Let's say that for some reason, mankind cannot get the atomic bomb to work. Many nations try, but never succeed. There is just some unknown technological hurdle that cannot be overcome. So, how will this change the post-WWII world?
Here is the obvious:
- The Allies will have to invade the main Japanese islands to end the war, possibly dragging the war into mid-1946 and resulting in more Soviet involvement;
- No nuclear energy
What else will be different? This can cover anything from military to political to even medical consequences.
Well, physics is physics and these particles can not hide. That said, the generation of WWII nuclear weapons reflected immense cost to the powers that created them and the absolute most advanced computers available. But let's explore the situation as we can.
The USA had key help from the UK in calculating the amount of Uranium required for a fissionable device. Suppose that the UK makes the same error--so a nuclear weapon appears to be impossible to create.
It is very possible that without the Manhattan project, atomic weapons get delayed 20 years, where it is a major project (as opposed to a Wonder of the World style initiative). I'll explore that scenario.
Japan probably surrenders by the end of 1945. Korea goes Soviet; Mao gains more of China, but I don't think the Soviets land in Hokkaido. Japan surrenders given those losses and as social outcry begins to emerge within Japan itself. The Japanese people are still people, and no people on earth will allow themselves to starve. Japan can't stop the famine caused by US interdiction of food transport by any other means--perhaps this ends the myth of Japanese Will, or perhaps it even ends the Chrysanthemum throne, but hungry people will do many less noble things than surrender to eat.
In Europe, no atomic bomb means that Western Europe will need to retain military forces equal to stand against the Soviet Union. A slow standing down in Europe begins, but the death of Stalin is the first opportunity for many unhappy communist vassals to break free of Moscow. Still, short of the Soviets rolling through the Fulda Gap or attacking democratic nations, the world splits into democratic and communist spheres. Korea is entirely Soviet; Cuba completely American.
That said, war fatigue doesn't last forever, and the Soviets and Americans probably blunder into a shooting war by 1965.
This is exactly the sort of situation that causes gigantic investments in unorthodox weapons. The Atomic Bomb's secrets can no longer hide when the transistor is powering primitive computers.
