WI: Anglo French intervention in the Winter War?

Assuming the allies get a formal request for support from Finland and military access from Norway and Sweden, what is the impact of allied intervention on the course of WW2?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
The USSR declares war on France and Britain and becomes an outright ally of Nazi Germany. Which basically means that the world is royally screwed.
 

Yuelang

Banned
The USSR declares war on France and Britain and becomes an outright ally of Nazi Germany. Which basically means that the world is royally screwed.

add to that China declares for Axis while Japan fight as Allies...

a relatively better world because American entry will be pretty much focused on Europe to kick Nazis ASAP.

Yeah, but Japanese Asia of course...
 
Why would China join the axis?

Because Japan and the USSR had been fighting a quasi-war at the time. Don't think it would really matter, since the US would still disapprove of Japan's efforts to flat-out conquer China, so they'd likely be forced into co-belligerence with Germany anyway. I certainly hope so, anyways, since the alternative would basically allow a state just as vile as the Nazis to get away with their crimes.
 

Yuelang

Banned
Because Japan and the USSR had been fighting a quasi-war at the time. Don't think it would really matter, since the US would still disapprove of Japan's efforts to flat-out conquer China, so they'd likely be forced into co-belligerence with Germany anyway. I certainly hope so, anyways, since the alternative would basically allow a state just as vile as the Nazis to get away with their crimes.

lets saud China-Germany friendship is maintained and Chiang explicitly think that this is a good day to ally with USSR and expel Japan from mainland...

And Japan basically get an agreement with Britain and France to have free hand in China (presenting this as they're the one getting mandate of heaven, even if basically bullshiting, will likely to be accepted because they are busy fighting joint Nazi-Commie invasions and another asian colonial power is not quite such harm if they guarantee Indochina and other European colonies in Asia in return)

caught between rock and hard places, US will most likely tell "screw China" and go fight against Nazi Commies in Europe...

oh well, at least until those two bad guys are finished, Westerners will definitely try to persuade japan for much better treatment of Chinese, but that's it.
 
If the Allies intervened in the winter war then we would see a super axis with vast resources. It would basically end with either a stale mate plus cold war or ending with earth a radioactive slap heap....I prefer our time line it dosent have as much Nazi-Soviet alliances and all....
 
The way I see it, allied intervention in Finland would precipitate operation pike which would decapitate the soviet war machine.

Which if happend would butterfly into an easy Nazi victory. I doubt the allies "winning" a war with the soviets anyway. It would end in somewhat of a stale mate like in WWI. Which is a dream only in Hitler's wettest of dreams.
 
Hmm. So much depends on exactly what the timing is - how quickly do the allies arrive and how long do they stay?

I think the Allied plans to invade Norway would never be made if they are fighting in Finland. Almost certainly that means the Allies are slower to respond to the German invasion of Norway, might that actually help (better relations with Norway early on meaning there is better coordination and a better impression is given to the USA) or does it slow them down leading to Norway being another swift Nazi victory?

Might the Allied help be enough to allow the Finns to actually win outright? I'm not sure. The British and French are gearing up still, so what they can send will be limited. On the other hand, getting stuck in a damaging war with the West is exactly what Stalin didn't want. He may be very quick to seek peace, even if the military help the Allies send doesn't change much on the ground.

I do not think that this will lead to Germany and the Soviets being pushed together. Hitler is still absolutely set on attacking the Soviet Union. Indeed, if the Allies are at war with the Soviets, this may encourage him to think that the start of Barberossa will be enough to get the British to see that they and Germany are really on the same side, and thus should result in a sudden outbreak of peace.

Still, this could have gigantic butterfly effects - not only before Barberossa kicks off, but after the war itself is over.

fasquardon
 
I do not think that this will lead to Germany and the Soviets being pushed together. Hitler is still absolutely set on attacking the Soviet Union. Indeed, if the Allies are at war with the Soviets, this may encourage him to think that the start of Barberossa will be enough to get the British to see that they and Germany are really on the same side, and thus should result in a sudden outbreak of peace.

Though this is not guaranteed to happen, it is possible...and it would probably work.


TO answer the OP, Pike happens, the USSR drills more oil on the other side of the Caspian, the USSR probably accepts German assistance in defending their oil fields with oil as payment, and then the Wallies NEED the US. However, there is no guarentee the US goes in or even France falls. Germany might not go for the Sicklecut in this timeline.
 
Has anyone ever done a TL with an enduring Nazi-Soviet alliance fighting against a Western Alliance? I've always thought it would be exceedingly interesting.

fasquardon
 
Alternatively

The USSR declares war on France and Britain and becomes an outright ally of Nazi Germany. Which basically means that the world is royally screwed.

Or: Russia backs down and cancels the Winter War in '39. Stalin was not too keen to go to war with either the West or Nazi Germany. Finnland gets an (albeit brief) respite at this point.

