WI: Early Cold War Air and Space Technology without the German Rocket Program

Germany spent more money on its rocketry program than the Commonwealth and United States did on the Manhattan Project, significantly advancing the technology. What impact would there have been on post-war technology and culture (think science fiction, space travel, and perceptions of war) if the technology hadn't been developed and used in war by the Germans? How might air and naval technology and combat have been changed without investment in large scale rockets by the Germans (smaller rockets would likely be developed)?

Delta Force said:

Germany spent more money on its rocketry program than the Commonwealth and United States did on the Manhattan Project, significantly advancing the technology. What impact would there have been on post-war technology and culture (think science fiction, space travel, and perceptions of war) if the technology hadn't been developed and used in war by the Germans? How might air and naval technology and combat have been changed without investment in large scale rockets by the Germans (smaller rockets would likely be developed)?

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Buck Rodgers and Flash Gordon predate WWII

Godard and von Karman were working on liquid JATO and solid RATO before the first V1 launched. Navy was working on SAMs for Kamikazes

Large, liquid fuel rockets, that would be delayed.

If Goddard and Hughes got together it would be slow but steady development. Computors are the key. Paperwork from the German rocket program filled nine liberty ships.

One question of course is, if the Germans don't put money into that, what do they put it into? Be interesting to see what they could come up with if they put it into say R4Ms, X-4s or V-1s.

marathag said:

Buck Rodgers and Flash Gordon predate WWII

Godard and von Karman were working on liquid JATO and solid RATO before the first V1 launched. Navy was working on SAMs for Kamikazes

Large, liquid fuel rockets, that would be delayed.

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Von Karman's JPL was already working on a large liquid rocket (contract let in 1944):

http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/corporal.htm

And Convair started on what would become the Atlas ICBM contract in 1946:

http://www.astronautix.com/fam/atlas.htm

So ICBMs will continue apace without the Germans. The greater consequence might be less popularization of space by von Braun, and no moon landing (at least not in the 1960s).

MattII said:

One question of course is, if the Germans don't put money into that, what do they put it into? Be interesting to see what they could come up with if they put it into say R4Ms, X-4s or V-1s.

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Aerial rockets and rocket artillery would have been far more tactically useful than the V-2. There are far less expensive means of delivering one tons of explosives, which usually have the benefit of also being reusable.

I'd imagine space exploration might be set back by a few years, but not crippled. Others have already mention existing American efforts, and the Soviets also had fairly significant research programs ongoing under the auspices of RNII, which had existed since 1933.

LostCosmonaut said:

I'd imagine space exploration might be set back by a few years, but not crippled. Others have already mention existing American efforts, and the Soviets also had fairly significant research programs ongoing under the auspices of RNII, which had existed since 1933.

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As I recall, the RNII experts sent to Germany at the end of the war were shocked by just how powerful the German engines were, around 5-10 times the thrust of what they'd been looking into at the time. They were probably a good 5 years behind in this respect. Also, the Soviet programme was given a huge boost not just from the German scientists and rockets they captured, but also from the huge tonnage of high quality machine tools they were able to loot and ship back home which simply couldn't be matched in the USSR.

Also a factor is the fact that the German deployment of the V-2, whilst militarily insignificant, had a huge psychological impact on convincing military brass in the US and USSR that rocketry was a serious technology that deserved correspondingly serious funding. Without that example, pioneers on both sides of the Iron Curtain would have faced much leaner times in the late '40s and '50s. (Even IOTL, the Soviet military chiefs were initially much more interested in jet engine technology than rockets).

So my expectation would be that no German rocket programme would push back development of an effective ICBM in the US by a couple of years, and by 3-5 years in the USSR, with the Americans being the first to field a viable weapon rather than OTL's Soviet R-7.

If people aren't as interested in rocketry, might aviation and jet engines receive more funding instead? How would military reconnaissance and nuclear deployment (and air defense) change without advanced rockets and missiles?

