WWI avoided?

Suppose that Kaiser is OK enough to continue what Bismark was doing: maintaining relations with the West and Russia. Then said no to Austria-Hungary when the assassination happened. How will the future be for AH? Crises where Germany, Russia, Italy, and GB intervenes? How will they split AH?
 
The Three Emperor's Alliance collapsed already before William II's ascension to the throne, because Austria and Russia had incompatible interests in the Balkans.

Germany would rationally probably best bet on friendship with Russia and Britain, since Russia and France were Britain's natural rivals, and AH was not an asset (in 1914, AH almost collapsed when Galicia fell to the Russians).

AH would most likely disintegrate anyway during the early 20th century. If Germany had played their cards right, they could have inherited Sudetenland and Austria, and had an alliance with Hungary, while Russia gets Galicia.
 
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