Could the US mobilized to WWII levels after 1945?

Memphis

Banned
In a recent thread, people are saying that the Soviet Union. Lund not invade Western Europe between 1946-1949 because they were still recovering from World War II.

Many people are also saying how the US had a lot of manpower to call on. It's population wasn't even really touched like how Russia's or China's were.

Over 16 million men and women serves in the US military, and America's industry built the largest navy and air force in history.

In 1945, the second largest Air Force was the US navy with its planes. The second largest navy was the US army with its boats.

The navy had about 99 aircraft carriers, not including the ones built for Britain, Canada, and Australia, which all became the largest navies in that order.

I know the US military never reached that level again because nukes made the idea useless.

What would make the US mobilized that many men again and start war productions to such levels? And was it possible again?

Could the USA become the "Arsenal of Democracy" again?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Troops? Probably, although the rather poor physical fitness and mindset of the current population would make it... interesting to see many of them go through Boot.

Weapons are an interesting question. Current U.S. industry would struggle to produce the masses of ships, but the reality of modern warfare is that, except for ammunition and maybe some light vehicles, any modern war will be a "run what you brung" event. Modern carriers take at least five years, it might be possible to cut that to three by going three shifts seven days a week, and they are so big that exactly one yard on Earth can build USN ships. The various weapons are so much more expensive that the number built can't be as high, even if it was possible to build them. As an example, the most costly USN WW II ships were the Iowa class BB, in 2013 dollars the were around one billion each. The new USS Ford carrier class are SEVEN BILLION dollars. A single carrier has a greater cost than ALL the fast BB the USN ever built. The cost of a P-51 in 2013 dollars is around 500K, the F-15E is $90 million

Warfare has been changed through technology. No country can afford the force size that was seen in WW II. The entire global economy couldn't support the cost of building and outfitting TF 38/58.
 
Can't disagree with Calbear's point

War is now a very capital intensive project.

But that said, remember why we mobilized like we did in 1941-45: It was total war. We assumed national survival was at stake.

To maximize our warmaking capability again - at any point since 1945 - we would need a perceived threat of similar potency.
 
The new USS Ford carrier class are SEVEN BILLION dollars. A single carrier has a greater cost than ALL the fast BB the USN ever built. The cost of a P-51 in 2013 dollars is around 500K, the F-15E is $90 million

Small quibble, Calbear:

Don't want to disagree with the basic point you are making - even in real dollars, weapons systems cost a lot more today. Of course, even allowing for waste, they also are far more efficient at delivering firepower.

But on this claim - we had total of ten (10) fast battleships: 2 North Carolina, 4 South Dakotas, and 4 Iowas (built). Iowas cost $100 million each; North Carolinas, $60 million; South Dakotas, $77 million. That's a total of $828 million. In 2014 dollars, that's about $19.8 billion. Which would buy you...not quite three Ford-class carriers - sans aircraft. Factor in aircraft and missiles, and, well, those ten battleships get you one Ford carrier with all its planes. Of course, one Ford carrier could send all ten fast battleships to the bottom inside an hour without working up a sweat or scratching the paint, so...

None of which counts how much more training is necessary for that Ford-class carrier versus those battleships, either.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Small quibble, Calbear:

Don't want to disagree with the basic point you are making - even in real dollars, weapons systems cost a lot more today. Of course, even allowing for waste, they also are far more efficient at delivering firepower.

But on this claim - we had total of ten (10) fast battleships: 2 North Carolina, 4 South Dakotas, and 4 Iowas (built). Iowas cost $100 million each; North Carolinas, $60 million; South Dakotas, $77 million. That's a total of $828 million. In 2014 dollars, that's about $19.8 billion. Which would buy you...not quite three Ford-class carriers - sans aircraft. Factor in aircraft and missiles, and, well, those ten battleships get you one Ford carrier with all its planes. Of course, one Ford carrier could send all ten fast battleships to the bottom inside an hour without working up a sweat or scratching the paint, so...

None of which counts how much more training is necessary for that Ford-class carrier versus those battleships, either.

It depends on how you figure the relative value. For projects the for ever 100 1943 dollars the 2014 figure ranges from $1090 using historic opportunity cost to $8,260 for economic cost. I generally use the lowest figure whenever I do these sort of comparisons, I also don't count refit costs. I lowballed the Ford class ships as well, based on the price that follow on ships are supposed to come in (Ford herself is $12.5B).
 
