WI: Central Victory in WW1

So, I have a couple of events that I was wondering about how to go about butterflying.

1) France and Germany sign a peace treaty in 1917 ending the war on the Western Front in a status quo ante bellum.
2) No Russian revolution until after the war.
3) Austro-Italian Front role reversal (Austria gets pushed back until the end)
4) Bulgaria joins the war in 1914, leading to a quicker Serbian defeat.
5) Romania remains neutral or joins the Central Powers.

Any chances? How would I go about this?

TheBrunswickian said:

So, I have a couple of events that I was wondering about how to go about butterflying.

1) France and Germany sign a peace treaty in 1917 ending the war on the Western Front in a status quo ante bellum.
2) No Russian revolution until after the war.
3) Austro-Italian Front role reversal (Austria gets pushed back until the end)
4) Bulgaria joins the war in 1914, leading to a quicker Serbian defeat.
5) Romania remains neutral or joins the Central Powers.

Any chances? How would I go about this?

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I'll look at 1) at the end, since it seems to be reliant on the other aspects going other ways.

2) If you mean a Russian Revolution of any kind, this is possible, given dissatisfaction with Nicholas' ineffectual military exploits. If you mean a Bolshevik Revolution, this is virtually impossible. They were able to take over precisely because they marketed themselves as the anti-war revolutionaries, which gained credence after the Provisional Government (under pressure from the Entente) refused to end the war with Germany.

3) Could theoretically happen with a disintegration of the Balkan front, although unlikely. Protecting the approaches to Vienna would be a greater priority than the Southern Balkans, IMHO.

4) Too early for Bulgarian entry. Tsar Ferdinand had courted both alliances. If the Bulgarians join too early, it risks putting the Turks into the Entente camp. It took a while for the Germans to convince the Turks to promise to give Adrianople to the Bulgarians after victory (I imagine they would backstab the Bulgarians in the end), without which I doubt they would join the CP.

5) Romania remaining neutral or joining the Central Powers is relatively easy. Neutrality can be assured without the Brusilov Offensive. They could join the CP if the Russians looked like they were on their last legs (to secure Bessarabia). But there is the complicating factor of Bulgarian claims to Southern Dobrudja.

1) Really depends so much on the course of alternate WWI that it can't be answered properly, IMHO :/

TheBrunswickian said:

So, I have a couple of events that I was wondering about how to go about butterflying.

1) France and Germany sign a peace treaty in 1917 ending the war on the Western Front in a status quo ante bellum.
2) No Russian revolution until after the war.
3) Austro-Italian Front role reversal (Austria gets pushed back until the end)
4) Bulgaria joins the war in 1914, leading to a quicker Serbian defeat.
5) Romania remains neutral or joins the Central Powers.

Any chances? How would I go about this?

Click to expand...

Well, in order, try the following:

1) Geoben gets sunk 1914, no Ottoman involvement
2) Bulgaria declares 1914, which would make Rumania shy way from involvement, Serbia overrun 1915
3) Entente lands in Dalmatia 1915 as an alternative to Gallipoli. This pulls forces away from Italian front and Trentino etc offensives are more
successful
4) German peace feelers that happened OTL to Russia in Autumn 1916 are accepted. may have to butterfly N2 for this to happen(assassinated?)
5) Germany is so exhausted by Verdun and the Somme and the Austrian reverses that she agrees to a white peace status quo or maybe somewhat more in her favour(Luxemburg to Germany etc). For this to happen, Ludendorff needs to have his influence downgraded and Bethamnn, who favoured a compromise peace, needs to stay as Chancellor.

One of the major problems with a negotiated peace (one Germany's parliament tried for in 1916) was the question of how and when. In a hostage exchange you are supposed to exchange captives at the same time. However, what Germany needed to exchange was land, and what the Entente needed to exchange was the blockage. Once Germany withdraws from the land it can't get it back. The Entente meanwhile can put the blockade back on whenever it feels like. Logistically Germany is taking all the risk with no hard assurances.

tenthring said:

One of the major problems with a negotiated peace (one Germany's parliament tried for in 1916) was the question of how and when. In a hostage exchange you are supposed to exchange captives at the same time. However, what Germany needed to exchange was land, and what the Entente needed to exchange was the blockage. Once Germany withdraws from the land it can't get it back. The Entente meanwhile can put the blockade back on whenever it feels like. Logistically Germany is taking all the risk with no hard assurances.

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That is true only to an extent. If the allies have more success via Italy and possibly against Austria, they will also be giving up something. Also, "giving up" land that consists of static trench warfare may be seen as not giving up much.

johnboy said:

5) Germany is so exhausted by Verdun and the Somme and the Austrian reverses that she agrees to a white peace status quo or maybe somewhat more in her favour(Luxemburg to Germany etc). For this to happen, Ludendorff needs to have his influence downgraded and Bethamnn, who favoured a compromise peace, needs to stay as Chancellor.

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Trouble is, if Germany lowered her sights to that extent, it would be seen as an admission that she couldn't win - so the Allies would immediately put up their demands.

Getting both sides ready for compromise at the same time is a bit like getting both ends of a seesaw to point upward at the same time.

1) A treaty with france and Belgium that does not transfer colonies to Germany would be considered weak by the Germans. However acceptable if we talk of a bare minimum CP victory (basically a stalemate that favoured Germany somewhat). Does this mean Germany has to release Luxembourg too?

2) Hmm, this is hard. Russia's mismanagement of the war was one of the things that lead to the Revolution, but if the Russians had done better Germa ny wouldn't win.

3) So you aim for a CP that's mainly thanks to Germany and A-H really was just holding with German help? Certainly doable. Would make Vienna very weak after the war.

4) Bulgaria joining earlier is doable.

5) This could be achieved too. Especially if Serbia collapsed fast and Greece never join. Romania is not suicidal.