WI:No Spanish colonization of the Philippines

What if the Spanish did not colonize the Philippines, assuming that the Spanish instead acquire Mollucas like they planned in OTL?

Would Tondo under the Bolkiah dynasty unite Luzon as an islamic state?

Who would try to conquer the Philippines ITTL would it the French? the Portuguese or the English?
 
Who would try to conquer the Philippines ITTL would it the French? the Portuguese or the English?


At the time of the Spanish colonization of the Philippines, France and England were too busy either A. setting up colonies in America or B. preparing to colonize India. I think the most likely nation to colonize the Philippines instead, out of your choices, are the Portuguese. If not the Portuguese, possibly the Dutch, later on of course. If left untouched, the British may colonize it while they set up their Australian colony in the late 1700/early 1800s.
 
At the time of the Spanish colonization of the Philippines, France and England were too busy either A. setting up colonies in America or B. preparing to colonize India. I think the most likely nation to colonize the Philippines instead, out of your choices, are the Portuguese. If not the Portuguese, possibly the Dutch, later on of course. If left untouched, the British may colonize it while they set up their Australian colony in the late 1700/early 1800s.
Dutch is interesting because they allow their subjects to maintain their beliefs like what they did to Indonesia.
 
Dutch is interesting because they allow their subjects to maintain their beliefs like what they did to Indonesia.

Doesn't the British do the same?

About the OP, I think Tondo will survive pretty much longer. They might even dominate southern Luzón at the expense of Maynila and Namayan.
 
Doesn't the British do the same?

About the OP, I think Tondo will survive pretty much longer. They might even dominate southern Luzón at the expense of Maynila and Namayan.

Yes, they will.

If Tondo dominates Southern Luzon, that means Kapampangan will dominate in Luzon not Tagalog in Southern and Central Luzon and Ilocano in Northern Luzon, this aids in the unification of Luzon as a single state.
 
What if the Spanish did not colonize the Philippines, assuming that the Spanish instead acquire Mollucas like they planned in OTL?

Would Tondo under the Bolkiah dynasty unite Luzon as an islamic state?

Who would try to conquer the Philippines ITTL would it the French? the Portuguese or the English?

Spanish not colonizing have different outcomes. Being Colonized by Portugal, Dutch or China. Manila and Brunei is given time to recover. Thus, next possible colonization would be around 19th century. The other branch of that story is if Luzon fuses together into one Hindu state. Brunei would be repelled from Luzon instead. Another, Luzon to remain a tributary Chinese state.

Brunei couldn't even make majority of natives of Borneo Islam. The same can go with the Luzon. Islam in the coastal areas, hindu/animism in the rest.

The British or the French can try to conquer Luzon in 19th century especially if Brunei or Manila was able to recover in the 16th century when Manila was just recently conquered by Brunei.

To sum it up, and depending your PoD, Luzon was not assured to become Islam even though it was one of the possibilities.

The other question is would the Visayans(Cebu, Madya-as et. al) be islamised by the Tausugs who had been raiding them for sometime.

Short of military conquest, no way of making Visayas Islam. The Tausugs need to organize a certain degree of invasion and settlement rather than raiding. Like the Vikings, raiding will only increase resistance and defensive capabilities unless you settle on where you raid like the Rus or the Normans.
 
Spanish not colonizing have different outcomes. Being Colonized by Portugal, Dutch or China. Manila and Brunei is given time to recover. Thus, next possible colonization would be around 19th century. The other branch of that story is if Luzon fuses together into one Hindu state. Brunei would be repelled from Luzon instead. Another, Luzon to remain a tributary Chinese state.

Brunei couldn't even make majority of natives of Borneo Islam. The same can go with the Luzon. Islam in the coastal areas, hindu/animism in the rest.

The British or the French can try to conquer Luzon in 19th century especially if Brunei or Manila was able to recover in the 16th century when Manila was just recently conquered by Brunei.

To sum it up, and depending your PoD, Luzon was not assured to become Islam even though it was one of the possibilities.
The Tondo Dynasty has been gone at the POD and it is a cadet line of Bolkiahs that rule in Tondo, so Luzon will remain allied with Brunei if Tondo unites Luzon, remember Tondo is just the Capital of an empire that rules Central Luzon and has nearby states like Namayan as subordinates, they will perhaps tolerate the Pagans like the Bolkiahs did in Brunei and promote Islam as well.

Short of military conquest, no way of making Visayas Islam. The Tausugs need to organize a certain degree of invasion and settlement rather than raiding. Like the Vikings, raiding will only increase resistance and defensive capabilities unless you settle on where you raid like the Rus or the Normans.

Perhaps.
 
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Would this mean Catholic Indonesia, which I presume will be called the Philippines in this TL ?

That would be a very interesting Indonesia. How does Spain react finding themselves in control of a large Muslim population? I'd expect to see lots of violence and possibly moving in more European or Catholic settlers from other areas to help pacify.
 
That would be a very interesting Indonesia. How does Spain react finding themselves in control of a large Muslim population? I'd expect to see lots of violence and possibly moving in more European or Catholic settlers from other areas to help pacify.
Perhaps they will only gain the Eastern part which is easy to convert.
 
That would be a very interesting Indonesia. How does Spain react finding themselves in control of a large Muslim population? I'd expect to see lots of violence and possibly moving in more European or Catholic settlers from other areas to help pacify.

This is based on who is in control of the Spanish Americas. The main purpose of the one in control of OTL Spanish America is to maximize the resources that they have which is silver. Thus silver can be traded in massive quantities with China by PoD. The issue here is the OP wants Brunei to be in control of Tondo as PoD which means Spain is already in control of Spanish America precious metals like silver.

Unless the OP PoDs earlier, Spain wont just take OTL Indonesia. Going south to Colonize is just too costly(war with Portugal, not following the treaties between Pope, Spain and Portugal) and without purpose(farther away from trade with China).
 
This is based on who is in control of the Spanish Americas. The main purpose of the one in control of OTL Spanish America is to maximize the resources that they have which is silver. Thus silver can be traded in massive quantities with China by PoD. The issue here is the OP wants Brunei to be in control of Tondo as PoD which means Spain is already in control of Spanish America precious metals like silver.

Unless the OP PoDs earlier, Spain wont just take OTL Indonesia. Going south to Colonize is just too costly(war with Portugal, not following the treaties between Pope, Spain and Portugal) and without purpose(farther away from trade with China).

I am just telling at the POD Tondo is under the control of the Bolkiahs not Brunei so they will remain allied.
 
I am just telling at the POD Tondo is under the control of the Bolkiahs not Brunei so they will remain allied.

Bolkiahs can prevent invasion and colonization if given enough time to recover until European great powers becomes too powerful to resist which is 19th century.

If you don't want the Spanish in Manila, the Spanish would take Moluccas since this was the primary purpose of Magellan but won't have any incentive to take other Indonesian islands or Malaya. They would probably take Macao or Taiwan instead for trading their precious metals to the Chinese. But then again, the Chinese would probably give exceptions to trade with the Spanish directly in their main ports due to the importance of silver especially during the silver shortages in 1600s in china.
 
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