Small quibble, Calbear:

Don't want to disagree with the basic point you are making - even in real dollars, weapons systems cost a lot more today. Of course, even allowing for waste, they also are far more efficient at delivering firepower.

But on this claim - we had total of ten (10) fast battleships: 2 North Carolina, 4 South Dakotas, and 4 Iowas (built). Iowas cost $100 million each; North Carolinas, $60 million; South Dakotas, $77 million. That's a total of $828 million. In 2014 dollars, that's about $19.8 billion. Which would buy you...not quite three Ford-class carriers - sans aircraft. Factor in aircraft and missiles, and, well, those ten battleships get you one Ford carrier with all its planes. Of course, one Ford carrier could send all ten fast battleships to the bottom inside an hour without working up a sweat or scratching the paint, so...

None of which counts how much more training is necessary for that Ford-class carrier versus those battleships, either.

How does that climb compare to the increase in GDP and everything else in the same time period? WWII was apparently 4.1 trillion in today's dollars for the US, which is about on par with what the US spent on bail outs for this recession.
 

Lateknight

Banned
Troops? Probably, although the rather poor physical fitness and mindset of the current population would make it... interesting to see many of them go through Boot.

I don't see how that much from WW2 I mean weren't a lot people turned away from the army because they weren't physically fit I think was because were malnourished growing up staving in the depression.
 
Of course, one Ford carrier could send all ten fast battleships to the bottom inside an hour without working up a sweat or scratching the paint, so...

The flipside to that is that the Ford-class carrier could be sunk in even less time. The war between the warhead and armor is long over, the warhead has won. Ask a professional military man what the best defense of the carrier is against a peer competitor and he'll reply "try and avoid being found". Once a Ford-class is located by an enemy, they can overwhelm it's and it's escort's active defenses with AShMs... and still ensure enough missiles get through to destroy the carrier.

The similar problem exists on land. In a situation where both sides have equal or sufficiently-equal equipment and training, the advantage comes down to who spots who first. Back in World War 2, it was generally accepted that the first shot from a tank will miss what it's aimed at. Today with modern stabilizers and laser-range finders, a competently trained crew can bullseye their target 90-95% of the time.

The advanced weapons that take a whole lot longer to build then they did in World War 2 are also a lot easier to destroy then they were in World War 2 because they are a whole lot more lethal to each other.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
I don't see how that much from WW2 I mean weren't a lot people turned away from the army because they weren't physically fit I think was because were malnourished growing up staving in the depression.

To a degree that is true. The issue today is the exact opposite. Under current entry standards only around 29% of Americans in the 18-24 age group can pass the physical. Even with the undoubtedly lowered standards of a WW II scale war, it wouldn't surprise me to see 40% of draftees fail.

This is just one of number of articles that have come out on the issue:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/recruits-ineligibility-tests-the-military-1403909945

While you could expect the military to worry a LOT less about tattoos or even criminal records in a "total war" scenario, and that individuals who were 40-50 pounds overweight to get inducted and then get their asses well and truly kicked, the ones with ADHD, ADD, or other medical issues that can't be cured with restricted diets and extra PT would be a LOT more difficult to deal with.

One piece of "good" news is that in any really modern war, a lot of individuals who are not physically fit enough for service may be idea for work in informational warfare. Another is that the actual draft pool would almost certainly include women, adding many more potential recruits.
 
While you could expect the military to worry a LOT less about tattoos or even criminal records in a "total war" scenario, and that individuals who were 40-50 pounds overweight to get inducted and then get their asses well and truly kicked, the ones with ADHD, ADD, or other medical issues that can't be cured with restricted diets and extra PT would be a LOT more difficult to deal with.

A percentage, I would argue a high percentage, of the people who are being treated for ADHD or ADD are using it as an excuse or being diagnosed by certain teachers incorrectly. I have a cousin who passed public school here in the USA with high grades and without any ADD drugs, but the moment she got into college she failed because she partied too much and at that point she was diagnosed with ADD.
 
Probably not.

