Stalingrad taken - then what ?

Magnum · Apr 27, 2014

On August the 29th, the 4th Panzer Army launched a strong offensive against the salient held by the 62nd and 64th Soviet armies. The German 6th army was ordered to detach mobile units from its Volga corridor in order to complete the encirclement, but these were held up for 3 days due to heavy soviet attacks from the north, thus allowing the two armies to make a fighting retreat towards Stalingrad.

What if they did* manage to close, and hold, the pocket ? Stalingrad would have fallen afterwards in a matter of days probably, but then what ?

* - as to the how they manage to do this - say its by a slight re-allocation of forces before the push across the Don, e.g. one panzer division detached from 4th Panzer to 6th Army. 4th Panzer's attack was already overkill, causing huge traffic jams as they struck south across the Don and then swung north-east (this would mean they would presumably be in a position to launch the above mentioned offensive perhaps 1 or 2 days earlier), whilst 6th barely had enough forces for the job (that 1 extra PzDiv should enable them to both hold the corridor and strike south)

ChazMo · Apr 27, 2014

After this, the Germans are going to go for the Caucasus oil fields. Theoretically, they can take this - Soviet defences were minimal at the foot of the region. A harder ask will be reaching Baku, over some really nasty terrain and with the preposterously overstretched supply capabilities already at their disposal. It's difficult to assess how critical an acquisition this will prove in the long run. The Red Army will almost certainly execute a program of self-sabotage (I believe they did this IOTL), destroying refineries and roads in an effort to render the region's facilities as useless to the Reich as possible.

A massive Soviet counteroffensive is inevitable, and the Germans are additionally vulnerable as a consequence of the weak Hungarian and Romanian detachments they were forced to employ to cover their flanks. Although this may be delayed a few months if Germany plays its logistical cards right (a hard ask, if real world performance is anything to go by), Nazi forces will be in full flight by the end of the year.

The problem with Stalingrad is that it could hardly pass for a logical objective. So much was stacked against the Germans from the outset as to outweigh any possible fruits reaped from a successful operation.

Magnum · Apr 27, 2014

ChazMo said:
A massive Soviet counteroffensive is inevitable, and the Germans are additionally vulnerable as a consequence of the weak Hungarian and Romanian detachments they were forced to employ to cover their flanks. Although this may be delayed a few months if Germany plays its logistical cards right (a hard ask, if real world performance is anything to go by), Nazi forces will be in full flight by the end of the year.

OTOH, they would have time to clear out the Soviet bridgeheads and dig in, as well as establish an operational reserve of panzers and motorized infantry with which to counterattack where necessary. Therefor, I'm not as convinced that TTL's Uranus and Saturn would be capable of breaking through before years end.

ChazMo · Apr 27, 2014

Magnum said:
OTOH, they would have time to clear out the Soviet bridgeheads and dig in, as well as establish an operational reserve of panzers and motorized infantry with which to counterattack where necessary. Therefor, I'm not as convinced that TTL's Uranus and Saturn would be capable of breaking through before years end.

They're going to really struggle to hold off the Soviet onslaught. Seriously, it's going to be massive, with reserves allocated from out east.

Emperor Casey · Apr 27, 2014

ChazMo said:
They're going to really struggle to hold off the Soviet onslaught. Seriously, it's going to be massive, with reserves allocated from out east.

But with the city taken and (presumably with no where near OTL destruction) they have a better defensive position along the Volga River. Plus with air forces able to concentrate on what is going on across the river they may be more likely to detect the buildup and respond to it.

But digging in isn't the best defense against Soviet attacks. A fluid defense it better, and with the Panzer reserves not tied down in street fighting and the like there are more forces to counter soviet strikes

kalamona · Apr 27, 2014

ChazMo said:
They're going to really struggle to hold off the Soviet onslaught. Seriously, it's going to be massive, with reserves allocated from out east.

