WI: Hoare-Laval Pact accepted.

WeissRaben

Let's say that Mussolini is a bit more nervous about Abyssinia. OTL, Benny was not against cutting it short, because it was being harder than expected; let's push just a bit more on that button, not enough to change the international opinion about the war, but enough for the Duce to feel more pressured. Or maybe De Bono does a bit /better/, and by December his opinion is worth a bit more.

Then Hoare and Laval put a certain piece of paper in front of him: OTL, he liked what he saw but he thought he could wait and see how the situation developed. Here, instead, he doesn't. He sees the best occasion to end the war quickly, De Bono agrees and, on impulse, accepts.

What happens now?

PS: this would leave Badoglio out of the war, which helps making it "cleaner" - no gas used, for example.
 

WeissRaben

Bump? I'm mostly interested in the effects in Britain and France, as I know little about the internal politics of both. OTL points out that it would be a scandal, and a huge one; but what would really happen? Would they retract the deal, even after the proposal was accepted and signed? Would they try to follow it through as cleanly as possible? Something else entirely?
 

lukedalton

WeissRaben said:
Bump? I'm mostly interested in the effects in Britain and France, as I know little about the internal politics of both. OTL points out that it would be a scandal, and a huge one; but what would really happen? Would they retract the deal, even after the proposal was accepted and signed? Would they try to follow it through as cleanly as possible? Something else entirely?
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Once accepted they can spin that peace has been re-enstablished and protected and frankly it's diplomatically hard retreat from it and Hoare have 50/50 possibility to remain Foreign Minister and this can have repercussion over the British rearmament program as it will not be First Lord of Admiralty.
Same for Laval, the success of the Pact mean that he will not resign from his post and will continue a politic of contaiment of Germany
 

Edwardx

Well for one it would mean better relations with Italy than OTL and it may prevent Mussolini from feeling that Germany is the best option for an alliance and continues to support Austrian independence.

In the long run WW2 may start sooner over Austria where Mussolini tries to fend off Hitler, he will most likely fail being forced back into Venetia. Britain and France will demand Hitler pulls out of Austria from the start of the war but when the Germans enter Italy they would become more hostile and may declare an ultimatum to Hitler to leave. Hitler will refuse to leave causing WW2. Due to the German Army not being up to full power at the time as they will lack the resources they gained from Austria and Czechoslovakia the Germans would in my view do poorly and at the most reach the Po river in the first year while the border with France stays static due to Germany being unable to launch a Blitzkrieg. In terms of Alliances Yugoslavia may join on the side of Germany to reclaim the land Mussolini demanded from them and Albania which was an Italian puppet. The war drags on for a few years before Hitler gets replaced (i.e. shot), Mussolini survives like Franco and is able to claim Dalmatia from Yugoslavia while having Austria set up as a friendly state.

But this is just my view.
 

Magnum

Edwardx said:
Well for one it would mean better relations with Italy than OTL and it may prevent Mussolini from feeling that Germany is the best option for an alliance and continues to support Austrian independence.

In the long run WW2 may start sooner over Austria where Mussolini tries to fend off Hitler, he will most likely fail being forced back into Venetia. Britain and France will demand Hitler pulls out of Austria from the start of the war but when the Germans enter Italy they would become more hostile and may declare an ultimatum to Hitler to leave. Hitler will refuse to leave causing WW2. Due to the German Army not being up to full power at the time as they will lack the resources they gained from Austria and Czechoslovakia the Germans would in my view do poorly and at the most reach the Po river in the first year while the border with France stays static due to Germany being unable to launch a Blitzkrieg. In terms of Alliances Yugoslavia may join on the side of Germany to reclaim the land Mussolini demanded from them and Albania which was an Italian puppet. The war drags on for a few years before Hitler gets replaced (i.e. shot), Mussolini survives like Franco and is able to claim Dalmatia from Yugoslavia while having Austria set up as a friendly state.

But this is just my view.
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Austria had a good chance of fending off the German attack by itself OTL, as Germany's army was still a joke at this stage. If Benny makes a point about defending Austria, Hitler will back down.
 

euromellows

Magnum said:
Austria had a good chance of fending off the German attack by itself OTL, as Germany's army was still a joke at this stage. If Benny makes a point about defending Austria, Hitler will back down.
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I agree. Hitler is not a complete fool, and neither are the Wehrmacht: if the odds are stacked too much against Germany at this stage, they won't proceed.
 
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