The sheer cost of maintaining an army the size of the one at the end of WW2 would be tremendous! As the United States were experiencing an economic boom at the end of WW2 the last thing the congressmen would want to do would be to waste that revenue on keeping an army that would be essentially useless.
Especially considering that that money could be better spent the GI bill and/or Marshall Aid as in OTL
 
The only way the US mobilizes to WWII levels post wwii is
1) nukes arent developed
And
2) WWIII starts before .... 1960, say.

Compare the stats on ships. All US fast battleships cost approx as much as a modern super carrier. Now add up crews. Isnt the entire crew roster of a supercarrier about that of a battleship (or two)?

We couldnt possibly build as many Raptors as we did P51s. Etc. The cost, complexity and capability of modern weapons means that we couldnt use anywhere near as many as were mobilized for wwii.

The only exception would (possibly) be an alien invasion - but that is ASB, by definition.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Easily...

In a recent thread, people are saying that the Soviet Union. Lund not invade Western Europe between 1946-1949 because they were still recovering from World War II.

Many people are also saying how the US had a lot of manpower to call on. It's population wasn't even really touched like how Russia's or China's were.

Over 16 million men and women serves in the US military, and America's industry built the largest navy and air force in history.

In 1945, the second largest Air Force was the US navy with its planes. The second largest navy was the US army with its boats.

The navy had about 99 aircraft carriers, not including the ones built for Britain, Canada, and Australia, which all became the largest navies in that order.

I know the US military never reached that level again because nukes made the idea useless.

What would make the US mobilized that many men again and start war productions to such levels? And was it possible again?

Could the USA become the "Arsenal of Democracy" again?

After 1945?

Easily, given an equivalent series of threats, which is, after all, pretty unlikely.

But are you looking for exactly the same force structure for a multi-theater conventional conflict, or global thermonuclear war, or what? And when, exactly?

Best,
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
The only way the US mobilizes to WWII levels post wwii is
1) nukes arent developed
And
2) WWIII starts before .... 1960, say.

Compare the stats on ships. All US fast battleships cost approx as much as a modern super carrier. Now add up crews. Isnt the entire crew roster of a supercarrier about that of a battleship (or two)?

We couldnt possibly build as many Raptors as we did P51s. Etc. The cost, complexity and capability of modern weapons means that we couldnt use anywhere near as many as were mobilized for wwii.

The only exception would (possibly) be an alien invasion - but that is ASB, by definition.

Iowa class BB had a total crew of 2,700 in WW II, down to 1,800 during the 1980s reactivation (no longer needed the swarms of gunners mates to man all the light/medium AAA), South Dakota's were around 2,300. The Nimitz class including airwing is around 5,300 crew Ford class will muster ~4,500 (including airwing). So a Nimitz class had just about the crew of two 1945 Iowa class BB or three Cold War time-frame complements.
 
The only way the US mobilizes to WWII levels post wwii is
1) nukes arent developed
And
2) WWIII starts before .... 1960, say.

........................................................................................................

Then the USA would be forced to maintain large conventional forces to fight communism on equal terms.
 
Technically, I think we could. We have twice as many people as we did in 1945, so it should be possible. The question is what kind of situation could possibly warrant that level of mobilization?
 
Troops? Probably, although the rather poor physical fitness and mindset of the current population would make it... interesting to see many of them go through Boot.

If I made it through boot, most of them could as well, if they were motivated to do it.

We'd lower the physical standards with a draft. The average non-combat enlisted personnel today is probably as fit as a WWII-era Marine.

By the time we mobilized, nukes would be flying, and this level of mobilization wouldn't be militarily useful or needed.
 
Physical fitness would be even less of an issue than during WWII. Undernourishment, especially during childhood, leaves far more permanent physical penalties than over nourishment, and pretty much no one is undernourished today barring Central American immigrants.
 
The U.S. could not mobilize today as it did in WW2.

First, I don't think our existing industries could be as easily converted to building modern weapons. I believe the gap between what is required to build an Abrams tank and a modern automobile is rather greater than between what was required to build an M3 halftrack or Sherman tank vs a 1940 Ford car. And the existing factories for military production are capable of producing only rather small quantities of systems; it's not like they have huge "slack" capacity. So new factories for producing tanks and other heavy vehicles will need to be built from the ground up. I don't know the situation with advanced airframes and high-performance aircraft engines, but I suspect some of the same factors apply.