Right after this, i think, there is a good chance, that Stalingrad could not be reinforced (OTL it was also a matter of... days?) and the german forces could take it quite easily.
Thats a net a big boon to the germans, no costly siege, fairly intact forces, now recuperating, but most importantly - not pinned to the city!
The 4th army wil lstill try to struggle trough the caucasus, but that would be a struggle i think, at least, in this season, for sure.

The soviets have a disaster on their sides, southern LL route could (and probably would) distrupted, eastern lines too, caucasus practicalyl cut off (well, not in reality, but if i remember correctly the rr routes, one levele above the distrupted case).

Still, question is, what would the germans do with the dangerous haungarian, romanian, italian sectors. If they strenghten those sectors with aviable formations not needed near stalingrad or the volga, they could (well, have a chance, "best" would be to send those troops the farthest possible from any possible counterattack and moscow, that would mean volga line, caucasus, black sea shore), defeat any counterattacks like mars... maybe.

Still, its the same old game, they do not have many room for errors. In this situation, they gained some room (no losses during the siege and the whole army not pinned to a single point) but they still cannot afford serious blunders .

aktarian · Apr 28, 2014

kalamona said:
Still, question is, what would the germans do with the dangerous haungarian, romanian, italian sectors. If they strenghten those sectors with aviable formations not needed near stalingrad or the volga, they could (well, have a chance, "best" would be to send those troops the farthest possible from any possible counterattack and moscow, that would mean volga line, caucasus, black sea shore), defeat any counterattacks like mars... maybe.

Still, its the same old game, they do not have many room for errors. In this situation, they gained some room (no losses during the siege and the whole army not pinned to a single point) but they still cannot afford serious blunders .

But these flanks woldn't be so dangerous because there would be plenty of German forces available. OTL 6th Army was bled white in Stalingrad and once advance started to stall Paulus had to get fresh forces to continue advance. Since there were no fresh forces available elsewhere he had to start taking them from flanks and 4th ary.

If this doesn't happen then 6th can take care of its flanks and keep large enough reserves to coutner any soviet ove. Remember, OTL Soviets launched several counter attacks that were handily beaten back before figuring they need to strike further away from the city.

NORGCO · Apr 28, 2014

Magnum said:
)

Depends on how much taking Stalingrad makes it possible to cut the flow of fuel from the Caucasus to the Red Army. There is a comment by JFC Fuller - in "Great Battles of the Western World and their Influence upon History, Vol.3" - that taking Stalingrad and pushing east would sever the supply line completely and doom the Russian Army.

On the other hand since no one else ever seems to mention this as a factor perhaps there is a logic flaw. Or the 'and the area east of it' was over ambitious.

Did the Germans think in these terms?

Preventing a Soviet counterattack by cutting off their fuel BEFORE making the long, dangerous drive south seems so sane and sensible that I can see Hitler shooting anyone who suggested it 'Just because!"

von Adler · Apr 28, 2014

If the 6. Armee is not engaged in Stalingrad, it can hold a large part of the line, meaning that the Italians, Hungarians and Romanians does not need to hold fronts as wide. Also, all those allies had Soviet bridgeheads on the west side of the Don facing them, from which the Soviets launched their offensives.

If Stalingrad is taken, the Germans can help their allies destroy those bridgeheads.

Also, with the 6. Armee not engaged in offensive operations, the supply situation should be better, allowing deliveries of ammuntion and AT weapons for the minor allies' armies.

So, they will each cover a shorter front, with the river in front of them without Soviet bridgeheads and their supply and AT weapon situation will be better.

The Soviets might very well invest more in Operation Mars rather than launch Operation Uranus in this situation.

Julian · Apr 28, 2014

German forces are wasted defending the Kotluban region, in the Caucasus, and trying to take Astrakhan. The Germans were distinctly ignorant of potential Soviet threats along the Don.

Athelstane · Apr 28, 2014

Then what?

This.

Magnum · Apr 28, 2014

Julian said:
German forces are wasted defending the Kotluban region, in the Caucasus, and trying to take Astrakhan. The Germans were distinctly ignorant of potential Soviet threats along the Don.

