WI: Battle of Lützen (1813) is a second Austerlitz

Since "Napoleon wins Waterloo" is a fairly common AH scenario in AH, yet is also one that ultimately would only prolong the inevitable for Napoleon, I was thinking of something different.

IOTL, though it was seriously weakened by the disastrous invasion of Russia in 1812, in early 1813 France was still a force to be reckoned with, compared with the situation just a year later, never mind the situation at Waterloo.

This is best exemplified by Napoleon defeating the combined Russo-Prussian armies in both Lützen and Bautzen, before going on to defeat in Leipzig later in the year.

Lützen in particular seems to have been a missed opportunity for Napoleon, as his plan to use Marshal Ney's corps as bait to lure in the Russo-Prussians while he himself led the massive counter assault against their flank worked, nearly trapping them. However, because of the evening dark, lack of French cavalry and the inability of the French forces to follow through, the allied force was able to retreat in good order.

So, suppose the battle starts earlier in the day, when Napoleon has more time and fresher troops. The Russian and Prussian armies are cut off and destroyed, and Wittgenstein and Blücher are either captured or killed. Instead of OTL's tactical defeat Lützen becomes a decisive, strategic one. How is the War of the Sixth Coalition affected?

While I may not be entirely informed on the matter, Napoleon having fresher troops won't matter in this context, as the enemies troops would be fresher as well

Combine that with the fact that Napoleon had no cavalry this battle would still not be as terrific a defeat as Austerlitz.

Allies suffer more casualties, but do beat off the attempted encirclement by Napoleon.

More than that, consider this: When Napoleon looked as if he was about to lose the Battle of Leipzig, Numerous German troops defected to the coalition. That is not going to be altered by another victory on Napoleons side

Maybe Lutzen can do more for Napoleon, but he had the same issue that Hitler had in 1943, too many enemies, too few resources, and an idiotic invasion of Russia.

Regardless of what happens, by 1813 Napoleon Can at max keep more of the Lowlands, and more influence in Italy. they won't get the Rhine, and they sure as hell won't be keeping Spain

A better POD would be at Leipzig itself, right before the battle. The Russian Czar and the Prussian King, along with most of their senior staff, were nearly captured by French cavalry, but the cavalry didn't know it was them, and gave up the chase.

slydessertfox said:

A better POD would be at Leipzig itself, right before the battle. The Russian Czar and the Prussian King, along with most of their senior staff, were nearly captured by French cavalry, but the cavalry didn't know it was them, and gave up the chase.

Click to expand...

That would be an interesting situation. Would the Russian and Prussian armies be able to function with their rulers and most of their senior staff captive/hostage?

Actually, it is such an interesting question that I'll promptly start a separate thread for that.