Earliest a European Power could sail to China?

I've been wondering; with the seafaring capabilities of, for example, the Genoese, Venetians, etc., how far could Europeans have sailed in the late 1200s? 1300s? Could a European adventurer, for whatever reason, have sailed to China earlier than the Portuguese did OTL?

I mean, I realise that at this time the Silk Road was open for business and European traders could do their work via Constantinople, but for argument's sake let's just assume otherwise. Could a journey south via the Cape of Good Hope have been successful before the Portuguese did it?

Whats our POD? There are European powers that could have had a hold on Egypt, which would give them quite the short cut.

Emperor-of-New-Zealand said:

I've been wondering; with the seafaring capabilities of, for example, the Genoese, Venetians, etc., how far could Europeans have sailed in the late 1200s? 1300s? Could a European adventurer, for whatever reason, have sailed to China earlier than the Portuguese did OTL?

I mean, I realise that at this time the Silk Road was open for business and European traders could do their work via Constantinople, but for argument's sake let's just assume otherwise. Could a journey south via the Cape of Good Hope have been successful before the Portuguese did it?

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Ship building was making huge advances at about that time. Going around the Cape is not for the timid, even in 1500s ships.

Without a PoD that massively improves shipbuilding earlier, your best bet is likely to have the Crusader States hold on (ha, ha, I know) and hold a significant port on the Arabian sea or the Red Sea. Then have them engage in seasonal (monsoon based) trade in the Indian Ocean, and then from a base in India, expand east, setting up another base near Singapore, and from THERE head north to China.

If they managed all this, OTL's Indonesia might end up partly Christian, as, IIRC, the Arabs were only reaching there about the same time.

Even so, you probably don't get to China until ~1250 or 1300.

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On further research, conversion to Islam was only starting to happen by then, although traders had been there for a while.

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On further thought, yet, a long lasting Crusader polity is only going to work if it engages the locals, and ceases to be purely 'European'. By the time you get to India, Singapore, and then China, the traders arriving in China may self-identify as 'Ferengi' and be Roman Catholic, but there won't be hardly anyone a Brit or a German (say) would call 'European'.

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I'm using 'Singapore' as a convenient shorthand for a trade port in the Straits area, whether it be on a small island, in Sumatra or the Malaya peninsula.

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Sigh. Just noticed the OP called for a 'European Power' to reach China. Oops. Ah. OK, maybe Venice takes over the trade route, in exchange for military supplies for said Crusader state? ???

DominusNovus said:

Whats our POD? There are European powers that could have had a hold on Egypt, which would give them quite the short cut.

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There doesn't really need to be a specific POD; I'm not writing a timeline, just positing a question. As for the OP, Venice/Genoa were just examples of two European nations with a maritime history - there's a lot of time to cover 'before' the Portuguese went to China. Could it have happened any earlier at all?

I have no aversion to Crusader States.

The Romans

The Roman Empire probably had the manpower and knowhow to build a canal between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea; being able to avoid the Cape should compensate for their less sturdy ships, though I don't know how well the monsoon winds were charted at the time.

The Europeans had a port on the Red Sea, they regularly sailed to India, if they wanted to they could probably make it to China.

If you get a crusader state that lasts long enough, with consistent enough access to the Red Sea, then you could see it fairly early, during the Middle Ages.

I'd say the most likely scenario that could work would be a Fourth Crusade that actually goes to the target of Egypt and its successful there. Venice was painfully heavily invested in the Crusade, and had rights to a large share of whatever was won in the campaign. That would give them several ports within Egypt, likely on both the Mediterranean and Red Sea coast, and they almost certainly would look to expand their trade beyond there.