With all due respect, I would disagree.

Kotluban
From what I read about Kotluban, it goes something like this:

The Germans held a series of hills, which gave them a commanding view of the flat area north of them. Soviet formations facing them were extremely vulnerable to artillery and air attack, and had to engage multiple lines of prepared defences with only frontal assaults.

OTL, this had predictable results (to quote the often-revered Glantz):

David Glantz said:
Beginning in late August, continuing in September and into October the Soviets launch four offensive operations collectively known as the Kotluban Operations, named after the village of Kotluban, nestled in the broad steppe region northwest of Stalingrad. In those operations the Soviets commit between two and four armies in near suicidal attacks against the German northern flank.

...

The Soviets suffered appalling casualties at the battle of Kotluban, both in terms of personnel and in terms of tanks...

So basically the Soviets threw away 200k men and only achieved pinning down Paulus' tanks, preventing them from entering Stalingrad...

If the Soviets chose to make this the battle of their choice, they sure aren't going to do themselves any favors.

Caucasus
As you probably know, Axis casualties in the Caucasus were comparatively light, and often there was little fighting as logistical difficulties hampered the advance, whilst the Soviets often conducted a fighting retreat.

What I expect to happen is that the Italian Alpine divisions would be transferred to the area, and some German formations would be moved north. Presumably, actual German formations and not just patrols would reach the railway line running north from Baku, thus severely hampering Soviet logistics in Grozny (which might fall if there is sufficient LW support) and everything south of it. Thus, it's possible that the area around Novorossiskis is cleared, possibly clearing up the port for supplies to come in.

All in all, Axis advances might be marginally deeper, achieve some notable objectives (cutting off the rail line, clearing Novorossisk), suffer marginally more casualties compared to OTL, and put the Italian mountain troops where they where intended to go in the first place, but, other than that, no major changes form OTL. Certainly no forces would be 'wasted'

Astrakhan
Unlike Stalingrad, the road to Astrakhan is wide-open steppe with little in the way of infrastructure and an easily defensible flank in the form of the Volga river. All of these lead to to believe that fighting would be limited as the Germans would probably outrun their supply lines, and, where it does take place, would be the sort of maneuver engagements in the open where the RA still sucked and the Germans still excelled. Hence, again, no 'wasting'

Conclusion
With the focal point that was Stalingrad out of their system, the Germans might consolidate their line on the Don, even if as an afterthought. Certainly at least some of the bridgeheads would be eliminated. Plus, Paulus should be more than able to amass at least some form of a panzer reserve as an insurance policy come winter, since there's no way the Germans can keep significantly more stuff supplied south of Stalingrad compared to OTL until they manage to extend their rail lines (which will take time).

Hence, any soviet winter counteroffensive would not be the walk in the park they enjoyed against the the hopeless Romanian formations OTL.

Blackfox5 · Apr 28, 2014

I believe the eventual Soviet winter counterattack will push back the Germans, but Germany avoids the disaster it encountered IOTL.

The Germans have several months where they are not fighting in the meatgrinder in the city. Their morale is high. Their leaders are able to look upon the big picture for defense rather than obsess about moving tactical formations in an urban environment. They have more reserves. They have also likely used the time to eliminate the few remaining Red Army pockets west of the Volga. The Germans should have much better position.

It's important to remember that for the success the Red Army did have in late 1941 and late 1942, that we now know they had all sorts of failed offensives. Typically Soviet successes came against German formations exhausted by offensives that did not adequately prepare defenses (because Hitler thought the Red Army had no more reserves). When the German army was rested and prepared, the Soviets did horribly. We don't see the real punishing Red Army until 1943 and beyond when it was amplified by massive Lend Lease allowing Deep Operations possible.

Instead, their only real advantage at this point is their skill at maskirovka and ability to marshall lots of troops in the rear. I think this is enough to produce a victory, but not a devastating one. Good enough for propaganda, but the German casualties will be far lower and the Soviet casualties will be far higher. Especially once Manstein is sent in with reinforcements.