We can't do it with personnel, either. First, attitudes toward the government and acceptance of how much control it should be allowed over the lives and choices of individual citizens has changed. The draft will be resisted to a much greater extent than in 1941. People question the truth of what the government tells them more nowadays, and i think they are far more likely to simply say "Why should I fight in a war that was only made necessary by meddling inappropriately and mismanaging foreign policy? Our own country is to blame for this crisis, and I won't support it."
The level of provocation needed to cause 1941-level unity of purpose and acceptance of hardship is likely to be even greater than that needed to cause leaders to order mobilization in the first place.

American youths are, on average, much more sedentary that in the early 1940's. This means that a very large proportion are unfit for service. It's not as simple as saying "We'll just kick their butts harder". Even today's softened-down Basic breaks a lot of recruits. Some wash out during Basic due to physical injuries or conditions caused by the strains of getting fit; many others are pushed on to AIT broken, where the effort to physically rehabilitate them seriously detracts from training, and all too often fails. It was not uncommon for me to see 20-plus "profiles" trailing along behind a 200-strong formation marching to PT. I know for a fact that many were faking, but this is revealing, too: if a fair fraction of the minority of American youths who were motivated enough to even try joining the Army, are then willing to fake injury in order to quit after just 3-4 months' service, you've got a problem. What will happen among draftees who didn't want to be there in the first place, and whose beginning fitness level is even lower on average? Then consider how all Americans -- but particularly parents -- are not as accepting of truly brutal training conditions, so instituting a really tough Basic will be difficult in the first place -- and really tough Basic is what you'll need.

On the subject of ADD/ADHD, many parents are going to raise holy hell if the incorrect diagnosis for these conditions gets overturned by the military; expect lots of complaints and pleas for help to Congressmen. In the case of legitimate diagnoses, yes these can often be managed through proper diet and drugs. But the logistical effort to provide this diet and these drugs will be an additional burden during wartime, and is guaranteed to often fall short, which will have negative consequences if large numbers of ADD/ADHD people are in service.

One last note on fitness. Although it is true that the physical demands of being a support troop are much less than those of being a combat infantryman, they are still (particularly in a non-static combat theater) quite a lot higher than what sedentary American youth are accustomed to. So even when training to fill support roles, you'll have to encounter a high wastage rate in Basic training; you cant just throw couch potatoes into even these relatively less demanding positions.

Oh, and you'd better think twice before drafting females. Americans seem to assume that women can do absolutely anything that men can, and every bit as well*, and are determined that they get the chance -- when and if they so choose. But I don't think they are ready for women as a whole to be forced to accept the responsibilities implied by this. We'd draft fathers, but no way we'd do the same with mothers, for instance. It might be interesting to note that female soldiers (at least in the U.S. Military system) pose a considerably higher logistical burden during deployment to a non-static theater than males, due to health and hygiene requirements. Further, I have been in units where literally no less than 1/3 of female soldiers suddenly become pregnant in the months just before deployment. If you start drafting females, expect a largish and sustained baby boom in the civilian population.

These are just my thoughts, not the opinions of any U.S. service branch. And if they seem negative, they are based on 20 years in the Army, plus 45 years' observation of the American public (especially the rather profound changes in the conditions and attitudes of youth, just between the 1970's and today).

Edit: my opinion is that, considering industrial and social factors, the U.S. could conduct a WW2-level mobilization anytime during the 40's through the later 60's with somewhat increasing levels of difficulty. From the
late 60's through perhaps the 80's, its ability to do so becomes problematic. From the 90's until today, I think it is effectively impossible. The U.S. could still mobilize strongly, but not in the way ot to the level it did during WW2. At least, not unless the provocation was so traumatic that it caused a profound change in the most basic American mindset overnight, which I think is harder to achieve than simply convincing American leaders that a full mobilization is needed.


*I'm not about to enter a debate on differences between males and females, and what implications this might have for serving in various military capacities, so don't even try to draw me into such a conversation. I will say that I think females statistically perform as well as males in most roles, and perhaps statistically better in some roles. I completely support the idea of females serving in the military in general.
 
Last edited:
Top