WI: Pro - Axis Greece??

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Greece had strong economic ties with both Italy and Germany, and parts of it's elites were strongly pro German. Moreover British blockade hurt business in Greece, turning the public support away from supporting it. What if Benny decided that he had enough rocks, goats, and bandits in Albania, and in his magnanimous way decide to settle the border issues in Greece favour? He not only avoids biggest blunder in Italian history, but also saves some of the resources Italy lost over Epirus for other fronts.

Which scenario sounds most reasonable*??

a) Greece stays "friendly neutral". They provide a way through continental blockade allowing some of the strategic resources to pass, which helps Axis somewhat. Most of the "warfare" is made by spies, diplomats, and border guards. In 1942 they send a token regiment or two to fight commies in Russia.

b) Greece officially declares war on UK. They allow their allies to build air bases on their territory. Axis gains air superiority over eastern med and largely cuts off Malta, but loses a).

c) UK pre-empts scenario b) and invades Crete, or even pulls Mers al Kebir on Athens?
 

Dunbar

Britain doesn't waste troops fighting in Greece. Stronger chance of Greece going commie after the war.
 

sloreck

Agreed, if Italy doesn't get stupid Greece stays neutral...and if friendly like Spain you can see Crete being a covert base for listening posts, radar, special ops against Allies like Spain was. The UK, and later the Allies/USA won't invade Greece any more than they will invade Spain. An Axis-Friendly Greece may be in the "wilderness" a bit following WWII like Spain was, but on the other hand they won't have the war devastation and absent the German/Italian occupation, the Communists won't be able to power up the civil war as per OTL which is another positive for Greece.

Even an Axis-friendly Greece won't actually join the war unless they see Rommel in Cairo. Greece will want Cyprus, and probably any Turkish Aegean islands - desires that may conflict with Italian desires, as well as getting bits of Turkey and Germany does not want to piss off Turkey by giving bits away to Greece, and Germany would have to help Greece take anything the Turks could not be bullied in to giving.
 

Michele

betrayor said:
If italy doesnt invade greece, then greece probably ends up like spain, neutral...
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In fact I don't see why not. Besides, that's what Hitler wanted - a neutral Balkan area to buffer his Barbarossa southern flank from British interference, and as a neutral source of strategic raw materials.

In this situation, it's possible, however, that at the most inconvenient time for the Greeks (i.e., in late 1941, when everybody's expecting the Soviet Union to collapse), it is the British that violate Greek neutrality, not with ground troops but with naval operations. Metaxás is no longer there, and I don't know enough about his successor, but there is a possibility that Greece might make the mistake of challenging the British and join the Axis.
 

NOMISYRRUC

The Greeks aren't fighting the Italians so the British don't send 12 RAF squadrons and an army corps of 3 divisions to Greece.

That doesn't necessarily mean that the British take Tripoli before the Rommel arrives, but it probably means that the don't get pushed back to the Egyptian frontier in 1941 either.

The British lost 3 cruisers and 8 destroyers in Greece and Crete.

On the other hand the Italians don't loose 3 cruisers and 2 destroyers at Matapan. The German air landing troops and their transport force of Ju52s aren't decimated in the invasion of Crete, because there isn't one.
 

NOMISYRRUC

If the Italians don't attack Greece it allows them to concentrate on Libya. Would that prevent the British from taking Cyrencia in 1941?
 

NOMISYRRUC

wiking said:
If anything it would allow the invasion of Malta.
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I'd forgotten about that, but I do half remember from reading Liddel-Hart that the British expected the Axis powers to follow-up Crete by taking Cyprus and then Cairo. Would an invasion of Cyprus be feasible if Greece as an active ally rather than a friendly neutral.

If Greece remains neutral they will loose the shortest supply route to Cyrencia. That is unless the Greeks allow the supply ships to use their territorial waters. The Italian convoys to Tripoli were able to hug the coast of Tunisia without fear of attack until the British changed the route of engagement.

They won't be able to use Crete as a base to attack the Alexandria to Malta convoys so one side of "bomb alley" is gone. However, if they take Malta instead of taking Crete then no more Malta convoys.
 

NOMISYRRUC

If Greece remains neutral or declares war on Great Britain how does that effect Yugoslavia? Does the pro-allied coup still happen? Even if it does are they less of a threat to Hitler's southern flank? Would the Germans still invade?

According to the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers the Germans had 612,000 troops in the Balkans in November 1943, but if both countries were neutral ITTL the men could be fighting on other fronts. Probably Russia where the same source says the Germans had 3.9 million men facing 5.5 million Russians. But they could also have been sent to Italy where there were only 412,000 men, used to man more anti-aircraft guns in Germany or sent back to German industry.

