Part 3
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May 16, 2008
FOXnews.com
Cheney draws “red lines” in televised address
In his address, the President warned of the gathering threat posed by Iran.
The President said that “it has also become clear that we face an escalating danger from Shia extremists who are just as hostile to America, and are also determined to dominate the Middle East. Many are known to take direction from the regime in Iran, which is funding and arming terrorists like Hezbollah -- a group second only to al Qaeda in the American lives it has taken.” [1]
The President said “Hezbollah terrorists, with support from Syria and Iran, sowed conflict in the region and are seeking to undermine Lebanon's legitimately elected government... In Iraq, al Qaeda and other Sunni extremists blew up one of the most sacred places in Shia Islam -- the Golden Mosque of Samarra. This atrocity, directed at a Muslim house of prayer, was designed to provoke retaliation from Iraqi Shia -- and it succeeded. Radical Shia elements, some of whom receive support from Iran, formed death squads. The result was a tragic escalation of sectarian rage and reprisal that continues to this day.” [1]
In his speech, President Cheney said that the campaign will involve a limited offensive that is directed against nuclear sites. Cheney said that there will be no attempt to remove the current regime from power if Iran does not retaliate against the US. The President also stated that actions such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, attacking US allies (such as Israel and countries on the Arabian Peninsula), attacking American soldiers, launching terrorist attacks, or sinking civilian ships in the Persian Gulf, will be met with “devastating military action.”
President Cheney assured the public that airstrikes against Iranian nuclear targets will be “sufficient” and that no ground troops will be used in this operation. Yet, the American public is skeptical. Polls suggest that about 2/3 of Americans are opposed to a military offensive involving ground troops in Iran, but 59% support the use of limited airstrikes.
[1] Taken verbatim from Bush’s 2007 State of the Union speech OTL.
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May 17, 2008
Senate approves ‘use of force’ against Iran
The bill, officially called the Joint Resolution to Authorize the Use of United States Armed Forces Against Iran [1], narrowly passed the Senate, 69-31. The war bill gives the government to act in support of Israel’s efforts to disarm Iran. The bill leaves open the possibility of a ground invasion, though the President denies this. “Iran is not Iraq. We seek only to remove the threat of nuclear attack from Iran. As it stands, there will be only a limited ground force.”
The bill stated (in part) that “the United States has a vital national interest in, and unbreakable commitment to, ensuring the existence, survival, and security of the State of Israel, and reaffirms United States support for Israel’s right to self-defense; and urges that, if the Government of Israel is compelled to take military action [3] in self-defense, the United States Government should stand with Israel and provide diplomatic, military, and economic support to the Government of Israel in its defense of its territory, people, and existence.” [4]
Republican support of the bill was unanimous. Democrats, however, were split. One of the dissenting voices was Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), who voted no on the bill. Others, like Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) voted yes on the measure. Lieberman said that if the U.S. does not act against Iran, “they'll take that as a sign of weakness on our part and we will pay for it in Iraq and throughout the region and ultimately right here at home.” [5] The bill was also supported by Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) who voted for the bill “to protect Israeli and American security.”
Gallup poll showed that 61% of Americans support some form of military action in Iran. However, only 39% indicated that they support the use of US ground troops.
[1] Based on the OTL Joint Resolution to Authorize the Use of United States Armed Forces Against Iraq
[2] The vote was as follows:
House of Representatives:
Republican: 200 Yea, 3 Nay, 2 Nonvoting
Democratic: 61 Yea, 171 Nay, 3 Nonvoting
Total: 261 Yea, 174 Nay, 5 Nonvoting
Senate:
Republican 49 Yea, 0 Nay
Democratic 16 Yea, 33 Nay, 1 Nonvoting
Independent 0 Yea, 1 Nay
Total: 65 Yea, 34 Nay, 1 Nonvoting
Note that these figures are similar to those of the Iraq War resolution.
[3] Note that, at this point, Israel’s strike is not considered “military action” by the US. The bill is intended to show support for Israel’s actions taken in self-defense from an Iranian attack.
[4] Taken verbatim from a bill passed in OTL 2013 called “S.Res.65 - A resolution strongly supporting the full implementation of United States and international sanctions on Iran and urging the President to continue to strengthen enforcement of sanctions legislation.”
[5] Lieberman said this OTL in an interview with Bob Schieffer in 2007.
