Maybe this should be in ASB because of the radical change it requires in McClellan. Suppose he somehow figures out the real CSA strength opposing him and attacks as hard as he can. Does this win the war and if so how soon is slavery abolished?
McClellan and Peninsular Campaign in ACW
- Thread starter goodguy777
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Anaxagoras
Banned
If he "attacks as hard as he can", he will likely be bloodily repulsed, whether it's Lee or Johnston in command. McClellan was wrong in believing that the Confederates greatly outnumbered him and should have been less cautious than he was, but in truth the North possessed only a small numerical superiority during the Peninsular Campaign than it would in subsequent campaigns. "Pulling a Grant" on the Peninsula during 1862 would not have worked.
If McClellan does win the campaign and capture Richmond, it's likely that the Confederates in Virginia would have collapsed and the war could have been brought to an end before 1862. That means no Emancipation Proclamation, no abolition of slavery, and probably a President George McClellan in 1864.
If McClellan does win the campaign and capture Richmond, it's likely that the Confederates in Virginia would have collapsed and the war could have been brought to an end before 1862. That means no Emancipation Proclamation, no abolition of slavery, and probably a President George McClellan in 1864.
TFSmith121
Banned
Well, unless the rebels simply do not defend the
Well, unless the rebels simply do not defend the Peninsula, I have a hard time seeing the Army of the Potomac under McClellan or any one else succeeding there in 1862; given the realities of the Peninsula's geography (oddly enough, ignored by McClellan when he was advocating for the strategy, but which was rapidly trotted out when the Army stalled).
It is worth remembering that despite the name, the region in question really is not a peninsula, merely that part of mainland Virginia between the York and James rivers; we're not talking an oceanic peninsula like Italy or Korea.
And the York and James are not exactly the Mississippi - the "riverine warfare" possibilities are fairly limited.
Add the Warwick and Chickahominy rivers, which come close to bi-secting the Peninsula, and the flooding and marshland to be expected in spring in Virginia, and the whole concept looks questionable.
Now, consider the commanders in the field: up through Seven Pines, the senior officers are JE Johnston and GB McClellan; both men, setting aside anything else one can say about their abilities, were capable of managing a defensive strategy - so expecting significant results when both were in command and facing each other is sort of Fabian vs. Fabian...
Finally, if the rebels lost Richmond in 1862 - which is a very unlikely result - I don't know that it means the immediate end of the rebellion. I certainly don't see it leading to a surrender; between 1775-83, the US lost at least two temporary capitals.
Although it is a blow to Davis' prestige, he'd probably survive, and it is not like there were not quite a few ambitious men waiting in the wings.
The bigger issue is Virginia's economic and manpower resources, and although those would be significant losses, the reality is even if Richmond falls in the (when? spring? summer? autumn?) of 1862, Virginia is a fairly big state, unless McDowell or Banks or whoever actually succeeds in northern Virginia and the Shenandoah, there's a lot of Virginia that is still "rebel," even if Richmond is not.
All in all, an overland advance, anchored on the Potomac to the east and the Bull Run mountains to the west, with strong detached forces in the Bull Run-Blue Ridge and the Blue Ridge-Shenandoah, would have forced the rebels either to withdraw from northern Virginia or come and fight the US forces in a region farther away from their centers of supply - and would have covered the US capital, thus depriving the rebels from any ability to regain the initiative by "threatening" Washington.
At the heart of things, Lincoln was correct in his approach to Virginia in 1862; McClellan was not.
Best,
Well, unless the rebels simply do not defend the Peninsula, I have a hard time seeing the Army of the Potomac under McClellan or any one else succeeding there in 1862; given the realities of the Peninsula's geography (oddly enough, ignored by McClellan when he was advocating for the strategy, but which was rapidly trotted out when the Army stalled).
It is worth remembering that despite the name, the region in question really is not a peninsula, merely that part of mainland Virginia between the York and James rivers; we're not talking an oceanic peninsula like Italy or Korea.
And the York and James are not exactly the Mississippi - the "riverine warfare" possibilities are fairly limited.
Add the Warwick and Chickahominy rivers, which come close to bi-secting the Peninsula, and the flooding and marshland to be expected in spring in Virginia, and the whole concept looks questionable.
