WI: Clinton pulls a Bush, invades North Korea

mlp

Let's say Clinton was only so an expert on Middle Eastern politics and not much else in the world, thus deciding that it be best to remove the North Korean threat when it kicks out the IAEA.
The plan is to have a special ops group destroy Yongbyon and launches missiles against several major garrisons while having the DMZ on high alert. South Korea is not consulted on the matter and is only told after the operation is successful.
This is done early on in his presidency, perhaps 6 months into 1993.
How does this affect global politics? How does this affect future US campaigns, i.e. Somalia? How does China, South Korea, Russia react? How will the North Korean government and citizens react?
All questions and comments are welcome.
 
Alcsentre Calanice

Alcsentre Calanice

Gone Fishin'
I suspect China is going to get involved once American soldiers march into North Korea and threat to reach the Chinese border as in the Korean War.
 

NoOneFamous

zeppelinair said:
Let's say Clinton was only so an expert on Middle Eastern politics and not much else in the world, thus deciding that it be best to remove the North Korean threat when it kicks out the IAEA.
The plan is to have a special ops group destroy Yongbyon and launches missiles against several major garrisons while having the DMZ on high alert. South Korea is not consulted on the matter and is only told after the operation is successful.
This is done early on in his presidency, perhaps 6 months into 1993.
How does this affect global politics? How does this affect future US campaigns, i.e. Somalia? How does China, South Korea, Russia react? How will the North Korean government and citizens react?
All questions and comments are welcome.
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How is he going to get America behind his plans?
 

Download

Are we talking full-on boots on the ground invade here or are we talking softening up the North Korea with cruise missiles and an air campaign?
 

Download

zeppelinair said:
We're just destroying the nuclear test lab.
Click to expand...

The difficulty is destroying just the labs without making the Norks turn their artillery towards Seoul, load up the GB and VX shells, and start firing.

Politically, a few people will protest when the US attacks them, but given it's a nuclear weapons production facility the protests will be minor. Instead the problem will be when the above happens.
 

mlp

Download said:
The difficulty is destroying just the labs without making the Norks turn their artillery towards Seoul, load up the GB and VX shells, and start firing.

Politically, a few people will protest when the US attacks them, but given it's a nuclear weapons production facility the protests will be minor. Instead the problem will be when the above happens.
Click to expand...

The North Koreans were already struggling in 1993:
By 1993, China was supplying North Korea with 77 percent of its fuel imports and 68 percent of its food imports. Thus, North Korea replaced dependence on the Soviet Union with dependence on China – with predictably dire consequences. In 1993, China faced its own grain shortfalls and need for hard currency, and it sharply cut aid to North Korea.[15]
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The North Koreans had no chance against South Korea in 1993. They'd have no idea that the South Koreans weren't aware of the situation, most probable is that they'd stop shitting bricks when the South doesn't start a preemptive attack.
 

Download

zeppelinair said:
The North Koreans were already struggling in 1993:

The North Koreans had no chance against South Korea in 1993. They'd have no idea that the South Koreans weren't aware of the situation, most probable is that they'd stop shitting bricks when the South doesn't start a preemptive attack.
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While they had no chance (and still have no chance), these aren't exactly sound-minded people we're talking abut here.

They might not be able to fight a war for long, but they could do something stupid like break out the chemical weapons, killing a lot of civilians before getting squished by the long dick of the US military.
 

mlp

Download said:
While they had no chance (and still have no chance), these aren't exactly sound-minded people we're talking abut here.

They might not be able to fight a war for long, but they could do something stupid like break out the chemical weapons, killing a lot of civilians before getting squished by the long dick of the US military.
Click to expand...

It's a misconception that people have - NK isn't stupid - or crazy, for that matter. Otherwise they would've fucked up OTL and would be invaded like Iraq or Libya, or be under siege like Syria. Otherwise China would have come in and install a new government without breaking a sweat.

Although, I must say, millions dying due to war sounds a lot better than millions dying because of famine. At least the end game is better for the North Koreans TTL.
 

Onkel Willie

zeppelinair said:
It's a misconception that people have - NK isn't stupid - or crazy, for that matter. Otherwise they would've fucked up OTL and would be invaded like Iraq or Libya, or be under siege like Syria. Otherwise China would have come in and install a new government without breaking a sweat.

Although, I must say, millions dying due to war sounds a lot better than millions dying because of famine. At least the end game is better for the North Koreans TTL.
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In part it's also been luck. If the US had trusted Synghman Rhee enough to give him enough weapons then he'd have invade North Korea instead of the other way around. Secondly, they're also lucky that South Korea has always managed to restrain itself when the Norks provoked them.
 

mlp

Onkel Willie said:
In part it's also been luck. If the US had trusted Synghman Rhee enough to give him enough weapons then he'd have invade North Korea instead of the other way around. Secondly, they're also lucky that South Korea has always managed to restrain itself when the Norks provoked them.
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I'd say it always worked on the general welfare of the country - if you're poorer than the other side, you're more willing to go aggressive. The logic stood for South Korea in 1948 and it stands for South Korea six decades later.
 

zoomar

Arguably, if not for the somewhat unexpected and possibly initially undesired intervention of private citizen Jimmy Carter, Clinton was prepared to go to war with North Korea to eliminate its ability to produce nuclear weapons. The expulsion of inspectors gave him that cover.

The US knows its history, so I doubt this would involve actual boots on the ground in NK, but a massive air campaign aimed at all facilities believed to be involved in the development of nuclear weapons, as well as infrastructure and other facilities (airfields, government buildings, palaces, radars, etc) of military or governing value to the regime.

Who knows if this would have prompted an invasion of South Korea by the North, but if it did as long as the defense of South Korea was limited to defensive air, naval, and ground actions and did not involve US or ROK invasion of the North, I don't think China would intervene...except possibly to take matters regarding their NK puppet into their own hands and occupy/invade the north (ostensibly as a preventative defense against US invasion but more to install a more responsible governing group that was not an embarrassment to them)
 

Emperor Constantine

zeppelinair said:
Let's say Clinton was only so an expert on Middle Eastern politics and not much else in the world, thus deciding that it be best to remove the North Korean threat when it kicks out the IAEA.
The plan is to have a special ops group destroy Yongbyon and launches missiles against several major garrisons while having the DMZ on high alert. South Korea is not consulted on the matter and is only told after the operation is successful.
This is done early on in his presidency, perhaps 6 months into 1993.
How does this affect global politics? How does this affect future US campaigns, i.e. Somalia? How does China, South Korea, Russia react? How will the North Korean government and citizens react?
All questions and comments are welcome.
Click to expand...

While an interesting POD, I doubt anything significant would happen. We'd see the North Koreans throw a massive fit, threaten to invade South Korea put their army on a "war footing", like they always do when the annual US-South Korean training exercises start and some kind of US denial. While the Kim family and its inner circle might be considered batsh#t crazy, the generals of the army are not.

Everyone and their mother knows that if North Korea was to invade the South they could cause a lot of damage and deaths but the regime would ultimately collapse once a full US-South Korean invasion begins. However, the US isn't going to launch any kind of invasion on their own. This operation would be a surgical strike, not unlike the various Israeli airstrikes in the middle east. Unless the North Koreans go "screw it" and starts shelling Seoul this wouldn't lead to war.
 
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