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May 18, 2008:
UN vote urges “restraint” in Iran conflict [1]
The U.N. Security Council expressed “concern” over the growing crisis in the Middle East and urged for “a peaceful resolution” between Iran, Israel, and the United States.
Vice President McCain said that he was “disappointed” by the lack of support for military action from the UN, and added that this sends “the wrong message” to Iran. He further added that Iran should take the President’s warnings seriously. “The Iranians think that we’re bluffing. It’s time we show them we’re not.”
[1] Based on a similar vote held before the war in Iraq.
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May 18, 2008
US launches strikes against Iranian nuclear targets
The US has launched Operation Darting Fog [1], an aerial campaign against Iranian nuclear targets. Analysts have identified four likely targets: the uranium-enrichment facilities at Natanz (previously targeted by Israeli jets) and Fordow, as well as the heavy-water reactor in Arak, and the uranium conversion plant at Isfahan. Other possible targets include the nuclear power plant at Bushehr, a warhead production facility in Parchin, and strategically important missile bases in Tabriz and near Khorramabad.
[1] Hence my user name. It’s based off of similar names for US military operations like Operation Flaming Dart, Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation Enduring Freedom, etc. ATL, comedians will mock it for being a spoonerism for “farting dog”.
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May 18, 2008
BREAKING NEWS: Fordow nuclear facility remains intact after ‘bunker-busters’
At 9:58 EDT, it is reported the Fordow nuclear facility has been hit by American bombs. The Fordow facility is located under hundreds of feet of rock, which makes it impenetrable to smaller bombs. Even after dropping three bombs on the facility, there was no visible damage to anything but the mountain.
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May 19, 2008
Arak heavy-water facility destroyed
Earlier this morning in Iran, U.S. bombers dropped several 15-ton Big BLU bunker-buster bombs on the underground lab. The facility was one of the key sites in Iran’s nuclear program. The site is being monitored for radioactive contamination.
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May 19, 2008
Iran claims nuclear pollution “worse than Chernobyl”
The Iranian government is claiming that massive amounts of radiation were released into the atmosphere after American and Israeli bombing of the nuclear facilities at Fordow and Arak. Iranian officials claim that several thousand civilians have been exposed to lethal doses of radiation.
The attacks have been met with condemnation by some members of the UN, including Russia and China, who expressed concern for the civilians of Iran.
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May 19, 2008
Ten ships severely damaged by Iranian missile and speedboat attacks [1]
Ten ships, including three supertankers, were hit by Iranian attacks yesterday. Six of the ships were hit by long-range missiles launched by Iran. The other four tankers were apparently hit in a speedboat attack. The speedboats are said to have been carrying missiles, machine guns, and rocket-propelled grenades. The tankers were carrying oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. Although several ships have been hit, only three of the smaller vessels were sunk. The remaining ships, however, are too heavily damaged to carry oil.
On this news, oil prices soared today to $192 a barrel. The oil markets are concerned that ship owners and captains may refuse to send their ships through the Strait because they are afraid of being attacked.
These missile and speedboat attacks have caused alarm in the shipping community. However, some ship owners, captains and crews may be willing to take the risk now that oil prices have increased.
This is not the first time that tankers have been targeted in the Persian Gulf. During the Iran-Iraq War, the so-called “Tanker War” resulted in the sinking of several large oil tankers. Over the course of the Tanker War, insurance claims reached a total of 2 billion dollars, resulting in massive losses for insurers. Lloyd’s of London has indicated that it will not let history repeat itself and has released a statement to the effect that they will refuse to compensate losses incurred by tankers damaged in the Persian Gulf.
What motivated Iran to attack oil tankers? According to oil industry analysts, Iran is targeting tankers in an attempt to pressure the United States into ending its bombing campaign of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. By disrupting the oil market, the Iranians hope to show they can show that they are still strong despite the recent bombing.
President Cheney said that Iran’s attempt to disrupt world oil markets will not dissuade the United States from removing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and that the bombings would continue. He announced that in the event of a disruption of oil supplies, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be opened. In addition, he said that tankers traveling through the Gulf will be escorted by US navy ships.
[1] The content of this post is based on a report by the Strauss Center analyzing Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil shipping.
