Theater of the Civil War) and proved to be decisive in terms of the battle's outcome.

If Hooker had counter-attacked on May 3, he might have smashed Lee's army to pieces. On May 4 and May 5, Hooker could have attacked with even greater odds of success, as Lee had detached divisions to deal with Sedgwick farther east. Furthermore, it the AotP had not withdrawn on May 5-6, Lee might have gone ahead with his plan to attack and shattered his army against the excellent position that the Union army had by then taken. Any of these scenarios could have given the Union a clear victory, which would have radically altered the course of the war.

President Hooker in 1864?

Anaxagoras said:

If Hooker hadn't been disabled by that lucky cannon shot, I can see Chancellorsville turning out as a Union victory in spite of Jackson's brilliant rout of the XI Corps. IIRC, it was in his disordered state that Hooker ordered Sickles to abandon Hazel Grove, which was the key to the battlefield and probably could have been held. Occupying Hazel Grove gave the Confederate artillery domination of the battlefield (the only time this happened in the Eastern Theater of the Civil War) and proved to be decisive in terms of the battle's outcome.

If Hooker had counter-attacked on May 3, he might have smashed Lee's army to pieces. On May 4 and May 5, Hooker could have attacked with even greater odds of success, as Lee had detached divisions to deal with Sedgwick farther east. Furthermore, it the AotP had not withdrawn on May 5-6, Lee might have gone ahead with his plan to attack and shattered his army against the excellent position that the Union army had by then taken. Any of these scenarios could have given the Union a clear victory, which would have radically altered the course of the war.

President Hooker in 1864?

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I am personally skeptical. Hooker had effectively given Lee the initiative on the 2nd when he called off offensive actions and basically turtled himself at Chancellorsville which left him reacting to Lee's audacious attacks (which Hooker didn't even seem able to conceive of) and since he had lost his nerve by this point, its unlikely we get any outcome other than a Union withdrawal. This is especially with Jackson routing XI Corps, Hooker would be well aware of the effects of another such disaster and would instead have simply turned tail sooner. Also he had ordered Sickles out of Hazel Grove on the 2nd, well before his run in with the cannon ball. Most of the mistakes leading to his defeat were well before he was knocked senseless.

It could be less of a crushing defeat with a more cognitive Hooker, but its going to get him replaced nontheless.

I'm doubtful any of the men present could have done a better job or assumed more precise overall command of the army.

Hooker lost his nerve and went on the defense, however up until this point he was still making coherent and logical, albeit cautious, decisions.

If Sickles holds Hazel Grove, the battle really cannot be won by Lee unless Longstreet comes up.

Chancellorsville could turn into even more of a meat grinder than it was, which of course would benefit Hooker. Lee still suffered high casualties even in a decisive win. If it turns into a stalemate where the Union has the artillery edge, which Hazel Grove allows them to, and Sedgwick comes up, Lee either fights and sees half of his army disintegrated in bloody fighting, or he retreats.

Hooker for all we know could have regained his nerve without being concussed and with some defensive success, which Sickles could have provided, he might be emboldened to go back on the attack, in which case, Lee is fucked until Longstreet gets there, and of course, Longstreet won't be there at least until the 9th.

I think Lee could have executed a very successful withdrawal, as he showed he could in 1864, but you really have to wonder if Hooker is able to push him back, link up with Sedgewick, and get Lee to have to fight on open ground if his army is going to survive the encounter. Lee had not yet fully learned the lessons of Gettysburg about entrenchment.

Of course, a Confederate loss that leads to Jackson somehow surviving could have any myriad of effects.

FrozenMix said:

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True about Hooker having lost his never but as you said up until that point he was at least making logical and coherent decisions. Always thought without the cannonball at worst the battle would have ended in a draw which would've probably been enough to keep Hooker in charge for at least one more campaign.

EnglishCanuck said:

I am personally skeptical. Hooker had effectively given Lee the initiative on the 2nd when he called off offensive actions and basically turtled himself at Chancellorsville which left him reacting to Lee's audacious attacks (which Hooker didn't even seem able to conceive of) and since he had lost his nerve by this point, its unlikely we get any outcome other than a Union withdrawal. This is especially with Jackson routing XI Corps, Hooker would be well aware of the effects of another such disaster and would instead have simply turned tail sooner. Also he had ordered Sickles out of Hazel Grove on the 2nd, well before his run in with the cannon ball. Most of the mistakes leading to his defeat were well before he was knocked senseless.

It could be less of a crushing defeat with a more cognitive Hooker, but its going to get him replaced nontheless.

I'm doubtful any of the men present could have done a better job or assumed more precise overall command of the army.

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It was tricky, but there was a corps, Reynolds, which had hardly been used. The way I have it in "Brotherhood and Baseball," when Hooker doesn't wake up/has a much worse concussion Couch takes over and basebally orders Reynolds to march backa nd relieve Sedgwick, concerned that since Sedgwick hasn't come yet he might be getting hammered. Basically Reynolds rolls up on the rear of a Confederate arm and it causes a big mess.

However, that's basically flying by the seat of his pants, whereas if Hooker remains coherent, he's going to leave Reynolds there and that might make it very hard for them to win that big. If it remains simply a draw and not a Union win, the question is, does he keep try9ing? or does he withdraw as so many other Union generals had?Even when Grant lost at North Anna, there were worries they would retreat, and huge cheers when it was announced they were going to keep going forward.

DTF955Baseballfan said:

However, that's basically flying by the seat of his pants, whereas if Hooker remains coherent, he's going to leave Reynolds there and that might make it very hard for them to win that big. If it remains simply a draw and not a Union win, the question is, does he keep try9ing? or does he withdraw as so many other Union generals had?Even when Grant lost at North Anna, there were worries they would retreat, and huge cheers when it was announced they were going to keep going forward.

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Well the thing is, you have to know whether this is a Hooker who has lost his nerve or not. If Hooker hadn't lost his nerve on the first and kept going it could have been a very crushing victory, but without his nerve any time after that he is going to retreat.

Bumpity bump.