End result is that the Germans hold back the Soviets an additional 3-9 months over the course of the war from where their frontlines were in 1944 and 1945. This will have a big impact in the postwar world.

Julian · Apr 28, 2014

Magnum said:
With all due respect, I would disagree.

Kotluban
From what I read about Kotluban, it goes something like this:

The Germans held a series of hills, which gave them a commanding view of the flat area north of them. Soviet formations facing them were extremely vulnerable to artillery and air attack, and had to engage multiple lines of prepared defences with only frontal assaults.

OTL, this had predictable results (to quote the often-revered Glantz):

So basically the Soviets threw away 200k men and only achieved pinning down Paulus' tanks, preventing them from entering Stalingrad...

If the Soviets chose to make this the battle of their choice, they sure aren't going to do themselves any favors.

Caucasus
As you probably know, Axis casualties in the Caucasus were comparatively light, and often there was little fighting as logistical difficulties hampered the advance, whilst the Soviets often conducted a fighting retreat.

What I expect to happen is that the Italian Alpine divisions would be transferred to the area, and some German formations would be moved north. Presumably, actual German formations and not just patrols would reach the railway line running north from Baku, thus severely hampering Soviet logistics in Grozny (which might fall if there is sufficient LW support) and everything south of it. Thus, it's possible that the area around Novorossiskis is cleared, possibly clearing up the port for supplies to come in.

All in all, Axis advances might be marginally deeper, achieve some notable objectives (cutting off the rail line, clearing Novorossisk), suffer marginally more casualties compared to OTL, and put the Italian mountain troops where they where intended to go in the first place, but, other than that, no major changes form OTL. Certainly no forces would be 'wasted'

Astrakhan
Unlike Stalingrad, the road to Astrakhan is wide-open steppe with little in the way of infrastructure and an easily defensible flank in the form of the Volga river. All of these lead to to believe that fighting would be limited as the Germans would probably outrun their supply lines, and, where it does take place, would be the sort of maneuver engagements in the open where the RA still sucked and the Germans still excelled. Hence, again, no 'wasting'

Conclusion
With the focal point that was Stalingrad out of their system, the Germans might consolidate their line on the Don, even if as an afterthought. Certainly at least some of the bridgeheads would be eliminated. Plus, Paulus should be more than able to amass at least some form of a panzer reserve as an insurance policy come winter, since there's no way the Germans can keep significantly more stuff supplied south of Stalingrad compared to OTL until they manage to extend their rail lines (which will take time).

Hence, any soviet winter counteroffensive would not be the walk in the park they enjoyed against the the hopeless Romanian formations OTL.

Regardless of the success of the Kotluban Offensives, they were vicious and (To 6th Army) dangerous enough that they tied down 2/3 of its strength even during the height of the Stalingrad battle. Further, even in November 1942 the Germans continued to concentrate their attention and strength in that region, encouraged by Soviet deception. The problem wasn't one of reserves; the Germans had the men and material to defend the Don bridgeheads. The problem was that they didn't take the threat seriously and were deceived by the Red Army.

My point about wastage is that German forces freed up from Stalingrad would be sent on ventures in the Caucasus and towards Astrakhan which as you acknowledge were logistically impossible to support. In the end they fail to achieve their objectives while leaving even more men at the wrong end of the front, or even transferred north to Voronezh or Rzhev.

As I said above, the Germans simply failed to recognize the Red Army's offensive capabilities in fall 1942 and, deceived by their misconceptions and active Soviet deception, failed to recognize the threat of the Don bridgeheads. The 48th Panzer Corps and 16th Motorized Divisions were the only German reserves to repel Uranus not because none were available but because the Germans believed those would be sufficient.

Also of interest is that with German forces transferred elsewhere the Uranus sack would be much easier to reduce than IOTL. While yielding fewer POWs, the benefit of quickly freeing up the Stalingrad Front would make Saturn a more powerful and coherent operation.