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May 20, 2008
American aircraft carrier struck in Iranian attack, 57 dead [1]
A US aircraft carrier and several support vessels were attacked in a coordinated assault by Iran. The aircraft carrier, known as the USS John C. Stennis, was attacked by an Iranian Shahab missile. The missiles hit the starboard side of the ship and exploded, killing 17 crew members and injuring 23 others. The explosion created a 20-foot-wide hole in ship’s hull, but did not sink it [1]. The ship was believed to have been escorting an oil tanker through the Persian Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition to the attack on the Stennis, three support vessels accompanying the aircraft carrier were hit in suicide attacks by small craft operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Another 40 crew members are believed to have been killed in those attacks.
On news of the attack, oil prices are now trading at $240 a barrel. Gasoline prices have also spiked, with most stations reporting prices upwards of $6 per gallon.
[1] Similar to the USS Stark Incident in 1987.
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May 21, 2008
Obama drops out of race
Senator Barack Obama declared that he will be withdrawing from the primary race for the Democratic Party nomination. He did so after receiving weak support from primary voters in the Kentucky and Oregon yesterday. At this point in the race, it would be mathematically impossible for Obama to secure the nomination, even with the support of all of the remaining super-delegates. Obama said that he will endorse Hillary Clinton for the party nomination. He thanked his supporters and announced that he will drop out of the race for the nomination.
Pundits are speculating that Clinton’s hawkish stance on Iran has helped her with voters. After the Stennis attack yesterday, it appears Democratic voters are flocking to support Clinton. Obama’s more conciliatory tone on the Iranian issue may have helped him initially, but hurt him after the Iranian crisis began earlier this month.
[1] OTL, Hillary Clinton withdrew on June 7
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May 21, 2008
Cheney addresses nation after Stennis attack [1]
"Good evening, my fellow Americans. As I speak, American forces are in the early stages of military operations attack on military targets in Iran, in order to free the Iranian people from tyranny and to defend the world against a dangerous regime. Earlier today, the terrorists employed by the Iranian regime launched a cowardly attack against one of our ships, an attack that took dozens of American lives. Much like the attack at Pearl Harbor and the attack on 9/11, this day will live in infamy.
I became President on another tragic day that has come to be known as 5/10. That, of course, was the day that President George W. Bush was assassinated. But unlike then, where a lone assassin’s grenade took the life of our President, a government has conspired to kill American servicemen and women. And the government responsible is that of the nation of Iran.
As I speak to you tonight, attacks are underway to destroy what is left of the Iranian regime’s potential to build a nuclear weapon. American forces have begun striking military targets that the ruthless Iranian regime has used to launch its attacks against America, Israel, and the Gulf States. We are now witnessing the opening stages of what will be a large-scale campaign to destroy that regime and remove it from power.
For many years, the Iranian regime has thumbed its nose at the rest of the world by pursuing a nuclear program. This nuclear program, in the hands of one of the world’s most important sponsors of terrorism, was a terrible threat to the peace and security of the world. Our ally and friend, Israel, reduced this threat by taking pre-emptive action against one of Iran’s nuclear bomb-making sites. When Israel’s ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure proved insufficient, the United States stepped in to complete the task. The world does not seem to care about Israel’s safety, so if we must, the great nations of Israel and the United States will face the Iranian threat alone.
In my address to the nation last week, I warned the Iranian regime that no effort would be made to remove them from power if they did not retaliate. The Iranian regime cannot deny that they were listening to this message. Yet, they have defied my terms by attacking our allies. They think that we will put up with it, but we will prove them wrong. We are not afraid to fight them.
We waited until now to remove the regime that currently controls Iran. In retrospect, that was a grave mistake. But, as Americans, we wanted to give the Iranian regime one last chance to act peacefully. They squandered that chance. The Iranian regime mistook our mercy for cowardice. While we waited, Iran and its proxies in Lebanon have terrorized the citizens of Israel. Most of those maimed and murdered were innocent men, women, and children. While we waited, the Iranian regime attacked oil tankers and other civilian vessels in the Persian Gulf. While we waited, 57 members of our military perished this morning in a brazen and cowardly attack. We cannot wait any longer.
The United States has now exhausted every means at our disposal to bring this crisis to a peaceful end. The Iranian regime has refused to negotiate, even when they have been given ample opportunity to engage in diplomatic talks. But that is not all. They think that they can get away with violent actions against America and our allies. We will make it clear to them that we will not back down. The people of the United States and Israel will not live at the mercy of a regime that threatens the world with weapons of mass murder.
