WI/AHC: Māori Prime Minister of New Zealand

Fubart Solman

In the spirit of all the NZ threads that are popping up as late, here's a challenge/what if for you guys and gals: With a PoD on or after January 1st, 1900, have the government be led by a Māori prime minister. Alternatively, if you have NZ become a republic, have a popularly elected Māori president (even if the position is relatively ceremonial with political power still mainly residing with the PM). Preferably, the PM would be a historical figure and not a made up person. For the purposes of this, I would define Māori as someone who has significant Māori heritage and self identifies as Māori or partially Māori.

What would change in NZ? Potentially increased usage of the Māori language, full acceptance of the Treaty of Waitangi settlements, as ideas to consider.
 
Concured

Concured

Winston Peters was Deputy from 96 - 98 , so maybe a sudden loss of Bolger/Shipley makes him acting prime minister and then possibly full time (Maybe a sucession fuckup within National).
But i don't think he's the one you're looking for as someone who fully identifies as Māori...
 

Fubart Solman

Concured said:
Winston Peters was Deputy from 96 - 98 , so maybe a sudden loss of Bolger/Shipley makes him acting prime minister and then possibly full time (Maybe a sucession fuckup within National).
But i don't think he's the one you're looking for as someone who fully identifies as Māori...
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Peters could work; he's part Māori and ran in one of the Māori electoral districts early in his career.
 
Hrvatskiwi

Hrvatskiwi

This is, in my opinion, very difficult. It's only really possible from the 1980s onwards. Even then, the only Maori who really has ever had a chance at PM has been Winston Peters, who I think had a peak favoured PM rating of 20%. Plus, he's a bit of an uncle tom. I feel like there is a widespread ignorance of the degree of colonial-style paternalism (sometimes even outright hostility) from the right-wing populist sentiments that dominate this country.
 
Maeglin

Maeglin

(Three New Zealand threads? Yikes!)

You have several options. Curiously, most of them are from the Right, not the Left.

1. Have a way of getting Sir Apirana Ngata to the leadership of the United (formerly Liberal) Party after Ward dies in 1930. The actual choice, George Forbes, was a mind-numbing incompetent, and Ngata, prior to a corruption scandal in 1934 was well-respected. He'd either get rolled by the scandal or by a crushing election defeat though - that Government was incredibly unpopular.

2. Something happens to Rob Muldoon, and Ben Couch (very conservative) gets the National leadership over liberals like McLay or centrists like Bolger. Has same problems Muldoon has, without the charisma.

3. To get Winston Peters as PM, you need him to stay with National. Otherwise, all you're going to get is him as acting PM. If he stays with National, and doesn't manage to irritate everyone (this involves a personality transplant), he has a vague shot at being the "traditionalist" successor to Bolger, rather than the more neo-liberal Shipley.

4. Have Nanaia Mahuta win the current Labour leadership contest, and have her win 2017.
 
flippikat

flippikat

What about a TL where Norman Kirk's health is slightly better, and the 3rd Labour Government is re-elected in 1975 - Maori Affairs minister Matiu Rata gets promoted to deputy PM in a cabinet reshuffle during their second term, then when Kirk dies after winning the 1978 election, Rata takes his place as P.M.?

Is that possible?
 
Julius Vogel

Julius Vogel

Paula Bennett 2020. National loses 2017 to loose Labour-Green coalition, Key resigns Bennett takes over and wins 2020 after the Green vote implodes.
 
Maeglin

Maeglin

flippikat said:
What about a TL where Norman Kirk's health is slightly better, and the 3rd Labour Government is re-elected in 1975 - Maori Affairs minister Matiu Rata gets promoted to deputy PM in a cabinet reshuffle during their second term, then when Kirk dies after winning the 1978 election, Rata takes his place as P.M.?

Is that possible?
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Oh, it's certainly possible. It's just that even with longer-lived Kirk, the two most obvious successors (Bill Rowling and Bob Tizard) aren't going anywhere: you need to give Rata more caucus prominence.
 

PCBS767

Julius Vogel said:
Paula Bennett 2020. National loses 2017 to loose Labour-Green coalition, Key resigns Bennett takes over and wins 2020 after the Green vote implodes.
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Do you really think Paula Bennett would win the national leadership, and if so do you think her national party could win?

Also, what do you mean green vote implodes? Do you have a particular reason why?
 
flippikat

flippikat

Maeglin said:
Oh, it's certainly possible. It's just that even with longer-lived Kirk, the two most obvious successors (Bill Rowling and Bob Tizard) aren't going anywhere: you need to give Rata more caucus prominence.
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It's possible that Rata may deliver some good results if he stays on as Maori Affairs Minister after the '75 election - that would help. It's easy to imagine Bob Tizard blowing his top over something to lower his leadership chances, but even if he does assume the leadership I'm not convinced that he's appealing to the electorate.

If Rata does well in his portfolio, maybe he could bide his time - gamble on the chance that Kirk's replacement will lose in 1978 or 1981 (depending on when Kirk dies) and that Rata can be this timeline's leader of the 4th Labour Government.
 
Maeglin

Maeglin

flippikat said:
It's possible that Rata may deliver some good results if he stays on as Maori Affairs Minister after the '75 election - that would help. It's easy to imagine Bob Tizard blowing his top over something to lower his leadership chances, but even if he does assume the leadership I'm not convinced that he's appealing to the electorate.