If Greece and Yugoslavia were neutral would the WAllies respect their neutrality. US bombers based in Egypt and later Southern Italy had to fly over their territory to bomb the Romanian oil fields.
 

jmc247

NOMISYRRUC said:
If Greece remains neutral or declares war on Great Britain how does that effect Yugoslavia? Does the pro-allied coup still happen? Even if it does are they less of a threat to Hitler's southern flank? Would the Germans still invade?

According to the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers the Germans had 612,000 troops in the Balkans in November 1943, but if both countries were neutral ITTL the men could be fighting on other fronts. Probably Russia where the same source says the Germans had 3.9 million men facing 5.5 million Russians. But they could also have been sent to Italy where there were only 412,000 men, used to man more anti-aircraft guns in Germany or sent back to German industry.

If Greece and Yugoslavia were neutral would the WAllies respect their neutrality. US bombers based in Egypt and later Southern Italy had to fly over their territory to bomb the Romanian oil fields.
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It means Yugoslovia is either neutral or more likely pro-Axis. Either way we are talking about a war in the East that is a fair bit tougher for the Soviets from 41 on.

We are talking about 100% ready units hitting the USSR in 1941 and a few cards not played like on Crete so the attack should be even more successful.
 

NOMISYRRUC

nastle said:
Greece had no real modern warships which were a threat to anyone
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The Royal Hellenic Navy had 2 pre-dreadnought battleships, 2 old cruisers, 10 destroyers and 6 submarines plus minor war vessels when Italy declared war.

The single cruiser, 7 destroyers and 5 submarines that survived the German invasion retired to join the British under whose operational control they remained until the end of the war. During 1943-44 the British loaned 2 destroyers, 6 escort destroyers, 4 corvettes, 4 submarines and several minor war vessels to the Greeks which were operated by them in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile the Germans salvaged one of the 3 destroyers that was sunk in April 1941 and commissioned her as the ZG3 Hermes.

Although that isn't a large force, the British Mediterranean Fleet would still miss the support it provided. Cunningham was always short of destroyers. For example he only had 20 destroyers in June 1940. According to Roskill the Queen Elisabeth and Valiant should have been at sea escorting a Malta convoy when they were sunk by Italian human torpedoes, but they had to remain in harbour for want of destroyers to screen them.

Although the Regia Navale was considerably bigger than the RHN it would still have preferred to have it neutral or on their side patrolling the Agean and helping to escort the convoys to Cyrencia than against them.
 

NOMISYRRUC

Greece did not possess a large navy, but the country was an important maritime power because it had a substantial merchant marine. It had 389 vessels displacing over 1,600 tons with a combined displacement of 1,663,000 tons, gross.

IOTL these ships came under British control after the Greece was occupied. According to the British official history on the control of merchant shipping 21 million tons, gross of merchant shipping was under British control on 30/06/41 and 3.8 million ton, gross of them (18%) were time-chartered foreign flag vessels. Unfortunately it does not say how many of them were Greek, but I think half a million tons would be a conservative estimate.

If Greece was a pro-Axis neutral or an active member of the Axis these ships would be taken out of the Wallied side of the scales and put into the Axis side.

According to the same source the Italians and 3.1 million GRT of merchant ships in 1939. A large proportion were outside the Mediterranean when war was declared and was sunk or captured by the British. If the Greeks are more sensible and recall their ships before declaring war that would allow the Axis to send more supplies to North Africa. Except for oil because according tot he source they only had 39,000 gross tons of tankers.
 

King Augeas

NOMISYRRUC said:
If the Italians don't attack Greece it allows them to concentrate on Libya. Would that prevent the British from taking Cyrencia in 1941?
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Probably not. If the Italians have more transport, then they can push further into Egypt, but this doesn't help them. Their camps were attacked individually by superior armour, likewise. It might make a difference at Beda Fomm though, if they can break through the roadblock before the pursuing forces can catch up. But I suspect that the difficulties of supplying additional forces forward would mean that things would play out similarly.

Malta is interesting though. One of the reasons that Benny attacked Greece was because he needed to do something. Malta fits that bill too. But it's difficult. If we assume that an attack on Malta happens around the same time as Greece was invaded - late October - then this is also the time that Taranto is due to happen.

Any invasion will have to have naval support. The Italian fleet is powerful, with six battleships before Taranto. However only the two modern ones appear to be any good - the Cavours and Andrea Dorias, with 12.6" guns and 11" armour, look decidedly inferior to an R or QE except in terms of speed - and if they're having to defend a beachhead or convoy, that won't come into it much. The deficiencies in the battleships' torpedo defence systems and nightfighting are also well known, as is the ineffectiveness of Italian bombers at this point.

Really, the Italians will have to take Malta quickly before the RN arrives. If not, their fleet will be driven off at best or routed and driven off at worst.
 
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