Twenty-eight years ago, this regime took power in a brutal way. They held innocent people hostage at our embassy in Tehran, threatening them with death. They have executed women who have been raped, gay people, and Christians. While this regime claims to be Islamic, they have brutally murdered hundreds of thousands their fellow Muslims in Iraq. They have tortured and executed several members of Jundallah, a resistance group that is fighting for the rights of Sunnis in Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which has been labeled a terrorist organization [2], is the branch of the Iranian military dedicated to implementing the Iranian regime’s radical agenda by brutal force. The Revolutionary Guard supports terrorists in Lebanon and has provided Iraqi insurgents with weapons used against our troops there.
The band of terrorists that took innocent Americans hostage 28 years ago must be removed from power. We will not allow the Iranian regime to hold Americans hostage for a second time. This illegitimate government that does not represent the Iranian people will be defeated. The Iranian people will again be free. It is my hope that Iran will again be a peaceful and cooperative nation, enhancing the security and stability of the Gulf.
Our soldiers will face an enemy with no morality or regard for military conventions. Our men and women in uniform will show our enemies and the people of Iran that Americans believe in the dignity of human life. The Iranian people we liberate will see our honor and decency. Our operations will be designed to keep innocent civilians from being harmed; unlike the Iranian regime, which does not care if it puts its own people in harm’s way.
Some of you may be asking why we must act now. Perhaps there is a diplomatic solution to the current situation. I will repeat what President Bush said: There is no negotiating with terrorists. So we cannot stand idly by as the Iranian regime conducts acts of terror such as we saw with the attack on the Stennis today. Others have said that we could keep dropping bombs, but that we should leave the Iranian regime in power. If we continue to drop bombs on Iranian military targets, but we leave the regime in place, Iran will simply rebuild its nuclear program. That is why we must have regime change in Iran. It is my hope that the Iranian people can convince their rulers to step down peacefully.
We have great respect for the people of Iran and their culture and their religion. We have no ill will against them. Our problem with Iran is with its government. Their government is illegitimate; it is made up of cabal of criminals who took power violently. The people of Iran are oppressed by this Islamofascist regime, which actively represses their desire for freedom and democratic government. I predict this day will be seen as an important moment in the long history of Iran. It will be one of the last under tyranny and the first day in their history as a free people.
On the homefront, I ask for help from everyday Americans in this effort. First, we want Americans to sign up and join the effort to remove the Iranian regime from power. Second, we need to show a united front against the Iranian regime. Expressions of opposition to the efforts underway to remove the Iranian regime, while guaranteed by the Constitution, send a mixed message to our enemies. We want Americans who support action against Iran, who might otherwise stay silent, to speak up. Hold marches, talk with your friends and family, and call your Representatives and Senators to express your support of our military. We must also be on guard against the Iranian regime’s dirty tactics, including the use of proxies like Hezbollah, to attack Israel. No doubt Iranian-backed sleeper cells wish to cause harm to Americans here and abroad. We must be vigilant against them.
It is greatly distressing to send our sons and daughters into harm’s way. But I have great confidence in them. Our military is the best in the world; a magnificently trained, highly motivated force designed to defend us from evil. Our troops know the reasons why they're in the Middle East fighting terrorism. They are defending our freedom. They are bringing freedom to others. And they will prevail.
To the members of our military, I assure you that your families are praying for you. Americans are praying for your safety. While the road ahead is difficult, I have great confidence in our men and women in uniform. For their sake, I hope that they will return home soon.
Our nation’s finest will meet the greatest threat we have faced since Nazi Germany. The safety of our nation and the world depends on our success. We will accept nothing less than victory. We will achieve victory at any cost.
Good night, and may God bless America.
[1] This speech is based heavily off of Bush’s Iraq invasion speech and Bush Sr.’s Persian Gulf speech. It’s likely that they all had the same speech writers.
[2] Labeled as a terrorist organization by Congress in 2006 (see earlier post).
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May 23, 2008
US strikes Iranian military by air, sea
The American military is hunting for Iranian submarines and surface fleet. Several Iranian ships have already been sunk in the past 24 hours. The US has also been able to strike down a dozen Iranian jet aircraft.