Now, consider the commanders in the field: up through Seven Pines, the senior officers are JE Johnston and GB McClellan; both men, setting aside anything else one can say about their abilities, were capable of managing a defensive strategy - so expecting significant results when both were in command and facing each other is sort of Fabian vs. Fabian...
Finally, if the rebels lost Richmond in 1862 - which is a very unlikely result - I don't know that it means the immediate end of the rebellion. I certainly don't see it leading to a surrender; between 1775-83, the US lost at least two temporary capitals.
Although it is a blow to Davis' prestige, he'd probably survive, and it is not like there were not quite a few ambitious men waiting in the wings.
The bigger issue is Virginia's economic and manpower resources, and although those would be significant losses, the reality is even if Richmond falls in the (when? spring? summer? autumn?) of 1862, Virginia is a fairly big state, unless McDowell or Banks or whoever actually succeeds in northern Virginia and the Shenandoah, there's a lot of Virginia that is still "rebel," even if Richmond is not.
All in all, an overland advance, anchored on the Potomac to the east and the Bull Run mountains to the west, with strong detached forces in the Bull Run-Blue Ridge and the Blue Ridge-Shenandoah, would have forced the rebels either to withdraw from northern Virginia or come and fight the US forces in a region farther away from their centers of supply - and would have covered the US capital, thus depriving the rebels from any ability to regain the initiative by "threatening" Washington.
At the heart of things, Lincoln was correct in his approach to Virginia in 1862; McClellan was not.
Best,
I think the Confederacy would have just moved it's capitol to Charleston, South Carolina. Or maybe even Atlanta, Georgia.
TFSmith121
Banned
Or back to Montgomery
Or back to Montgomery...
Given the railroad connections, the inland location, and the "shield" provided by the Appalachians to the north, Atlanta was probably the "best" location for the rebellion's capital, all in all.
Best,
Or back to Montgomery...
Given the railroad connections, the inland location, and the "shield" provided by the Appalachians to the north, Atlanta was probably the "best" location for the rebellion's capital, all in all.
Best,
Quite likely, but had the Union been able to take Richmond and keep it, they would have effectively controlled Virginia after that point, denying its many resources to the Confederacy. That would have been seen as a great triumph for the Union and rightly so. And the taking of Richmond was hardly impossible as the climax of the Peninsular campaign. McClellan chose to throw away his opportunities there. After all, out of the six battles that comprise the Seven Days, George won or drew in five of them, including the last, and could have continued operations. And if Grant could cross the James and attack from the south, why could Mac not do likewise? The campaign failed, yes, but not because the mission was impossible. The commander just wasn't willing to fight.
Anaxagoras
Banned
Even if Richmond had not been the capital, its loss would have shortened the war by a year or two. It was the South's primary center of industry and the nail which held Virginia, with all of its resources of food, industry, and manpower, in the Confederacy. Combined with the near-simultaneous loss of New Orleans, its fall would have been fatal, capital or not.
TFSmith121
Banned
Shorten the war? Yes....
Shorten the war? Yes....
Immediately fatal? I don't think so; even reduced to the Carolinas-Georgia-Florida-Alabama-Mississippi, the rebellion will have some staying power...
Best,
Shorten the war? Yes....
Immediately fatal? I don't think so; even reduced to the Carolinas-Georgia-Florida-Alabama-Mississippi, the rebellion will have some staying power...
Best,
That earlu it would probably have been fatal. There is the loss of Industry from Richmond,Nashville and New Orleans. Then the manpower from Virginia and seriously compromising recruitment in North Carolina which is not exactly rampant for secession anyway.
The Carolina Littoral is already being occupied.
Reduced to Georgia, Florida, Alabama Mississippi South Carolina the Confederacy is a miniscule state with limited coastline and a majority slave population.
And dont be too sure about the loyalty of the Appalachian parts of Georgia and Alabama.
The Carolina Littoral is already being occupied.
Reduced to Georgia, Florida, Alabama Mississippi South Carolina the Confederacy is a miniscule state with limited coastline and a majority slave population.
And dont be too sure about the loyalty of the Appalachian parts of Georgia and Alabama.
TFSmith121
Banned
Except that Wilmington (NC) was still open until 1865
Except that Wilmington (NC) was still open until 1865...
I don't think the rebellion would have collapsed if the US had taken Richmond in 1862, any more than the Revolution collapsed because of Boston, New York, and Philadelphia being occupied at various points.
