WI: China becomes a colony of Great Britain?
- Thread starter Hongfan91
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The population's much more hostile.The Boxer rebellion convinced the Western Powers that it is in their interest not to directly annex more territory.Besides that,I don't think the other Europeans are going to sit idly by if Britain tries to grab the whole thing,especially Russia.
scholar
Banned
By the end of the Qing, like the late 19th, early 20th century? By that point it was ASB. The Qing government was strong enough and centralized enough to prevent any outright attempt at conquest, and the cultural identity embedded into the Chinese would have refused a foreign conqueror who would not move into China and adopt Chinese customs. The only thing the British could have done was spark an uprising to replace the Qing, but they had very legitimate fears that such a move would actually weaken their ability to influence and control the state. Further, other powers were interested in extracting trade and wealth from China so the British could not nakedly take it, even if they wanted to and even if they could, both of which are arguably not true.
So, one might say that in the 18th century China was too strong for them to do so, in the 19th century Britain was in a position to destroy the Qing, but doing so would only harm their national interests, and in the 20th century it had become an impossibility.
Beyond some treaty ports it would just be too much to hold down. I think India was about as big as Britain could control and even then they had a couple hundred years to do it. By the time they would be ready to take over China it would be too late. They would get control.
Plus, unlike India, China has always been fairly united. It was a nation, not a geographical term. It would be several times harder to hold down than India at its wildest
Plus, unlike India, China has always been fairly united. It was a nation, not a geographical term. It would be several times harder to hold down than India at its wildest
Puppetizing the Emperor would be possible. Taking over the administration of the whole country, not so much.
It depends, perhaps, on what counts as 'colonizing'. Making China a de facto client state is certainly possible (although probably not at all worth it). Actually trying to take the country over? Guaranteed disaster. Not that that would prevent them from TRYING, perhaps. Or even succeeding for a decade or two, but I can't see it being a 'normal' colony.
It would be a touch easier to have a dynastic change, and have the British monarch be also the Emperor of China, but otherwise largely using the existing Chinese administration apparatus. But that would be very, very tricky to pull off.
It depends, perhaps, on what counts as 'colonizing'. Making China a de facto client state is certainly possible (although probably not at all worth it). Actually trying to take the country over? Guaranteed disaster. Not that that would prevent them from TRYING, perhaps. Or even succeeding for a decade or two, but I can't see it being a 'normal' colony.
It would be a touch easier to have a dynastic change, and have the British monarch be also the Emperor of China, but otherwise largely using the existing Chinese administration apparatus. But that would be very, very tricky to pull off.
scholar
Banned
That's about as likely as Europe being able to do the same in the United States after the Civil War.
I'd suspect less likely really. China had a far higher population density and a lot more differences. The US was built on fairly recent immigrants leaving nearish to the coastlines.
iddt3
Donor
It *might* be possible in a China that fractures at the end of the Ming and doesn't reunify under the Qing. Lots of separate states, weakened by chronic warfare, with the temptation to invite foreigners in for momentary advantage, and for the UK, the temptation to intervene to secure sources of luxury goods. An extended period of disunity in the early modern period also undermines the "One China" ideology, and potentially allows for more development of regional identities. So Europe gets into China much the same way it got into India, gradually consolidating and building a native administration apparatus, until after a Seven Years War equivalent the UK kicks everyone else out and ends up sole master of China. But invasion and outright conquest of a unitary state near the end of the 19th century? Highly unlikely.
The only other opening was the Taiping Rebellion, but, despite the devastation, I think that was too late for full colonization unless it's a concerted effort to break up China by all of Europe, and it lasts much longer than OTL. By that point I can see the peasantry willing to live under foreign rule if said rule at least provides them safety.
The only other opening was the Taiping Rebellion, but, despite the devastation, I think that was too late for full colonization unless it's a concerted effort to break up China by all of Europe, and it lasts much longer than OTL. By that point I can see the peasantry willing to live under foreign rule if said rule at least provides them safety.
It's important to know that Britain was able to pull that off because there was no unitary force on the Indian subcontinent and it was in the period of transition and confusion following the end of Mughal rule. Even then the EIC never fought the Indian states at the height of their competence- they exploited succession crises and intrigue to do so. For example, they didn't invade the Marathas until Peshwa Raghunathrao had died. Many of the post-Mughal states had only the beginning of proper state foundations that would allow the British to exploit their instability and emphasis on personal rule.