If Rata does well in his portfolio, maybe he could bide his time - gamble on the chance that Kirk's replacement will lose in 1978 or 1981 (depending on when Kirk dies) and that Rata can be this timeline's leader of the 4th Labour Government.
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Your latter suggestion gave me an idea. What if, instead of tinkering around with Kirk, we (1) avoid the Colin Moyle scandal, so David Lange never gets elected, (2) Rata stays with Labour, and (3) Rata falls in with Roger Douglas and company, and takes the place of OTL Lange? I'm not sure what Rata thought of Rogernomics, but as the majority of the Fourth Labour Government kept its head down, perhaps this would work. Rata would certainly beat Muldoon in 1984 (though to be fair, Bill Rowling would have beaten Muldoon in that election).
 
flippikat

flippikat

Maeglin said:
Your latter suggestion gave me an idea. What if, instead of tinkering around with Kirk, we (1) avoid the Colin Moyle scandal, so David Lange never gets elected, (2) Rata stays with Labour, and (3) Rata falls in with Roger Douglas and company, and takes the place of OTL Lange? I'm not sure what Rata thought of Rogernomics, but as the majority of the Fourth Labour Government kept its head down, perhaps this would work. Rata would certainly beat Muldoon in 1984 (though to be fair, Bill Rowling would have beaten Muldoon in that election).
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Actually that's a good solution - I'm not even sure whether Rata would need to fall-in with Douglas to win in 1984. Muldoon had become so devisive that Labour had a great chance regardless.

I originally thought Rata would need a little more time as a minister to raise his profile to potential Labour leader, but this could be done just as well if they find themselves in opposition after the 1975 election.

If the Douglas faction does get Rata onside, I suspect Rata might stand-up to Roger Douglas earlier than Lange did in OTL - particularly if he catches wind of what quick reforms mean to the regions.
 
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Simon

Simon

Maeglin said:
Have a way of getting Sir Apirana Ngata...
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He was going to be my suggestion as well. How did New Zealand government run during that period - if he was Deputy Prime Minister and the Prime Minister died would he become Prime Minister until the party elected a new leader, or would the party grandees have a quick discussion amongst themselves and their choice become the new Prime Minister much as it used to happen in the UK?
 
Maeglin

Maeglin

Simon said:
He was going to be my suggestion as well. How did New Zealand government run during that period - if he was Deputy Prime Minister and the Prime Minister died would he become Prime Minister until the party elected a new leader, or would the party grandees have a quick discussion amongst themselves and their choice become the new Prime Minister much as it used to happen in the UK?
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The position of Deputy Prime Minister didn't formally exist until 1949 - before that you're dealing with informal Acting Prime Minister set-ups. The Acting PM became the actual PM on a short term basis in 1906 and 1925.

I made an error in the above post: Ward didn't die in office, he died about a month afterwards. So I suppose if you can get a slightly healthier and lucid Ward to favour Ngata over Forbes (Forbes got it because he was Liberal leader prior to Ward getting it back), or just get the United MPs to realise how useless Forbes was, Ngata's got a shot.
 
Maeglin

Maeglin

According to wikipedia, he was ranked third in cabinet, and was acting deputy several times (presumably filling in for Forbes, who was filling in for Ward).

So, yes, have Ward not quit just before dying, get Forbes out of the equation (or even find an excuse to have him out the country when Ward dies), and you get Ngata as Prime Minister.
 

Fubart Solman

Maeglin said:
According to wikipedia, he was ranked third in cabinet, and was acting deputy several times (presumably filling in for Forbes, who was filling in for Ward).

So, yes, have Ward not quit just before dying, get Forbes out of the equation (or even find an excuse to have him out the country when Ward dies), and you get Ngata as Prime Minister.
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Since it seems possible to get Ngata as PM, what would the popular reaction be to having a Māori PM in 1930?
 
Maeglin

Maeglin

Fubart Solman said:
Since it seems possible to get Ngata as PM, what would the popular reaction be to having a Māori PM in 1930?
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I think, long-term, it would damage Maori in politics. Ngata was well-respected, but that respect wouldn't last in the context of the Great Depression (imagine, say, if Herbert Hoover had been black), and the Opposition would leap onto the corruption scandal, where he was found to have been favouring certain Waikato tribes.

I think the UK would be slightly bemused at one of their Dominions having a "Native" Prime Minister, Australia (where Aborigines couldn't vote until 1967) even more so. Heaven help Ngata if he tries communicating with the South Africans. But in New Zealand itself, Maori at that point had the whole noble savage stereotype going: there wouldn't be too much animosity, up until the Depression started to bite.
 

Fubart Solman

Maeglin said:
I think, long-term, it would damage Maori in politics. Ngata was well-respected, but that respect wouldn't last in the context of the Great Depression (imagine, say, if Herbert Hoover had been black), and the Opposition would leap onto the corruption scandal, where he was found to have been favouring certain Waikato tribes.

I think the UK would be slightly bemused at one of their Dominions having a "Native" Prime Minister, Australia (where Aborigines couldn't vote until 1967) even more so. Heaven help Ngata if he tries communicating with the South Africans. But in New Zealand itself, Maori at that point had the whole noble savage stereotype going: there wouldn't be too much animosity, up until the Depression started to bite.
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Interestingly enough, the US almost had a Native American President (Charles Curtis) during the start of the depression. At least South Africa hadn't gone off the deep end completely at that point. You still make a fair point though; he would've been seen as an oddity at best and probably wouldn't have done well on the world stage regardless of the depression and his scandal.
 
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