Polish-Saxon Crisis leads to War

oofo · Oct 25, 2014

If Napoleon does not escape from his exile on Elba and the Polish-Saxon Crisis escalated into war, what would be the most likely outcome?

Things like which territories would go to who and butterflies. (Depending on which side wins)

I haven't seen this discussed much but hopefully I can get some answers

oofo · Oct 26, 2014

Apparently this isn't a very interesting topic

oofo · Oct 28, 2014

One more bump to see if I can get some replies.

Mixxer5 · Oct 28, 2014

I don't think it'd escalate. Great Britain bluffed with their support for Poland, wanting to weaken Russia. And eventual war looks bad for GB. It'd most likely be GB+ Prussia vs. Russia and Austria. And Prussia had been battered really badly (especially considering its size) during Napoleon Era. So it's not the best deal.

oofo · Oct 28, 2014

Mixxer5 said:
I don't think it'd escalate. Great Britain bluffed with their support for Poland, wanting to weaken Russia. And eventual war looks bad for GB. It'd most likely be GB+ Prussia vs. Russia and Austria. And Prussia had been battered really badly (especially considering its size) during Napoleon Era. So it's not the best deal.

Why would Great Britain side with Prussia? IOTL Prussia and Russia were on the same side with GB, Austria, and France opposing them. Also remember that the war may be short as all of the powers' armies were in France at the time (I think).

Mixxer5 · Oct 28, 2014

oofo said:
Why would Great Britain side with Prussia? IOTL Prussia and Russia were on the same side with GB, Austria, and France opposing them. Also remember that the war may be short as all of the powers' armies were in France at the time (I think).

That's why GB has no business to start war- in whatever configuration. There is no reason to start war they would surely lose.

About Prussia siding with GB- they were quite heavily dependent on GB subsidies (which Russia can't really pay). Although I'm not going to argue about it- it's still important that GB doesn't have too big chances- France was (almost) on its knees, Austria is... Austria and GB while fielding biggest army until Ist WW hardly is land superpower.

oofo · Oct 28, 2014

Mixxer5 said:
That's why GB has no business to start war- in whatever configuration. There is no reason to start war they would surely lose.

About Prussia siding with GB- they were quite heavily dependent on GB subsidies (which Russia can't really pay). Although I'm not going to argue about it- it's still important that GB doesn't have too big chances- France was (almost) on its knees, Austria is... Austria and GB while fielding biggest army until Ist WW hardly is land superpower.

But if GB doesn't go to war, Russia and Prussia could gain a lot of power in Europe. Prussia and Russia would win any war IMO, Russia had the largest army on the field and like you said, GB was weak.

Janprimus · Oct 28, 2014

oofo said:
But if GB doesn't go to war, Russia and Prussia could gain a lot of power in Europe. Prussia and Russia would win any war IMO, Russia had the largest army on the field and like you said, GB was weak.

By the time of that crisis, no one really wanted a war.

Austria, UK and France could easily match Russia and Prussia, nor would I underestimate Austria. Not to mention that no one wanted the other to dominate including their own allies. For instance Russia and Prussia weren't too thrilled about the other being too powerful too. Hence the eventual OTL compromise.