Dathi THorfinnsson · Apr 29, 2014

Were the Soviets really able to ship stuff up the Volga with the Germans on one bank? If not, then 'taking Stalingrad' makes very little difference to the Germans. Theyre still going to have to keep those troops there to hold it, and supplying an army there might bleed the German army more than otl.

Heck, the Soviets could leave that army in place, and swing around and cut supply lines essentially like they did iotl.

Then Germany's got an even bigger problem suppying that army than otl, perhaps.

Magnum · Apr 30, 2014

Dathi THorfinnsson said:
Were the Soviets really able to ship stuff up the Volga with the Germans on one bank?

The Germans held a small strip north of Stalingrad at the beginning of the battle that in no way had a direct line of fire towards the area where soviet boats carried men and stuff back and forth across the river. By the time they finally reached sections of the river bank within the city, ice flows had started to prevent the river craft from resupplying and 'Uranus' was only days away.

Dathi THorfinnsson said:
If not, then 'taking Stalingrad' makes very little difference to the Germans. Theyre still going to have to keep those troops there to hold it, and supplying an army there might bleed the German army more than otl.

I'm not quite sure I follow. Are the Soviets gonna do amphibious landings across the Volga into Stalingrad ?

Where is this continual fighting going to take place that is going to " bleed the German army more than otl" ??

Dathi THorfinnsson said:
Heck, the Soviets could leave that army in place, and swing around and cut supply lines essentially like they did iotl.

What army ?

Julian said:
Regardless of the success of the Kotluban Offensives, they were vicious and (To 6th Army) dangerous enough that they tied down 2/3 of its strength even during the height of the Stalingrad battle. Further, even in November 1942 the Germans continued to concentrate their attention and strength in that region, encouraged by Soviet deception. The problem wasn't one of reserves; the Germans had the men and material to defend the Don bridgeheads. The problem was that they didn't take the threat seriously and were deceived by the Red Army.

Stalingrad was partly an ideological pursuit, partly an effort to secure the flank for the drive into the Caucasus. Taking it almost guarantees that the Germans look at some other problems as well (like the Don bridgeheads or the lack of a reserve) - even if not to an ideal extent, but certainly more than OTL

Julian said:
My point about wastage is that German forces freed up from Stalingrad would be sent on ventures in the Caucasus and towards Astrakhan which as you acknowledge were logistically impossible to support. In the end they fail to achieve their objectives while leaving even more men at the wrong end of the front, or even transferred north to Voronezh or Rzhev.

However, those men are/had been fighting Soviet forces for more than 3 months on much more favorable conditions in the open field - hence more Soviet casualties - hence less men the Soviets can throw into a counteroffensive and more men the Germans can recall to deal with it

Julian said:
Also of interest is that with German forces transferred elsewhere the Uranus sack would be much easier to reduce than IOTL. While yielding fewer POWs, the benefit of quickly freeing up the Stalingrad Front would make Saturn a more powerful and coherent operation.

Actually, there would likely be no "Uranus sack" IMVHO for a very simple reason:

With the whole of 4th panzer Army and a sizeable part of 6th army (those not tied up at Kotluban) freed from urban combat, they can and will strike south, down the Volga, against 57th and 51st armies, likely pushing them around 100 km away from the German railhead (e.g just across the river from Akhtubinks) and possibly inflicting substantial casualties upon them. This will mean that, not only will the Soviets be nearly 4 armies short (62nd & 64 trapped, 57th & 51st mauled), they will also be attacking from only one direction - across the Don.

With the southern arm of the pincer removed, they would have to travel twice the distance they covered OTL in order to reach the Volga and trap whatever forces Paulus would have tied up at Kotluban. This will give 6th army all the time in world to evac south OR redeploy to stop the Soviet spearhead if it so chooses AND it leaves the Soviets with a HUGE wide open right flank susceptible to counterattack from all those German forces you say would be sent off north and south, once they are recalled.

lucaswillen05 · Apr 30, 2014

The Germans would not nw be committed to that grinding three month battle of attrition they had to face IOTL so, unless the reserves all get siphoned off to the Caucasus or elsewhere there should now be reserves behind the line to commit as and where needed.

