AHC: more aggressive Japanese expansion (1890~1905)
- Thread starter mlp
- Start date
Maybe if Meiji dies.
But I think Japan was very much aware of their limitations. Any more aggressive expansion would incur the response from other major powers. The king of Hawaii wanted the Japan to enter alliance with him, but the Japanese refused, being aware that this would lead to confrontation with the US, if not immediately, than in close future.
But I think Japan was very much aware of their limitations. Any more aggressive expansion would incur the response from other major powers. The king of Hawaii wanted the Japan to enter alliance with him, but the Japanese refused, being aware that this would lead to confrontation with the US, if not immediately, than in close future.
I think Japan became cautious because of previous experiences.
What those experiences may be would be my main question - or, if it was due to a change in cabinet(like the Seikanron scandal), which cabinet it was that led Japan in the latter decades of the 19th century.
Could this contest for the Philippines lead to a diplomatic conflict between Japan and the US?
Japan was very weak at the time. That they were able to crush the Chinese fleet was considered a miracle and it was from then on that Japan saw itself as a major power.
Perhaps you could have that war occur earlier, giving Japan the confidence boost necessary to start going balls-out in the Pacific.
Perhaps you could have that war occur earlier, giving Japan the confidence boost necessary to start going balls-out in the Pacific.
Grey Wolf
Donor
The best bet IMHO is no international alliance against the outcome of the Sino-Japanese War and thus Port Arthur remains in Japanese hands.
This would have emboldened Japanese foreign policy, because to date no European power has intervened against them in Asia.
Whether they could have pulled something off in the Philippines in 1898 is a question, but this could lead to them trying and Spain may consider a sale to Japan as better than a loss to the USA.
This might be especially so if Germany is impressed by Japanese gains against China and as part of a campaign against China (ie Tsingtao) sees an alliance with and support of Japan as a policy.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
This would have emboldened Japanese foreign policy, because to date no European power has intervened against them in Asia.
Whether they could have pulled something off in the Philippines in 1898 is a question, but this could lead to them trying and Spain may consider a sale to Japan as better than a loss to the USA.
This might be especially so if Germany is impressed by Japanese gains against China and as part of a campaign against China (ie Tsingtao) sees an alliance with and support of Japan as a policy.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
There is not a chance Japan getting the Philippines nor Hawaii during that time. Hawaii's too far off and the Filipinos'd fight the Japanese tooth and nail.
Just like they fought in the Philippine-American war and how they resisted the Japanese in World War 2. The Japanese of that time were lucky getting Taiwan,Korea and Ryuku Islands.
Just like they fought in the Philippine-American war and how they resisted the Japanese in World War 2. The Japanese of that time were lucky getting Taiwan,Korea and Ryuku Islands.
Last edited:
Like I said in a previous thread, one must consider the relationship between philippines and Japan before even considering invasion.
You must also consider if the cost of invading is cheaper or more expensive than allying or putting philippines in the japanese Spere of influence.
Philippine interests in 1890s was more aligned to Japan than USA.
TFSmith121
Banned
Did the Japanese actually "ally" with any power
Did the Japanese actually "ally" with any power that remained independent prior to the British?
Their record in the Rykyus and Korea - if those can even be interpreted as alliances in their earliest stages, which is certainly questionable - seems to suggest otherwise.
Best,
Did the Japanese actually "ally" with any power that remained independent prior to the British?
Their record in the Rykyus and Korea - if those can even be interpreted as alliances in their earliest stages, which is certainly questionable - seems to suggest otherwise.
Best,
I still think this virtually requires Meiji to die. As well as some of the major political figures. The Japanese went to war against China reluctantly in 1895. Up to then they thought of the Chinese as friendly.
And the Chinese intellects became pro-Japan after seeing China lose. I've virtually never heard of the argument that Japan went to war with China reluctantly. Would you care to elaborate?
Japan doesn't have the strength to act that aggressively at that point. They got lucky with Russia.
Korea is anything but modern during the time period. Philipppines performed better than spain in otl vs usa in a war. With philippines, Japan is facing a prospect Fighting a modern army/ western style army.
So by comparing philippines with korea is not an apple to Apple comparison.
Well, they viewed the Chinese pretty much the same as the Romans viewed Greece. They first tried to be friendly and cooperate, IIRC. That was at the beginning of Meiji Restoration. It took 30 years of evolving relationship till it fell apart. For the details, I'd need to reread the book on Meiji...
I'm skeptical about the power that the emperor actually held. I'd say influential Meiji statesmen, in particular the Genro, held the real power.zeppelinair said:
In our timeline, Japan actually almost went to war against Korea in 1873 because they refused to recognize the new Empire of Japan. If the war had actually happened and Japan managed to annex, or at least subjugate Korea, their appetite for overseas conquests would be roused. The next targets would probably be Taiwan. Japan expanding into those China-influenced territories would inevitably cause an confrontation with China. A solid victory against the Chinese, followed by territorial concessions, would effectively have sped up Japanese expansion and allowed them to focus on areas such as South-East Asia e.g. the Philippines.zeppelinair said:
With a PoD late enough that the expansion has to happen ~1900, I don't think Japan can do a whole lot more than OTL. If they TRIED to take the Philippines, say, they'd do worse in Taiwan and Korea.
Now. With a PoD back in Tokugawa's time, you could have the Japanese go imperialist rather than isolationist, and take Taiwan then - when it wasn't populated by many Chinese. Then with another major Home Island, and industrialization to keep up to the Southern Barbarians, they can probably wrest the Philippines from Spain eventually, Spain's greater strength being outweighed by Japanese proximity.
Now. With a PoD back in Tokugawa's time, you could have the Japanese go imperialist rather than isolationist, and take Taiwan then - when it wasn't populated by many Chinese. Then with another major Home Island, and industrialization to keep up to the Southern Barbarians, they can probably wrest the Philippines from Spain eventually, Spain's greater strength being outweighed by Japanese proximity.
The point is not that they are to actually take the Philippines, but that they are to antagonise the United States. Sorry for not making that point clear.