WI Smallpox was a New World disease
- Thread starter Shiva
- Start date
twovultures
Donor
It's not likely. While there are variola viruses in the New World, the lower population density in the Western Hemisphere kept them from having opportunities to jump to people or to spread if they ever did. In the meantime, the viruses in the Old World have had a lot more time to evolve to infect humans, and have much higher and denser human populations to work with.
Given that poxviruses are very long lived, it's possible that one could spread to Greenland or Iceland during the Norse contact despite the length of time it took to sail to 'Vinland' from those colonies. If it doesn't jump there, it will probably reach the Old World during the Early Modern era during the early 16th century, creating another mass death. Combined with the printing press, this will cause massive social changes, as the population loss changes social structures and the trauma causes people to lose faith in their social and spiritual authorities.
Eurasia still has plenty of nasty diseases such as measles and malaria which will still devastate the Native Americans, so while the die-off is more equalized, it's not like the Native Americans will leave this one unscathed.
Given that poxviruses are very long lived, it's possible that one could spread to Greenland or Iceland during the Norse contact despite the length of time it took to sail to 'Vinland' from those colonies. If it doesn't jump there, it will probably reach the Old World during the Early Modern era during the early 16th century, creating another mass death. Combined with the printing press, this will cause massive social changes, as the population loss changes social structures and the trauma causes people to lose faith in their social and spiritual authorities.
Eurasia still has plenty of nasty diseases such as measles and malaria which will still devastate the Native Americans, so while the die-off is more equalized, it's not like the Native Americans will leave this one unscathed.
Smallpox is theorized to have mutated and jumped from domesticated cattle to humans. For your scenario I would suggest either making up a different but no less deadly disease, or else going with an American Domesticates timeline. Keep in mind that one of the main reasons that far more diseases spread from Eurasia to the Americas rather than the other way around was that not only did Eurasia/Africa have a much larger population, but also all the Eurasian domestic animals served as a disease reservoir that could frequently cross over to humans. Many if not the majority of the world's deadliest diseases are now strongly thought to have been zoonotic. Both smallpox and the measles came from cows. Strains of flu are said to have been likely to have originated from swine or domestic fowl multiple times through history.
Most epidemic diseases originated as zoonoses, i.e. came from animals. In particular, most came from domesticated animals, where there was a large amount of contact between man and beast. [No, that's not what I mean, get your mind out of the gutter.
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There's a REASON why the Columbian exchange was so massively weighted against the New World.
Smallpox, or equivalent, is really highly unlikely to get established in the New World unless 1) you have lots of domestic livestock for a millennium or more and 2) you have large enough populations in easy communication distances of each other to keep the disease going.
Measles, for instance, seems to need 5 million people in easy contact, or it burns out.
There are, of course, exceptions. Several of the tropical diseases (like malaria) have been with humanity since before humans existed (e.g. one strain split when humans and chimps split). Again, the New World doesn't have that million years of co-evolution.
There are many, many threads on this board trying to even the Columbian exchange, and they all boil down to the same basics, really.
]There's a REASON why the Columbian exchange was so massively weighted against the New World.
Smallpox, or equivalent, is really highly unlikely to get established in the New World unless 1) you have lots of domestic livestock for a millennium or more and 2) you have large enough populations in easy communication distances of each other to keep the disease going.
Measles, for instance, seems to need 5 million people in easy contact, or it burns out.
There are, of course, exceptions. Several of the tropical diseases (like malaria) have been with humanity since before humans existed (e.g. one strain split when humans and chimps split). Again, the New World doesn't have that million years of co-evolution.
There are many, many threads on this board trying to even the Columbian exchange, and they all boil down to the same basics, really.
I feel like that might close off the America's to Europe rather than result in another European die off. so the colonists contract the disease? what happens then? even if they leave back for Europe right afterwards they will never reach Europe before dying on their ships. This may give the Native Americans a chance to develop a resistance to the European diseases however.
Maur
Banned
All it takes is to disease to appear in Europe, and from then on contact is not needed. The disease could make the journey in infected person or on animal or something else, or have long incubation time or cause death only after some time.
Driftless
Donor
What about tick borne diseases, such as Spotted Fever & Lyme disease? Sailors or mice returning from North America carrying ticks or their eggs. Those diseases are readily treated with antibiotics, but dangerous without treatment.
Less likely but possible, Encephalitis carrying mosquitos are carried back to Europe from North America.
Less likely but possible, Encephalitis carrying mosquitos are carried back to Europe from North America.
MalcontentRex
Banned
It would not be as catastrophic to Europeans as it was to Native Americans because Europeans had more meat in their diets.
twovultures
Donor
...whut. How in Nurgle's name does that make a difference?
As for the cowpox=smallpox theory, it's not necessarily true. Rodent-borne variola viruses have been named as the precursors of human smallpox. So you don't necessarily need livestock for the disease to jump to humans, but you do need different demographics for the diseases to really take root. That, and time-which the New World diseases had a lot less of than the Old World diseases.
Maur
Banned
That reminds me of the epidemics that killed most of Mexico populations, which according to recent research were not European diseases, but native one blood fever that had rats as carriers. And unpronouncenable name starting with C and endingwith i