Delta Force said:

Germany spent more money on its rocketry program than the Commonwealth and United States did on the Manhattan Project,

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More? I know it was expensive, but THAT expensive?

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

More? I know it was expensive, but THAT expensive?

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USA still spent more on the B-29, three Billion, and that doesn't include the money spent on mass producing the Wright R3350, either

marathag said:

Godard and von Karman were working on liquid JATO and solid RATO before the first V1 launched. Navy was working on SAMs for Kamikazes.

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The British were also working on guided weapons during the war with their Artemis air-to-air and Brakemine surface-to-air missiles, which whilst still in the experimental phase were apparently pretty successful. Turning to answer the original question I can't recall offhand how much German data contributed to British missile programmes after the war, but as the other Simon has mentioned there were already missile programmes happening in other countries so it's most like a small delay rather than an outright block on missile development.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:

More? I know it was expensive, but THAT expensive?

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Here are the costs for various programs in contemporary dollars:
-- Manhattan Project: $1.9 billion (source)
-- German rocket program: $3 billion (source)
-- B-29 program: $3 billion (source)
-- B-36 program: $1.4 billion (source)
-- Semi-Automatic Ground Environment program (SAGE): $10.4 billion (source)

I used SAGE as something of a PoD in a timeline once. In present day dollars, it was an $87.82 billion program that created a computerized air defense system for the United States. IBM was the prime contractor, so it make the company what it became and helped establish the modern computer industry.

Delivery systems and defenses for nuclear weapons cost far more than developing and building the weapons themselves.

I was never very good at economics. How do you calculate labor costs for slave labor?

Simon said:

The British were also working on guided weapons during the war with their Artemis air-to-air and Brakemine surface-to-air missiles, which whilst still in the experimental phase were apparently pretty successful. Turning to answer the original question I can't recall offhand how much German data contributed to British missile programmes after the war, but as the other Simon has mentioned there were already missile programmes happening in other countries so it's most like a small delay rather than an outright block on missile development.

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http://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,23040.0.html

Just Leo said:

I was never very good at economics. How do you calculate labour costs for slave labour?

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I'm guessing however much it costs to transport them to the site, guard them, keep them barely fed, and then dispose of the bodies once they've been worked to death.

PMN1 said:

http://www.secretprojects.co.uk/forum/index.php/topic,23040.0.html

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Yes I saw your thread the other day.

Currently reading through Tony Buttler and Chris Gibson's British Secret Projects - Hypersonics, Ramjets and Missiles trying to get a handle on the plethora of British guided weapons programmes in the post-war period. It's certainly an interesting time period. The major thing that strikes me is the number of projects initiated, how many competing firms there were and whether they were large enough, and if it might not have been better to combine a number of them - Sea Slug, Thunderbird and Bloodhound come to mind.

There were a few rocket programs outside of Germany, but weren't most of the efforts at guided missiles German, or copied from/inspired by German weapons? There were aerial rockets and rocket artillery, but I think cruise missiles, AAMs, and ballistic missiles only started in response to German developments.

That's not to say that someone wouldn't think of developing such systems later on, just that it seems that the focus outside of Germany was mostly on unguided rockets for use as weapons, and as a potential aircraft propulsion method.

Delta Force said:

There were a few rocket programs outside of Germany, but weren't most of the efforts at guided missiles German, or copied from/inspired by German weapons? There were aerial rockets and rocket artillery, but I think cruise missiles, AAMs, and ballistic missiles only started in response to German developments.