Operation Uranus still gets launched and the Germans will still struggle to defeat it as they struggled to defeat Operation Mars launched at about the same time. Hwever, they will have a better chance than IOTL. Having said that, Paulus was no Model, let alone a Manstein so, whether he could have defeated Operation Uranus wsithout incurring very heavy losses is another matter

Julian · Apr 30, 2014

Magnum said:
Actually, there would likely be no "Uranus sack" IMVHO for a very simple reason:

With the whole of 4th panzer Army and a sizeable part of 6th army (those not tied up at Kotluban) freed from urban combat, they can and will strike south, down the Volga, against 57th and 51st armies, likely pushing them around 100 km away from the German railhead (e.g just across the river from Akhtubinks) and possibly inflicting substantial casualties upon them. This will mean that, not only will the Soviets be nearly 4 armies short (62nd & 64 trapped, 57th & 51st mauled), they will also be attacking from only one direction - across the Don.

With the southern arm of the pincer removed, they would have to travel twice the distance they covered OTL in order to reach the Volga and trap whatever forces Paulus would have tied up at Kotluban. This will give 6th army all the time in world to evac south OR redeploy to stop the Soviet spearhead if it so chooses AND it leaves the Soviets with a HUGE wide open right flank susceptible to counterattack from all those German forces you say would be sent off north and south, once they are recalled.

It's unlikely that the Germans would commit their released reserves for such a minor offensive. It's far more likely that they're sent to reinforce the Caucasus and Army Group Center (9th Panzer Division was sent IOTL). The Soviet forces on the flanks are still viewed as minor problems compared to others, which precludes new resources for their elimination. 6th Army and 4th a Panzer are likely to be broken up, as 4th Panzer was IOTL, and used elsewhere.

Magnum · Apr 30, 2014

Julian said:
It's unlikely that the Germans would commit their released reserves for such a minor offensive. It's far more likely that they're sent to reinforce the Caucasus and Army Group Center (9th Panzer Division was sent IOTL). The Soviet forces on the flanks are still viewed as minor problems compared to others, which precludes new resources for their elimination. 6th Army and 4th a Panzer are likely to be broken up, as 4th Panzer was IOTL, and used elsewhere.

But here's the thing: it wouldn't be a minor offensive - it would be the drive to Astrahan, which you yourself mentioned would be an objective upon which the Germans would waste their resources, no ?

There isn't any significant infrastructure advancing via Elista, so they're gonna have to rely on the railway leading towards Stalingrad, thus constraining Germany's options to either a) give up on Astrahan or b)advance towards it down the Volga.

sloreck · Apr 30, 2014

If the fall of Stalingrad means the Germans can interdict the rail lines running to the rest of the USSR from Baku, the Soviets have major problems. Petroleum imports via LL can't be much higher than they were OTL, its an issue of tanker capacity and how much can be diverted to the USSR. The US/UK can't simply send a huge number of tankers to deliver POL to the USSR without crippling other fronts, and even if they did you'll lose a bunch more than OTL along dangerous sailing routes. Furthermore, I doubt that the USSR has the capacity to accept more petroleum product at Murmansk or Vladivostok, store it temporarily and then ship it to where it is needed (storage tank capacity, tanker RR cars and RR capacity etc).

Denying Caucasus oil to the USSR means tanks, trucks, etc have much reduced mobility, and industry has issues. If the Germans gt close to the oil fields and the Soviets begin to wreck things to deny them to the Germans, even if the offensive never gets there and/or is rolled back this makes life tough for Stalin.

Of course, all of this assumes once the Germans get a quick victory at Stalingrad they use the time and resources they now have compared to OTL wisely...