Count Valerian
Banned
WI: 1) China holds naval exercises in August 2015 near Taiwanese territorial waters.
2) During the exercises, a Japanese fishing vessel sails too close to the exercise area and is hit and sunk by a Chinese SSM.
3) Both Japan and Taiwan (many of the crew were Taiwanese) issue protests to China, and demand reparations.
4) China denies any wrongdoing, and declares that the 'fishing vessel' was actually a spy ship spying on their naval exercises, and that the Taiwanese have colluded with the Japanese on the matter.
5) Both Japan and Taiwan deny the Chinese accusation, and reiterate their previous demand along with demands for an international investigation.
6) The USA backs Japan and Taiwan, and calls on China to accept international mediation of the matter.
7) China refuses to accept international mediation, stating there is no need to do so in an 'obviously Chinese sphere of interest'.
8) Sensing an opportunity with the rapidly-deteriorating situation to the south, North Korea redeploys three divisions near the DMZ. South Korea responds by placing their forces on alert, while the JSDF and US Forces Japan also go on alert.
9) A Taiwanese fighter is shot down by Chinese fighters, the Chinese claiming that it strayed into Chinese airspace.
10) The US government - while neither accepting or rejecting the Chinese statement - demands that an international investigation be held into the matter and the matter of the Japanese fishing boat. However, the US Seventh Fleet puts to sea, and additional forces are dispatched to Taiwan from Guam.
11) Russia - alarmed by the deteriorating situation - attempts to convince China and North Korea to back down.
12) An electrical malfunction along the North Korean side of the DMZ leads to a fire, which in turn sets off a munitions dump, the explosion of which destroys a nearby fuel depot, which in turn starts a major fire. North Korean troops in the area believe it to be an attack, and open fire with artillery on the South Korean troops on the other side of the line. The South Koreans return fire, and this leads to the full outbreak of war.
13) Alarmed, China attempts to pullback from its hawkish stance, but it is too late. A Chinese submarine is spotted by US and Japanese destroyers in Japanese territorial waters, and after several flybys by US and Japanese helicopters the Chinese fire and damages a Japanese destroyer with a torpedo. The Japanese then proceed to sink the Chinese submarine.
14) The Chinese population goes up in flames, and China declares war on Japan. The USA declares its intent to fulfill its defense obligations to its East Asian Allies, whether it be South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan but expresses hope that the conflict may be contained to the Korean peninsula.
15) Russia declares itself neutral, but the Russian Pacific Fleet is put on alert. Alarmed, Japan reinforces its forces on Hokkaido, heightening tensions even further.
16) A preemptive Chinese attack on Taiwan sees most of the Taiwanese navy destroyed...including a pair of US submarines docked at Taipei. President Obama authorizes retaliatory strikes against the Chinese mainland, and orders long-term war plans to be made against the PRC.
How plausible is this WI? And how will the war end?
2) During the exercises, a Japanese fishing vessel sails too close to the exercise area and is hit and sunk by a Chinese SSM.
3) Both Japan and Taiwan (many of the crew were Taiwanese) issue protests to China, and demand reparations.
4) China denies any wrongdoing, and declares that the 'fishing vessel' was actually a spy ship spying on their naval exercises, and that the Taiwanese have colluded with the Japanese on the matter.
5) Both Japan and Taiwan deny the Chinese accusation, and reiterate their previous demand along with demands for an international investigation.
6) The USA backs Japan and Taiwan, and calls on China to accept international mediation of the matter.
7) China refuses to accept international mediation, stating there is no need to do so in an 'obviously Chinese sphere of interest'.
8) Sensing an opportunity with the rapidly-deteriorating situation to the south, North Korea redeploys three divisions near the DMZ. South Korea responds by placing their forces on alert, while the JSDF and US Forces Japan also go on alert.
9) A Taiwanese fighter is shot down by Chinese fighters, the Chinese claiming that it strayed into Chinese airspace.
10) The US government - while neither accepting or rejecting the Chinese statement - demands that an international investigation be held into the matter and the matter of the Japanese fishing boat. However, the US Seventh Fleet puts to sea, and additional forces are dispatched to Taiwan from Guam.
11) Russia - alarmed by the deteriorating situation - attempts to convince China and North Korea to back down.
12) An electrical malfunction along the North Korean side of the DMZ leads to a fire, which in turn sets off a munitions dump, the explosion of which destroys a nearby fuel depot, which in turn starts a major fire. North Korean troops in the area believe it to be an attack, and open fire with artillery on the South Korean troops on the other side of the line. The South Koreans return fire, and this leads to the full outbreak of war.
13) Alarmed, China attempts to pullback from its hawkish stance, but it is too late. A Chinese submarine is spotted by US and Japanese destroyers in Japanese territorial waters, and after several flybys by US and Japanese helicopters the Chinese fire and damages a Japanese destroyer with a torpedo. The Japanese then proceed to sink the Chinese submarine.
14) The Chinese population goes up in flames, and China declares war on Japan. The USA declares its intent to fulfill its defense obligations to its East Asian Allies, whether it be South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan but expresses hope that the conflict may be contained to the Korean peninsula.
15) Russia declares itself neutral, but the Russian Pacific Fleet is put on alert. Alarmed, Japan reinforces its forces on Hokkaido, heightening tensions even further.
16) A preemptive Chinese attack on Taiwan sees most of the Taiwanese navy destroyed...including a pair of US submarines docked at Taipei. President Obama authorizes retaliatory strikes against the Chinese mainland, and orders long-term war plans to be made against the PRC.
How plausible is this WI? And how will the war end?
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