In '40 though, after the fall of France, Russia may again give it a go, pretty much the same way Italy then went for an opportunistic land grab at that point. But I doubt Stalin will declare War then either but rather try political pressure. I.e. ask again for the border region of Finland and tests if the Britain is desperate enough at that point to renign on Finland and throw them under the bus to keep Russia an (unfriendly) neutral. How Churchill would react is open to debate, but my money is on begrudgingly accept what he can not change and Russia getting the border regions of Finland without a fight then.

This butterflies away a lot of experience the red army gained with regards to winter warfare as well as generally finding its own ass without written instructions (approved by comrade political commissar). The red army thus performs even more abysmal during the opening stages of Barbarossa. Moscow still may not fall due to logistics putting a cap on what the Wehrmacht can reach. Or maybe it does, who knows. But at the least, the Wehrmacht gets a better start into Russia. But I doubt Russia will call quits even then and continue to fight. And as such Germany will not be able to force a peace on Russia in '41 and therefore (as OTL) bite off more than it can chew with attacking Russia.

British-Russian relations though remain soured and there may be less cooperation. Lend-Lase may still happen but Stalin will trust the West even less and the various conferences later in the war may run slightly different. Stalin still demands a "2nd Front" but less strongly as he assumes Britain and the US are not to be relied on in any case and probably will leave him hanging anyhow, no matter how much he asks. The West still will launch Overlord in '44 though, exactly because of this mutual distrust, not wishing to see Stalin roll his tanks all the way to Paris.

This more pronounced distrust may butterfly away things like the joint "Unconditional Surrender" demand as neither side trusts the other enough to stick to it. The late stage of the war may see more politicking as the West and Russia both fear the other could be willing to accept a seperate peace from a desperate Germany. Hitler may not go for either anyhow, but he may get actually killed as military resistance to him could be stronger in TTL. Without the demand of unconditional surrender to both the West and the Soviets, more German generals may see an 'out' of the war in disposing Hitler and coming to terms with the West. A new military junta may thus as early as '44 (after the Allies land in France) take over, throw everything they have at the Russians and accept whatever terms the Western Allies may pose. I.e. an unconditional surrender in the West while keeping as much out of Stalin's hands as possible.

How the West and Stalin then come terms with this situation is an interesting question. I doubt they will go to war with each other when the Wehrmacht finally surrenders (because British and US armies finally have reached the Eastern Front) but I guess Stalin will end up with less of Germany than in OTL. The cold war may start quicker with an Iron Curtain a bit further to the West.
 
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Driftless

Donor
You need to replace Chamberlain first. He waffled and dithered away several of the OTL options and timetables. - Several with good reason...

The primary goal and target of the Anglo-French was the Swedish Iron ore mines. The Relief of Finland & the later activity to secure Narvik were for-all-intents-and-purposes, cover stories to seize the Swedish mines. If the secondary goal was achieved - that was good, but controlling the iron ore was seen as the critical strategic element.
 
-Russia joins the Axis
-Germany just got access to vital war material along with near guaranteed access to material from Spain, Turkey, and other neutrals
-Russia likely to conquer Iran, Afghanistan, and OTL pakistan with an attempt to invade India. They might also try for Iraq and Kuwait.
-Rommel may be reinforced at El-Alamein from a Red Army group coming the other direction
-Germany sees T-34s, likes them, still develops it's designs with that inspiration per OTL
-SVT-40s may inspire Axis small arms development to a Gewehr 43 or SKS, possibly influenced by the FAL49 prototype lost in Belgium in 1940.
-Heavy industry bombings in Soviet Russia would probably require B-32s or major acceleration of B-29s, possibly out of Aleutian bases on one-way trips then landing in the UK.
-World War II will last longer and the fighting will be *very* ugly, it may last into the late 1940s, and without a Stalingrad equivalent there are major butterflies in the event of an equivalent to the Cuban Missile Crisis later
-Nukes will hit Germany, Russia, and Japan. Assuming Italy falls as OTL (even then it may take a year or more than OTL), Normandy could be radically altered by th egg presence of a few Red Army divisions
-Both sides would be in danger of massive debt overruns into the late 40s and that might cause the war to end atypically
 

Dorozhand

Banned
If the allies were willing to watch pitifully as Poland was ripped apart even after they had declared war, what suggests that they had the cajones to stand up for Finland in a meaningful way while antagonizing the USSR? They had a border with Germany and were in a position to open up the western front to help save Poland, and they were still too indecisive to do that.
 
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Assuming the allies get a formal request for support from Finland and military access from Norway and Sweden, what is the impact of allied intervention on the course of WW2?
Why would Norway and Sweden give military access? At that point, the Soviet Union is supposed to be pals with the Reich, and Norway and Sweden are surely both trying very hard not to offend the Reich?...
 
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