Kerensky's Russia
- Thread starter E. Burke
- Start date
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Your title and OP don't quite match up like you might think. Regarding the former, the best way to have Kerensky take power in Russia would be avoiding the Kornilov Affair. The latter... well, that can go a number of ways, depending on what you're talking about.
Chernov's Russia
If the provisional government defeated the Bolsheviks then they were supposed to turn over power the Russian Constituent Assembly http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Constituent_Assembly This would produce a government dominated by the SR's with Chernov not Kerensky in charge (though there is a better than even chance Chernov would give Kerensky a ministry)
If the provisional government defeated the Bolsheviks then they were supposed to turn over power the Russian Constituent Assembly http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Constituent_Assembly This would produce a government dominated by the SR's with Chernov not Kerensky in charge (though there is a better than even chance Chernov would give Kerensky a ministry)
I agree. The White forces aren't going to go away either, so there's still going to be bloodletting even with the Bolsheviks quelled.
If they don't stupidly continue the war against Germany, that can by them time to implement reforms, If the Bolesheviks try to pull any crap they can be scattered to the four winds just like in OTL. The provisional government just needs to be much smarter to last, perhaps Milyukov can not become a major leader in the government.
E. Burke
Banned
The won't be gone either. You can't just sue press them. It might actually lead a communist movement cause the repression would unify it. They might be more democratic.
E. Burke
Banned
The Bolsheviks had the one elections to the only (semi) democratic institution in Russia, the soviets
The Bolsheviks become a footnote in history. Lenin and Trotsky become divisive figures within the Western Left, with some claiming that if only they had won Socialism would have triumphed, and others claiming that their failure proves that Marx was right and Socialism cannot triumph in underdeveloped countries. Even so Marxism-Leninism doesn't become more than a fringe of a fringe movement.
I doubt there were no failed states in the world before 1917. No examples come to mind right now, but other posters probably know of several.
In general, I agree - Kerensky was not very competent and won't hold power for long. But the end result is unlikely to be a warlord period or an actual failed state; probably closer to 1900s Ottoman Empire than modern day Somalia. The "warlord" period in Russia IOTL was during the Civil War itself - that is, it started after the Kerensky government's fall and the partial Bolshevik takeover.
In general, I agree - Kerensky was not very competent and won't hold power for long. But the end result is unlikely to be a warlord period or an actual failed state; probably closer to 1900s Ottoman Empire than modern day Somalia. The "warlord" period in Russia IOTL was during the Civil War itself - that is, it started after the Kerensky government's fall and the partial Bolshevik takeover.
He'd probably bungle on until a right wing semi-fascist dictatorship comes to power and also bungles along semi-kleptocraticaly. The soviet moment will be thought of as yet another failed revolution, giving people far more hope to how it could have been, but also probably hurting the revolutionary left in the short term. Long term I'd expect a more Luxemburgist revolutionary left to emerge, because she's really the clearly more memorable figure if both her and Lenin are dead failures. Kerensky was really seminaly incompetent though, so he's probably not long for this world in any event. Another idea is probably eventually You'd see a Kadet take over and a marginalization of the SRs into a semi-permanent opposition with no real power or influence.
eliphas8 has it right, the only long-term alternative to Kerensky being overthrown by Bolsheviks is being overthrown by the right-wing forces. However, if Kerensky had been a different sort of man, I think he could have held onto power. His exact motives have always been sort of mysterious from my perspective; in my opinion it seems that he was angling to become a populist dictator, but lacked the perspective, wisdom, and most importantly the ability to inspire fear (in the Machiavellian sense) to keep the nation in line during the critical first months of his rule. Kerensky's oratory was from all reports remarkable, and he did have charisma, but unfortunately his chief talents seemed to have been reckless intrigue and alienating people who should have been staunch allies.
I've been reading a lot on the October Revolution and the subsequent Civil war for the past few month, and what strikes me was just how badly the Provisional Government botched things from the moment they took over. Things were not necessarily heading towards a state of unraveling initially; it took a lot of bad decisions made in a short period of time to bring things to the crisis that allowed the Bolsheviks to launch their coup. If the Provisional Government had made even one good decision during the whole chain of events, the Soviet Union would likely never have been formed, and there was a good chance Russia could have come out of the period far less damaged. There would have been other big issues to confront, in regards to education, healthcare, land reform, and autonomy for the various ethnic groups, but I think they were resolvable in the long term.
Keep in mind, the Bolsheviks under Lenin managed to keep control of the central zone of Russia despite their initial incompetence and utter brutality to the locals, and by doing so were able to reconquer a good 90% of the territory of the Russian Empire within half a decade. It is not hard to imagine a group with the same determination but better methods could have taken everything back except for Congress Poland at a fraction of the cost in the OTL.
I have been working on a timeline that focuses on a military junta that works with elements of the civilian establishment to establish a "Unity" government. Through imperfect, their relative competence allows Russia to work through 1917-19 with far less fighting and disruption of Russia's social and economic structure. It would have major implications for how Russia handles the run up to WWII. It still has a lot of work needed before it's ready for posting however.