Something less possible to do in China, frankly.
RousseauX
Donor
Because you had an intact imperial government, which meant you had an entity which can play the role of the arbiter between different colonial interest and offer a system through which the colonialists can apply indirect rule.
RousseauX
Donor
The problem with this is that there are too many different powers interested in China for one power to gobble it all up. Trying to make China into a British exclusive sphere of influence like India is way too much for the other powers to accept, which is why you ended up with the open-door policy in the first place.
I don't think it was ever possible for China to become conquered by a single European country. Most colonial conquests were done on the cheap, with smallish European forces that took advantage of external factors to divide and conquer local populations. That wouldn't work in China. A conquest of a giant unitary state like China would have been an absolute logistical nightmare, requiring massive resources and a willingness to stomach huge casualties for a long time.
And then if that weren't difficult enough, Britain is probably going to find itself at war with other European powers, who are going to see a golden opportunity to both knock Britain down a peg and also form amicable trade relations with the Chinese court by allying with it. Somehow the UK will have to subdue a huge Chinese population in a huge territory and fight off its European rivals in China and elsewhere around the globe. That would not end well for the British.
And then if that weren't difficult enough, Britain is probably going to find itself at war with other European powers, who are going to see a golden opportunity to both knock Britain down a peg and also form amicable trade relations with the Chinese court by allying with it. Somehow the UK will have to subdue a huge Chinese population in a huge territory and fight off its European rivals in China and elsewhere around the globe. That would not end well for the British.
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This is the sort of direction we need to look at. This happening with a later POD in the 19th or 18th centuries is just impossible.
There were a number of political cartoons from the time of the Boxer Rebellion that seem to think the European Powers plus the USA and Japan would divide up China.
At best probably the British could extend north from Hong Kong & the new territories to the East River & east to Fenhe Harbour. It would increase their territory 5 fold but would still be just a small bite out of China.
Conquering up all the Qing Empire is hard even from the British.
Though,if i recall,the Japanese had a peace proposal for WWI: Everyone got back to status quo and they would have divided China between the powers.
That's the idea:Maybe a coalition of all the Colonial Powers (Britain,France,Italy,Germany,Russia and everyone else) could divide China,though no one could conquer it alone.
Though,if i recall,the Japanese had a peace proposal for WWI: Everyone got back to status quo and they would have divided China between the powers.
That's the idea:Maybe a coalition of all the Colonial Powers (Britain,France,Italy,Germany,Russia and everyone else) could divide China,though no one could conquer it alone.
Britain adding India as a 'colony' was more a 300 year accident than a planned event and so un-probable that its verging on ASB territory if we didn't know it to be true.
The East India Companies success came at a time when the previous dynasty in India had effectively fallen and petty balkanised type wars had inflicted great suffering and large parts of the population had been impacted.
This massive Trading company provided stability and effective rule during this time and well you know the rest - Coercion, money, War...and it has to be said I am not a fan of Empire and nor do I miss it there was a fair bit of "What have the Romans ever done for us?"
While at the same time the other Empire Builders where not nearly as successful.
For the same thing to happen in China - it would have to happen at the same time with the same fall of dynasty / disruption - with again other European Nations being slow off the mark.
The East India Companies success came at a time when the previous dynasty in India had effectively fallen and petty balkanised type wars had inflicted great suffering and large parts of the population had been impacted.
This massive Trading company provided stability and effective rule during this time and well you know the rest - Coercion, money, War...and it has to be said I am not a fan of Empire and nor do I miss it there was a fair bit of "What have the Romans ever done for us?"
While at the same time the other Empire Builders where not nearly as successful.
For the same thing to happen in China - it would have to happen at the same time with the same fall of dynasty / disruption - with again other European Nations being slow off the mark.
Britain chose to dominate the most profitable types of trade with China: primarily opium through a few Potts along the South Coast ( e.g. Hong Kong).
Meanwhile Portugal controlled the port of Macao, only a short distance down the coast.
The vast interior of China with all it's peasant farmers barely able to feed themselves would never have been profitable for a European invader.
Meanwhile Portugal controlled the port of Macao, only a short distance down the coast.
The vast interior of China with all it's peasant farmers barely able to feed themselves would never have been profitable for a European invader.