I'd expect it to last at least well into 1863, possibly 1864, depending on the press of events.
And again, even that is in the unlikely realm that McClellan and JE Johnston (or GBM and Lee) actually can fight a campaign on the Peninsula that ends in anything other than stalemate.
Best,
Except that Wilmington (NC) was still open until 1865...
I don't think the rebellion would have collapsed if the US had taken Richmond in 1862, any more than the Revolution collapsed because of Boston, New York, and Philadelphia being occupied at various points.
I'd expect it to last at least well into 1863, possibly 1864, depending on the press of events.
And again, even that is in the unlikely realm that McClellan and JE Johnston (or GBM and Lee) actually can fight a campaign on the Peninsula that ends in anything other than stalemate.
Best,
Deleted member 9338
I have studied and wargamed this situation a number of times and in my opinion if this occurs it will shorten the war for these reasons.
The loss of Richmond and the tidewater region will take away a large part of the South’s iron and steel production. Add to this the manpower loss and the CSA has limited sources for replacements.
The loss of Richmond makes holding upper Virginia difficult. Northern Virginia and the Shenandoah will be hard to hold. More likely they will be occupied with a hostile civilian population in place. Guerilla operations may occur, but this will do little to affect the war.
Now the reasons why it could happen.
As already stated this is not easy ground to campaign on. If our Generals are restricted to only the Peninsula Campaign it will be a long hard grind. If McClellan is able to cross or better make a landing else was he can travel faster and out flank the Confederate forces. This is iffy as it means he has to leave the protection of the rivers.
If he is on more open ground his Napoleonic training could come into play. One of his divisional leaders might be able to inflict a flanking blow. The historical Peninsula does not allow for this.
Opening up the battlefield allows for the Union forces in and around Manassas to get involved.
So we will assume McClellan and company take Richmond. An advance on the hot bed of succession is called for. We now have McClellan marching south on Charlestown. It is possible. I do not have high hopes for him doing this. Therefore he has plenty of time to screw up and lose the nomination. There will also be peace feelers out meaning the war could come to an end soon without all of the baggage of The Lost Cause.
Just my take.
The loss of Richmond and the tidewater region will take away a large part of the South’s iron and steel production. Add to this the manpower loss and the CSA has limited sources for replacements.
The loss of Richmond makes holding upper Virginia difficult. Northern Virginia and the Shenandoah will be hard to hold. More likely they will be occupied with a hostile civilian population in place. Guerilla operations may occur, but this will do little to affect the war.
Now the reasons why it could happen.
As already stated this is not easy ground to campaign on. If our Generals are restricted to only the Peninsula Campaign it will be a long hard grind. If McClellan is able to cross or better make a landing else was he can travel faster and out flank the Confederate forces. This is iffy as it means he has to leave the protection of the rivers.
If he is on more open ground his Napoleonic training could come into play. One of his divisional leaders might be able to inflict a flanking blow. The historical Peninsula does not allow for this.
Opening up the battlefield allows for the Union forces in and around Manassas to get involved.
So we will assume McClellan and company take Richmond. An advance on the hot bed of succession is called for. We now have McClellan marching south on Charlestown. It is possible. I do not have high hopes for him doing this. Therefore he has plenty of time to screw up and lose the nomination. There will also be peace feelers out meaning the war could come to an end soon without all of the baggage of The Lost Cause.
Just my take.
TFSmith121
Banned
LONG march to Charleston....plus, what happened to the
LONG march to Charleston....plus, what happened to the rebel army, even if Richmond falls?
Which I think you agree is a BIG "if"....
Best,
LONG march to Charleston....plus, what happened to the rebel army, even if Richmond falls?
Which I think you agree is a BIG "if"....
Best,
The AoNVa or whatever they designate it would be in a bad way.
Its either very badly beaten up in the fighting - If it survives. A Union Victory would either be the outcome of a siege or the rebels evacuating to avoid a siege.
Its likely to be shedding troops. So a fair possibility that Half of McLaws Bde, Ewell's and AP Hill's Bdes. Pickett's and Colson's Bde. Crump's Bde and most of the Cavalry, Early and Featherstone's Bde's. A lot of Huger's command and quite possibly disintegrating the unbrigaded troops in Virginia. Fields Brigade goes, As does Jackson's Division and Dick Ewell's cavalry. Depending on the exact dates the whole of the Valley Army may get scooped up.