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No. From Siddiqi,

On October 14, 1944...[Korolev] submitted a report...on the possibility of developing...long-range missiles fueled by solid propellants. Both of these...used elements of a prewar missile named the 217, which had been the focus of work at NII-3

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The Soviets had a very active rocket program from the early 1930s onwards, with a great deal of work being done in the early 1930s in a wide range of subjects. To quote Siddiqi again, "in May 1935...RNII [the Reactive Scientific-Research Institute, the principal government research institution into rocketry at that time] was divided into four major sectors emphasizing solid-propellant missiles, [JATO/RATO-type units, also solid], launch installations for solid-propellant rockets, and liquid-propellant missiles" and "[Korolev] found himself [at about this time] leading efforts on a number of promising long-range winged missiles for military applications." In other words, they were considering vehicles similar to the A4 and A9, though not developing them to the flight level, of course. They may have been considering more advanced solid-fueled rockets of a similar capacity (and certainly were by 1944, per the above quote; with a range of 115 km, the longer-ranged of the two previously mentioned missiles would have had about half the range of the V-2). It would be rather interesting to consider an alternate timeline where RNII wasn't broken up by the Great Purge and invented composite solid rocket fuel independently from JPL (which developed it IOTL) before the German invasion, as one of the most distinct differences between Soviet and American rocket designs was the fact that the latter preferred using solid rocket boosters for high-thrust applications and in ballistic missiles, while the former preferred liquid rockets (though that's a bit beside the point).

In many respects they paralleled the Germans exactly (one reason why, to paraphrase Siddiqi once again, the Soviets only got management techniques from them), but their poorer industrial and technical base and, critically, the Great Purge (which targeted RNII heavily due to its connections with the military) delayed and dented their efforts, preventing them from developing rocket technology to that level until after the war. Nevertheless, they were fully capable of doing so and had, as demonstrated, several pre-war efforts in that general direction, which would likely have born fruit with the development of the nuclear bomb if there was no German program.

Delta Force said:

If people aren't as interested in rocketry, might aviation and jet engines receive more funding instead? How would military reconnaissance and nuclear deployment (and air defense) change without advanced rockets and missiles?

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OTL, JPL and JATO were called that to deflect from the fact that they involved rockets. (BTW, a few days ago was the anniversary of one of the first test launches in GALCIT's history.)

Workable Goblin said:

The Soviets had a very active rocket program from the early 1930s onwards, with a great deal of work being done in the early 1930s in a wide range of subjects. To quote Siddiqi again, "in May 1935...RNII [the Reactive Scientific-Research Institute, the principal government research institution into rocketry at that time] was divided into four major sectors emphasizing solid-propellant missiles, [JATO/RATO-type units, also solid], launch installations for solid-propellant rockets, and liquid-propellant missiles" and "[Korolev] found himself [at about this time] leading efforts on a number of promising long-range winged missiles for military applications." In other words, they were considering vehicles similar to the A4 and A9, though not developing them to the flight level, of course. They may have been considering more advanced solid-fueled rockets of a similar capacity (and certainly were by 1944, per the above quote; with a range of 115 km, the longer-ranged of the two previously mentioned missiles would have had about half the range of the V-2). It would be rather interesting to consider an alternate timeline where RNII wasn't broken up by the Great Purge and invented composite solid rocket fuel independently from JPL (which developed it IOTL) before the German invasion, as one of the most distinct differences between Soviet and American rocket designs was the fact that the latter preferred using solid rocket boosters for high-thrust applications and in ballistic missiles, while the former preferred liquid rockets (though that's a bit beside the point).

In many respects they paralleled the Germans exactly (one reason why, to paraphrase Siddiqi once again, the Soviets only got management techniques from them), but their poorer industrial and technical base and, critically, the Great Purge (which targeted RNII heavily due to its connections with the military) delayed and dented their efforts, preventing them from developing rocket technology to that level until after the war. Nevertheless, they were fully capable of doing so and had, as demonstrated, several pre-war efforts in that general direction, which would likely have born fruit with the development of the nuclear bomb if there was no German program.

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I knew about about Korolev's work for the group, but I didn't know the Soviets had developed things to that extent. The 1930s certainly was an interesting time for the Soviet Union, and I wonder how rocketry and other fields would have developed if not for Stalin's purges.