I've been reading a lot on the October Revolution and the subsequent Civil war for the past few month, and what strikes me was just how badly the Provisional Government botched things from the moment they took over. Things were not necessarily heading towards a state of unraveling initially; it took a lot of bad decisions made in a short period of time to bring things to the crisis that allowed the Bolsheviks to launch their coup. If the Provisional Government had made even one good decision during the whole chain of events, the Soviet Union would likely never have been formed, and there was a good chance Russia could have come out of the period far less damaged. There would have been other big issues to confront, in regards to education, healthcare, land reform, and autonomy for the various ethnic groups, but I think they were resolvable in the long term.
Keep in mind, the Bolsheviks under Lenin managed to keep control of the central zone of Russia despite their initial incompetence and utter brutality to the locals, and by doing so were able to reconquer a good 90% of the territory of the Russian Empire within half a decade. It is not hard to imagine a group with the same determination but better methods could have taken everything back except for Congress Poland at a fraction of the cost in the OTL.
I have been working on a timeline that focuses on a military junta that works with elements of the civilian establishment to establish a "Unity" government. Through imperfect, their relative competence allows Russia to work through 1917-19 with far less fighting and disruption of Russia's social and economic structure. It would have major implications for how Russia handles the run up to WWII. It still has a lot of work needed before it's ready for posting however.
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A Chernov led Russia would have caused most of the forces that we like to call the Whites to rise up against them. However the Whites still have the same problem of being a very loose coalition. There is some possibility here for a very long and very complicated Civil War.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
My thoughts here -- the best way for Kerensky to hold power for even the short term is to avoid the Kornilov Affair; and the best way to do that is to keep Kerensky from (idiotically) firing Alexei Brusilov. Which, if Kerensky is still destined to collapse at some point, does pave the way for an interesting alternative...
My thoughts here -- the best way for Kerensky to hold power for even the short term is to avoid the Kornilov Affair; and the best way to do that is to keep Kerensky from (idiotically) firing Alexei Brusilov. Which, if Kerensky is still destined to collapse at some point, does pave the way for an interesting alternative...
I wouldn't say destined, but I think he's a rank incompetent at actual governance who shouldn't have been let near the job by anyone in the SRs.
A lot of things needs to go right for Kerensky if he is to survive or even prevent the Bolsheviks from gaining power.
My take on it would be something like this:
1) The July Days go even more wrong for the Bolsheviks as Lenin is assassinated whilst attempting to flee Petrograd. Weakened by the failed demonstrations and without the uniting leadership of Lenin, the Bolsheviks recede to the shadows. Kerensky doesn't cock up massively by handing out arms to radicalized workers.
2 ) Either Vladimir Lvov is run over by a stray railway carriage or simply decides against whatever made him go to Kornilov and present his strange suggestions to him. As a result Kornilov doesn't march on the Petrograd Soviet, avoiding the Kornilov Affair. Another way to solve this would be for Kerensky to keep Brusilov (which would help a lot in any case) as John Fredrick Parker suggested, but I should think that this would have to depend on the Kerensky Offensive being a lot more successful - which would require some quite larger butterflies, no?
3 ) Without Lenin, the highly centralized Bolsheviks start to disintegrate as the various lieutenants begin squabbling among themselves for control over the party.
4) ????
Events to come would heavily centre around the issue of ending/continuing the war, the Bolshevik menace (do they attempt a coup anyways?), Kerensky's relation with the military and handling the issue of land reform. Personally, I have a feeling that Russia needed peace desperately, but I dunno if Kerensky isn't too downright stupid/stubborn to seek it.
My take on it would be something like this:
1) The July Days go even more wrong for the Bolsheviks as Lenin is assassinated whilst attempting to flee Petrograd. Weakened by the failed demonstrations and without the uniting leadership of Lenin, the Bolsheviks recede to the shadows. Kerensky doesn't cock up massively by handing out arms to radicalized workers.
2 ) Either Vladimir Lvov is run over by a stray railway carriage or simply decides against whatever made him go to Kornilov and present his strange suggestions to him. As a result Kornilov doesn't march on the Petrograd Soviet, avoiding the Kornilov Affair. Another way to solve this would be for Kerensky to keep Brusilov (which would help a lot in any case) as John Fredrick Parker suggested, but I should think that this would have to depend on the Kerensky Offensive being a lot more successful - which would require some quite larger butterflies, no?
3 ) Without Lenin, the highly centralized Bolsheviks start to disintegrate as the various lieutenants begin squabbling among themselves for control over the party.
4) ????
Events to come would heavily centre around the issue of ending/continuing the war, the Bolshevik menace (do they attempt a coup anyways?), Kerensky's relation with the military and handling the issue of land reform. Personally, I have a feeling that Russia needed peace desperately, but I dunno if Kerensky isn't too downright stupid/stubborn to seek it.
Staying on the defensive against the Germans is a necessary requirement. Russia just needs to hang on and tie down the German forces in the East until the Western Front crumbles. They can even continue offensive operations against the Ottomans if they want to, but the 1917-vintage Russian Army is no match for the forces of Ober Ost.
Without Lenin, the rest of the Bolshevik leaders will eagerly participate to a socialist Soviet coalition government together with SRs, Left SRs and rest of the socialist factions that will take power democratically after the Constituent Assembly elections like they originally wanted to do in OTL before Lenin persuaded them to adopt a different course of action.