WI Stephen Harper Won The 2004 Canadian Election
- Thread starter Pericles
- Start date
If Harper wins a minority in '04 then I doubt too much changes on his side. The Liberals will see a lot of their frontbench wiped out. Iggy will never leave Harvard, Rae isn't a Liberal yet and Dion had just been fired from Cabinet. No idea who the Liberal leader would be.
I think that Martin taking the reigns of government only to immediately lose it would discredit his camp. So I imagine those standing for the leadership would be Chrétien loyalists and cabinet ministers... which is not a bad bench to pull from. Possibly contenders would be Allan Rock, Frank McKenna, Brian Tobin, Martin Cauchon and John Manley... maybe even Dion too, though I don't think he could win here.
TinyTartar
Banned
11 years is a long time. Harper would probably would not be PM past 2013 at the latest.
The Conservatives would have born the full brunt of the recession and had to have called for an election sometime soon within memory of it. That might mean one term defeat.
Maybe, maybe not. If they are, and got a majority or two, the next election would be see them back in opposition. Otherwise, Kenney or whoever succeeded Harper would be champing at the bit for the chance to chuck the (most likely Liberal) government out.
1. He'd be great for a Liberal Party that was expecting to spend multiple terms in opposition. But he was a shitty justice minister and he'd be a terrible PM.
2. Probably wouldn't be bad either as leader or as PM. A Blue Liberal who be able to pull votes away from the Tories. His main drawback is that no premier has ever held the equivalent federal office.
3. Has the drawbacks of McKenna but lacks the ability to pull votes away from the Tories. Would probably be a good caretaker, but wouldn't win the election.
4. Too closely connected to and thus would be pounded by AdScam. He'd be a walking, talking election ad from both the Bloc and the Tories.
5. The best of the lot, one of the 'Best Prime Ministers we never had'. A respected Blue Liberal who could win Canada wide.
6. Look at his OTL performance for how he'd perform TTL.
Though I do have to agree that Martin is toast. Going from being 'the guy who'll win 200 seats' to 'loser' in six months would see him out on his ass immediately.
Chretien's faction of the Liberal Party would have to contend with a government eagerly bashing them with AdScam at every opportunity. The Tories would be all for letting Gomery finish his inquiry, and would likely call for a criminal investigation of those involved in the affair. This may or may not lead to charges, and certainly would still be in the news whenever the next election is called. And it wouldn't just be Tories attacks that would need to be fended off: Both of the other opposition parties would be quite enthusiastic in their own attacks on the recently dethroned Liberals, as they'd both stand to benefit greatly.
Also, the politics of the last decade would be interesting, even more so than they were OTL. Just look at the last two years that Martin held power, and think of what happened. What was enacted into law? What wasn't? And how much of that would be switched were Harper the one running the show instead? IMO we'd be better off, but other may think differently.
I should clarify that I meant it's "not a bad bench to pull from" in that there would be several high-profile and experienced candidates, not that they're all excellent potential prime ministers. Most of them probably aren't!
I wouldn't count Rock out, though. In the 2003 leadership election, he was out-polling and out-fundrasing Manley before he dropped out, so he's certainly got a base.
Ultimately, though, I think Manley would get the nod. He's a Chrétien loyalist who's nevertheless on the centre-right wing of the party, so he's probably an acceptable choice to both Chrétien and Martin camps. His experience, in several big portfolios, also really helps him versus, say, Tobin or Dion.
Oh, this is an interesting development I hadn't considered. Harper definitely wouldn't have legalised same-sex marriage in 2004. Since public opinion was in favour of it, and provincial courts were ruling in favour of it, I wonder if this could become an election issue?
I wouldn't count Rock out, though. In the 2003 leadership election, he was out-polling and out-fundrasing Manley before he dropped out, so he's certainly got a base.
Ultimately, though, I think Manley would get the nod. He's a Chrétien loyalist who's nevertheless on the centre-right wing of the party, so he's probably an acceptable choice to both Chrétien and Martin camps. His experience, in several big portfolios, also really helps him versus, say, Tobin or Dion.
Oh, this is an interesting development I hadn't considered. Harper definitely wouldn't have legalised same-sex marriage in 2004. Since public opinion was in favour of it, and provincial courts were ruling in favour of it, I wonder if this could become an election issue?