Leaving around 20 Bde without too much by way artillery or cavalry.
Falling back to ? where. Petersburg is the Obvious first point but that just moves the threat of being encircled and besieged down aways. Lil' Mac will bring up his heavy guns and whie an intact AoNVa may stall them there it wont be for long and would suffer desertions.
After that (well slightly before in fact) the choice is to retreat through the bridge burner guerrilla infested Unionist regions of Appalachia or down the road to either Raleigh or Goldsboro.
Burnside would be still around Pamlico Sound with force approaching Goldsboro
The Union - and whatever criticism of Lil Mac he was happy to send out amphib invasions now has a lot of free troops and ships. They can now resupply the AoP overland so the USN and MCdowell and Banks forces are free to either reinforce Burnside who is approaching Goldsboro or launch another seaborne hook.
Best Guess is the Rebel army retreats mostly on the Raleigh/Danville - Greensboro Line possibly Using the SC railroads to try and form a new line operating out of Wilmington.
Lincoln positively orders Li'l MAc to send strong forces to Knoxville and while the pursuit may be sedate the guy on that mission will be a fire eater.
The confederacy is likely to Lose most of NC.
Its either very badly beaten up in the fighting - If it survives. A Union Victory would either be the outcome of a siege or the rebels evacuating to avoid a siege.
Its likely to be shedding troops. So a fair possibility that Half of McLaws Bde, Ewell's and AP Hill's Bdes. Pickett's and Colson's Bde. Crump's Bde and most of the Cavalry, Early and Featherstone's Bde's. A lot of Huger's command and quite possibly disintegrating the unbrigaded troops in Virginia. Fields Brigade goes, As does Jackson's Division and Dick Ewell's cavalry. Depending on the exact dates the whole of the Valley Army may get scooped up.
Leaving around 20 Bde without too much by way artillery or cavalry.
Falling back to ? where. Petersburg is the Obvious first point but that just moves the threat of being encircled and besieged down aways. Lil' Mac will bring up his heavy guns and whie an intact AoNVa may stall them there it wont be for long and would suffer desertions.
After that (well slightly before in fact) the choice is to retreat through the bridge burner guerrilla infested Unionist regions of Appalachia or down the road to either Raleigh or Goldsboro.
Burnside would be still around Pamlico Sound with force approaching Goldsboro
The Union - and whatever criticism of Lil Mac he was happy to send out amphib invasions now has a lot of free troops and ships. They can now resupply the AoP overland so the USN and MCdowell and Banks forces are free to either reinforce Burnside who is approaching Goldsboro or launch another seaborne hook.
Best Guess is the Rebel army retreats mostly on the Raleigh/Danville - Greensboro Line possibly Using the SC railroads to try and form a new line operating out of Wilmington.
Lincoln positively orders Li'l MAc to send strong forces to Knoxville and while the pursuit may be sedate the guy on that mission will be a fire eater.
The confederacy is likely to Lose most of NC.
TFSmith121
Banned
Certainly possible, but:
Certainly possible, but...there were Kentucky and Missouri units in the rebel OOB throughout the war, much less the Maryland Line...
As far as Burnside and what became the IX Corps, it really depends when (and if) McClellan reaches Richmond; the corps, as such, was formed in July of 1862 as a subordinate command in the Army of the Potomac, and including troops and formations what was (at the time) the departments of North Carolina and the South. The three divisions were each formed on the "light" TO&E, each with two brigades of three regiments each, for a total of 18 regiments between the three divisions.
The "heavy" TO&E that most of the Army of the Potomac was organized under were divisions of three brigades each, and brigades of four regiments each. A heavy corps at full TO&E would have 36 regiments.
The above changed during the course of the war, of course.
Best,
Certainly possible, but...there were Kentucky and Missouri units in the rebel OOB throughout the war, much less the Maryland Line...
As far as Burnside and what became the IX Corps, it really depends when (and if) McClellan reaches Richmond; the corps, as such, was formed in July of 1862 as a subordinate command in the Army of the Potomac, and including troops and formations what was (at the time) the departments of North Carolina and the South. The three divisions were each formed on the "light" TO&E, each with two brigades of three regiments each, for a total of 18 regiments between the three divisions.
