Challenge: Newfoundland as an Iceland

http://blip.tv/the-alcove-with-mark...o-barbara-doran-on-hard-rock-and-water-152218

http://whyquebecneedsindependence.blogspot.com/2013/02/dependence-vs-independence-newfoundland.html

In many ways, Iceland and Newfoundland in the '40s had similar situations. However, the former went independent while the latter completely went dependent. Along with political subordination in Confederation, its economic resources became managed by Ottawa. The referenda were incredibly close-run.

So suppose two POD's- (1) the cataclysm of the cream of Newfoundland's youth doesn't get wiped out at the battle of Beaumont Hamel, and (2), the second referendum narrowly votes No to Confederation.

So how does Newfoundland inch its way to economic stability and prosperity, becoming something similar to an Iceland of the west? Remember, their oil wealth doesn't become apparently until the '90s or so.

I've always seen this as the best case scenario, which was, to some extent, with allot of luck, very much possible to achieve, even after WWII. Way to late for me to get into this right now on the other hand, but it is possible, by all means.

Strategos' Risk said:

So suppose two POD's- (1) the cataclysm of the cream of Newfoundland's youth doesn't get wiped out at the battle of Beaumont Hamel...

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I’m inclined to dispute that the losses from World War One were significant; they amounted to 0.8% of Newfoundland’s population, which is a lower percentage than incurred by the other white dominions, none of which suffered the loss of confidence that Newfoundland later did: Australia 1.38%, Canada 0.93% and New Zealand 1.65%. The other dominions all saw the First World War as a baptism of fire; cementing their independent national identities. The other dominions were all founding members of the League of Nations; Newfoundland chose not to be, despite having had an independent seat at the Peace Conference in Paris in 1919. Moreover, 1919 was a financial boom year for Newfoundland, with its premier boasting that no-one there earned less than 8 Shillings a day – so it was an attractive destination for immigrants from ‘the mother country’, which readily replaced the demographic shortfall caused by the war.

It wasn’t the human losses of the Frist World War that was so significant to Newfoundland; it was the financial losses. Newfoundland came out of the war heavily in debt, and that debt just kept accumulating in the years that followed.

NFLD fishery

For Newfoundland to remain financially viable, they would need better control of fish stocks.
OTL During the 1970s and 1980s, foreign (Polish, Portugeuse, American, etc.) factory ships were dragging the Grand Banks bare of all fish. The NFLD fishery never recovered.
OTL Remember the "cod war" between Iceland and England?
Fish may not be the first choice to feed the upper classes, but it provides inexpensive protein for the working class. Furthermore salt, dried or frozen fish is easily transported from thousands of miles away and it is carried by the cheapest form of transportation: ships.
Consider that the NFLD economy sold thousands of tons of salt cod to Carribbean plantation owners and most of that salt cod was eaten by slaves.

Cook said:

The other dominions were all founding members of the League of Nations; Newfoundland chose not to be, despite having had an independent seat at the Peace Conference in Paris in 1919.

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Whoa. Why didn't they? Surely this was before Newfoundland rejected responsible government to become more of a dependency upon Great Britain.

Cook said:

Moreover, 1919 was a financial boom year for Newfoundland, with its premier boasting that no-one there earned less than 8 Shillings a day – so it was an attractive destination for immigrants from ‘the mother country’, which readily replaced the demographic shortfall caused by the war.

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Could they have received higher immigration from Ireland during this era?

riggerrob said:

OTL During the 1970s and 1980s, foreign (Polish, Portugeuse, American, etc.) factory ships were dragging the Grand Banks bare of all fish. The NFLD fishery never recovered.

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If Newfoundland's own government retained control over its fisheries, would they have managed it better than Canada did?

The idea is that Newfoundland drags through it and manages to transition, Iceland style, into a modern economy. Hydropower and oil would be its future. And something analogous to EVE Online MMO financing. I think having NATO bases could be beneficial. Maybe closer economic ties to the U.S. allows the island to stave off being too tied to Canada.

What happens to Labrador in this situation? Is it still tied to Newfoundland?

Lindseyman said:

What happens to Labrador in this situation? Is it still tied to Newfoundland?

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Britain resolved the dispute over Labrador in Newfoundland's favor back when Newfoundland was still a dominion, and it's hard to picture Canada reviving the border dispute and trying to take it back by force. The Dominion of Newfoundland would still include Labrador.

Is there any way at all for Labrador to take over the northern part of the eastern North-West Territories that Quebec did in 1912? IIRC that area contains a fair number of the infrastructure projects for Hydro-Quebec, an independent Newfoundland that was able to hold on long enough could perhaps see a joint venture to build dams and hydro-electric power stations to export the energy to Quebec.

Simon said:

Is there any way at all for Labrador to take over the northern part of the eastern North-West Territories that Quebec did in 1912? IIRC that area contains a fair number of the infrastructure projects for Hydro-Quebec, an independent Newfoundland that was able to hold on long enough could perhaps see a joint venture to build dams and hydro-electric power stations to export the energy to Quebec.

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1) the Churchill Falls big Hydro development IS in Labrador. Nfld has been mad as heck that they have to sell that power at bargain basement prices to Quebec. If an independent Nfld signed a similar contract during development as the OTL provincial government did, they'd be in the same boat.
And given how hardball the Quebec government played, if they didn't sign a contract, where else would the power go?

discussing items not raised in the quoted section:

2) oil. Remember Hibernia field is new, really new. Production didn't start until 1997, and it requires modern tech and modern high oil prices to be profitable.

3) Iceland has an 1100 year history, and a significant literature dating back 800 years - in a language that's still intelligible to a modern Icelander. Newfoundland doesn't have that. Partly due to that, Icelanders are highly educated, and a great work force for international companies. Newfoundland, not so much.

The video in the OP does touch upon how Iceland also have a very ancient democracy. Newfoundland's history is pretty old as well, though, at least in the sense of having a distinct past separate from Canada. Certainly an independent Newfoundland scenario would require the island to become less provincial, and have greater ties with the outside world. I think NATO bases would be a first step towards that.