How long can Lithuania stay Pagan?
- Thread starter Orko
- Start date
My guess is, barring major changes in the earliest phases of the Northern Crusades, about as long as it did. It was completely surrounded by Christian powers and its continued survival was largely dependent to not making all of them enemies at the same time.
It had also been expanding into heavily Christian lands (Ruthenia) whose continued loyalty was much more likely to be kept with conversion (although, to be fair, picking Orthodoxy over Catholicism would have been a smarter move to that effect; otoh, there wasn't really a strong hegemonic Orthodox power nearby ).
My understanding is that a large minority of the Lithuanian nobility was already Christian when Jogaila converted and that continued official Paganism would have exposed Lithuania to further threats from the Teutonic Knights with relatively little room to find allies.
Conversion can be delayed a bit without the Polish marriage of Jogaila, but probably not by much.
Lithuania would either be conquered by Christian neighbours and forcibly converted, or experience a civil war between Christian and Pagan nobles, with the former more likely to come out on top thanks the much higher likelihood of foreign support.
In a sense it is remarkable that they managed to cling to Paganism as long as they did historically.
It had also been expanding into heavily Christian lands (Ruthenia) whose continued loyalty was much more likely to be kept with conversion (although, to be fair, picking Orthodoxy over Catholicism would have been a smarter move to that effect; otoh, there wasn't really a strong hegemonic Orthodox power nearby ).
My understanding is that a large minority of the Lithuanian nobility was already Christian when Jogaila converted and that continued official Paganism would have exposed Lithuania to further threats from the Teutonic Knights with relatively little room to find allies.
Conversion can be delayed a bit without the Polish marriage of Jogaila, but probably not by much.
Lithuania would either be conquered by Christian neighbours and forcibly converted, or experience a civil war between Christian and Pagan nobles, with the former more likely to come out on top thanks the much higher likelihood of foreign support.
In a sense it is remarkable that they managed to cling to Paganism as long as they did historically.
Well, I'd answer roughly the same way than in your previous thread about it.
Lithuania, as a definite (and young) political entity, began to exist in an already Christian-dominated region.
As long they keep avoiding Christianisation (as in official Christianisation, as it was already present among Lithuanian nobility), they would continue to be considered as little more than raiders and targets.
A politically isolated Lithuania would eventually turn into a target for Crusade or religious-driven (at least partially) expeditions, or if surviving trough expansion would have led to include already christianised populations.
I'm not too sure it would be able to keep pagan rites much further than IOTL.
Lithuania, as a definite (and young) political entity, began to exist in an already Christian-dominated region.
As long they keep avoiding Christianisation (as in official Christianisation, as it was already present among Lithuanian nobility), they would continue to be considered as little more than raiders and targets.
A politically isolated Lithuania would eventually turn into a target for Crusade or religious-driven (at least partially) expeditions, or if surviving trough expansion would have led to include already christianised populations.
I'm not too sure it would be able to keep pagan rites much further than IOTL.
"Pagan religion" is itself a pretty vague term.
"Lithuanian rites and mythology" would probably be best fitting (and far better, IMO, than retconning "Romuva" which is more fitting to the neo-paganism movement) critically considering it was most probably part of a ensemble of Baltic beliefs and rites rather than specifically Lithuanian.
The Teutonic Knights could, and did, do some damage to Lithuania, but they didn't have the resources to push all that deep into central Europe from the Baltic.
The real, long-term military threat to Lithuania was from the East. Moscow was not strong enough to bring Lithuania down at the time it converted to Christianity in OTL (early 1400s), but it grew more powerful thereafter. If Lithuania was still pagan by the time of Ivan the Terrible, it's highly likely that he would try to conquer it. If he failed, the threat would renew under Peter the Great. You can butterfly both rulers away, but Lithuania would be an obstacle to Russian ambitions by the 1600s, and Russia had plenty of resources.
The intellectual threat is that the polytheistic Lithuanian religion was looking increasingly anachronistic as time went on. At some point, maybe the Enlightenment, even if the state had withstood all foreign attack, the religion just wouldn't have seemed credible any more.
The real, long-term military threat to Lithuania was from the East. Moscow was not strong enough to bring Lithuania down at the time it converted to Christianity in OTL (early 1400s), but it grew more powerful thereafter. If Lithuania was still pagan by the time of Ivan the Terrible, it's highly likely that he would try to conquer it. If he failed, the threat would renew under Peter the Great. You can butterfly both rulers away, but Lithuania would be an obstacle to Russian ambitions by the 1600s, and Russia had plenty of resources.
The intellectual threat is that the polytheistic Lithuanian religion was looking increasingly anachronistic as time went on. At some point, maybe the Enlightenment, even if the state had withstood all foreign attack, the religion just wouldn't have seemed credible any more.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
I think it's ASB for Lithuanian paganism to last until the enlightenment, but if an ASB force field prevents its conquest or conversion until the late 17th century, maybe Lithuanians would go right from paganism to atheism.
Last night i was thinking that they could stay pagan for thirty years. Jogaila does not marry the Polish queen. Then seeing the turmoil in the papacy, and the preaching of Jon Hus, they invite him to Lithuania to preach.
Lithuania converts to Taborism. If the lollards are still strong in England, we can have the reformation a hundred years earlier.
Lithuania converts to Taborism. If the lollards are still strong in England, we can have the reformation a hundred years earlier.
If they stay pagan, Lithuania is extinguished. Just like the Prussians (Old Prussians, the Baltic people).
IMO.
IMO.
What about having Poland stay Fragmented, have Elisabeth Richeza bear a son who inherits her father's lands and have Wenceslaus III actually survive and give up on Poland - in that case Bohemia does not gain Silesia and Bohemia returns to its German Focus.
FrozenMix
Banned
I'd say they stayed Pagan a lot longer than it should have been expected to, at a large detriment to the state itself in terms of having to deal with wars that were more genocidal and nasty than they would have been otherwise, making Lithuania clearly the junior partner to Poland rather than at least maintaining the appearance of equality.
I suppose its possible that it stays Pagan longer if they substantially decentralize. I cannot say for sure how successful Christianization was for them at first, and like many Pagan nations that converted for political reasons, there is a huge difference between the King and his nobles being Christian and the villagers out in the forest still practicing the old rites, which even in Western and Central Europe at this point, was still occurring.
Decentralization will slow the process, but it will also weaken Lithuania. Then again, Lithuania only survived as it did because it was hard to force state on state actions with it, and the Teutonic Knights, despite being chronically weak, would still trounce them in an open battle. Relegating the fight to a scorched earth genocide on both sides gave them the advantage in terms of survival.
Of course, there is no way the Lithuanians if Pagan last the reign of Ivan the Terrible.
I suppose its possible that it stays Pagan longer if they substantially decentralize. I cannot say for sure how successful Christianization was for them at first, and like many Pagan nations that converted for political reasons, there is a huge difference between the King and his nobles being Christian and the villagers out in the forest still practicing the old rites, which even in Western and Central Europe at this point, was still occurring.
Decentralization will slow the process, but it will also weaken Lithuania. Then again, Lithuania only survived as it did because it was hard to force state on state actions with it, and the Teutonic Knights, despite being chronically weak, would still trounce them in an open battle. Relegating the fight to a scorched earth genocide on both sides gave them the advantage in terms of survival.
Of course, there is no way the Lithuanians if Pagan last the reign of Ivan the Terrible.
Consider the fact, that about 80% of population of Lithuanian Grand Duchy by the time of Jogaila was already Orthodox Christian, including many members of rulling Gediminid Dynasty.