The "heavy" TO&E that most of the Army of the Potomac was organized under were divisions of three brigades each, and brigades of four regiments each. A heavy corps at full TO&E would have 36 regiments.
The above changed during the course of the war, of course.
Best,
Well there will be Orphans but not too sure how many. And it will require a lot of reorganisation as individuals leave and units thin out.
But I think there are very real possibilities of a collapse in Confederate or at least Virginia moral leading to mass desertion. In their own State they will have witnessed the failure of the CSA in West Virginia, the shameful retreat from the Manassas position with the destruction of stores. The equally pathetic flight from the Yorktown peninsula as soon as the Yankees got close.
Whatever happened around Richmond, which is either another organised flight prior to the Union Siege lines being formed or flight after being defeated in battle with the consequential losses ~ 25% of the starting numbers if on par with the 7 days.
The Union descents on the coasts at will and the sledgehammer blows of the union armies in the West at Henry, Donelson, Mill Springs. The failure of the Counteroffensive at Shiloh
Its quite clear by then that the cool courage of Northern men backed up by weight of their irresistible artillery is more than a match for southron elan and the southern leadership really has no idea of how to fight a modern war Shotguns against rifled artillery? Charging the blue lines to slaughter or scuttling away at the first sign of Old Glory.
There will be a developing sense of southern inferiority in the East and well, George has grown a pair. It may not be a very big pair but his system is working.
But I think there are very real possibilities of a collapse in Confederate or at least Virginia moral leading to mass desertion. In their own State they will have witnessed the failure of the CSA in West Virginia, the shameful retreat from the Manassas position with the destruction of stores. The equally pathetic flight from the Yorktown peninsula as soon as the Yankees got close.
Whatever happened around Richmond, which is either another organised flight prior to the Union Siege lines being formed or flight after being defeated in battle with the consequential losses ~ 25% of the starting numbers if on par with the 7 days.
The Union descents on the coasts at will and the sledgehammer blows of the union armies in the West at Henry, Donelson, Mill Springs. The failure of the Counteroffensive at Shiloh
Its quite clear by then that the cool courage of Northern men backed up by weight of their irresistible artillery is more than a match for southron elan and the southern leadership really has no idea of how to fight a modern war Shotguns against rifled artillery? Charging the blue lines to slaughter or scuttling away at the first sign of Old Glory.
There will be a developing sense of southern inferiority in the East and well, George has grown a pair. It may not be a very big pair but his system is working.
TFSmith121
Banned
Orphans - yes, but I think the reality is the historical
Orphans - yes, but I think the reality is the historical orphans, the rebel Kentuckians and Price's Missourians - hung on pretty much through the war, albeit in diminishing numbers; Maryland units in the CSA lasted, formally at least, until 1865...
Best,
Orphans - yes, but I think the reality is the historical orphans, the rebel Kentuckians and Price's Missourians - hung on pretty much through the war, albeit in diminishing numbers; Maryland units in the CSA lasted, formally at least, until 1865...
Best,
Diminishing is right, 4k on recruitment, 1500 effectives before Murfreesboro, 500 on surrender.
And when does the commanding General start shooting them for desertion when then they visit momma?
Hardcore yes but not the 63? infantry regiments from Virginia OTL ( and 65 from NC that will be hard to recruit to.
And when does the commanding General start shooting them for desertion when then they visit momma?
Hardcore yes but not the 63? infantry regiments from Virginia OTL ( and 65 from NC that will be hard to recruit to.
TFSmith121
Banned
Sure ... there's also the question of the whole "galvanized"
Sure ... there's also the question of the whole "galvanized" gambit for any "north of the front line" rebels who can't make it back...
I'm not disagreeing there would not be an impact if "McClellan actually took Richmond"
, simply that even losing Virginia doesn't mean the rebellion will collapse in 1862, any more than the Revolution did in 1777 or 1779...
Best,
Sure ... there's also the question of the whole "galvanized" gambit for any "north of the front line" rebels who can't make it back...
I'm not disagreeing there would not be an impact if "McClellan actually took Richmond"
, simply that even losing Virginia doesn't mean the rebellion will collapse in 1862, any more than the Revolution did in 1777 or 1779...Best,
Collapse in 62, probably not. 63 campaigning season probably. I mean not even the Young Napoleon could screw that up, could he.