In other news, American bombers struck the Imam Ali Missile Base near Khorramabad. It is believed that many of the missiles that Iran is currently launching over the Persian Gulf were launched from this missile base. Two chemical-production plants have also been targeted.
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May 24, 2008
FOXnews.com
Invasion of Iran Begins [1]
Today, the first boots on the ground set foot on Iranian soil. They crossed over the border from Iraq in this initial stage of invasion. Other soldiers are being sent from American bases on the Arabian Peninsula and will land on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf.
The military has stated that it will do everything it can to avoid population centers, though the Iranians are rumored to have deliberately placed high-value sites in civilian areas so that they will not be destroyed. The latest smart weapons will be used to destroy Iran’s communications centers and command and control facilities. Infrastructure will be targeted to prevent the movement of Iranian troops. Bridges, roads, and power plants have a bomb with their name on it.
Meanwhile, the American people are showing their support for our troops by flying flags and holding “support the troops” marches.
Some Americans, however, have expressed opposition to the war, despite the overwhelming threat posed by Iran. Military experts are concerned about the effect this will have on troop morale. In the Vietnam War, many have attributed the loss of the war to the lack of support of the American people. Hopefully, we will not repeat the same mistakes.
[1] I’m fully aware that there would be strong opposition from some Americans to a third Middle Eastern war, but I think that in a crisis, most Americans would support a war (much like 9/11).
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May 25, 2008
Iran “a tougher nut to crack”, says McCain
One day after the US invades Iran, the Gulf has become a warzone. Iranian and American missiles fly overhead constantly. While the US has been successful in intercepting Iranian missiles, a few missiles still get through. An Iranian missile struck US base in Musandam, with 22 reported dead.
The US has found itself under attack by the Iranian air force. In “dogfight” style attacks not seen since World War II, the US is showing its air superiority. The Iranian air force is made up of antiquated jets such as the F4 Phantom and F14 Tomcat, which are proving to be no match for the American military. The US is reported to have downed 34 Iranian jets. However, despite their disadvantages, the Iranians have still managed to down three American aircraft.
Vice President McCain said he is confident that the Administration can achieve its policy goals in Iran with a bombing campaign, but that “more action may need to be taken than we anticipated”. He added that Iran is a “tougher nut to crack” than was originally thought and that “a new strategy may be needed” to address the Iranian offensive.
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Wall Street Journal
May 25, 2008
Oil tops $400 a barrel
Oil prices spiked to more than $400 per barrel yesterday after recent fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, before closing at $384. Today, gas stations across the country are beginning to report shortages. This shortage has occurred because the refineries are cutting back on their refining of crude oil in anticipation of a shortfall. Drivers face long lines at the pumps. They are running to gas stations to fill up over fears that the gas will run out. Many drivers have reported paying up to $11 a gallon.
The pain at the pump is also being felt on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by more than 500 points yesterday, which is the culmination of a week that has seen the index plummet by 1200 points.
What caused this oil crisis? After the sinking of several tankers, there has been a halt on all oil tankers passing through the Strait. This is because the tanker companies have been warned by their insurers that they will not be covered in the event of a sinking in the war zone. Rather than face the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars between the cost of the oil and the cost of the ships themselves, the tanker companies are keeping all ships presently in the Gulf at their docks on the Arabian Peninsula, and no tankers are allowed to enter the Gulf. As a result, no oil can get out of the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil output is effectively out of reach at the moment.
Some of the oil produced in the Middle East will be sent by pipeline to the Red Sea. However, the carrying capacity of these pipelines is limited, and can only carry a small fraction of production. While the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was opened two days ago, it will take two weeks before that oil reaches the gas pump.
At a gas station outside of Atlanta, we spoke with some of the people waiting in line.
A middle-aged man said “These g-damn Iranians! If I were younger, I’d go over there and fight ‘em myself!” as he stood next to his SUV. “Our boys better beat ‘em right quick.”
His frustration is shared by the American public. According to our own poll [1], 71 percent of Americans support the war in Iran.
In Europe and Japan, who rely even more heavily on Middle Eastern oil than the US, the situation is even more dire. Many gas stations have closed due to the lack of supply. In Italy, gasoline is reported to be selling at more than 5 Euros per liter ($23 per gallon).
[1] Admittedly WSJ is a right-wing publication and their polls will be biased in that direction. Even so, ATL Gallup puts the support for war with Iran at approximately 60%.
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