AHC/WI: No Falklands War

If Britain had been in a better position in the 1980s - let's say they integrated former colonies a la France (not the Falklands though), the Suez Crisis didn't happen and through a myriad of events had a better economy. Basically, they aren't really US-USSR powerful, but still the worlds greatest Great Power - less of a "sleeping giant", but more of an active one.

Under that scenario, would Argentina still invade? Was the Junta dead set on an invasion no matter what?
 
Lack of Falkland War would give for junta more time but it would collapse anyway. But collapsing might be bloodier too.
 
Not much more time, a collapse was inevitable by this point without a serious popularity boost, like winning a war.
 
If Britain had been in a better position in the 1980s - let's say they integrated former colonies a la France (not the Falklands though), the Suez Crisis didn't happen and through a myriad of events had a better economy. Basically, they aren't really US-USSR powerful, but still the worlds greatest Great Power - less of a "sleeping giant", but more of an active one.

Under that scenario, would Argentina still invade? Was the Junta dead set on an invasion no matter what?

Doesn't need any of this. Just a change to the defence review which indicates that HMS Endurance will be replaced would indicate to the Junta that we are serious about the area and put them off. However they were in deep trouble by 1982 so it was either the Falklands or Chile!
 
Doesn't need any of this. Just a change to the defence review which indicates that HMS Endurance will be replaced would indicate to the Junta that we are serious about the area and put them off. However they were in deep trouble by 1982 so it was either the Falklands or Chile!

This even something minor like deciding that the Falklands was a 'nice' place to do some training for a few 100s more marines would work that or replacing Ark Royal with a proper CV. (with hindsight both would save a lot of cash but nobody would realise it)
 
This even something minor like deciding that the Falklands was a 'nice' place to do some training for a few 100s more marines would work that or replacing Ark Royal with a proper CV. (with hindsight both would save a lot of cash but nobody would realise it)

Do you think that would really dissuade the Argentinians from invading? If they did end up invading, it might buy the UK some time to send ships.

Also, since I have this thread, and I've been wanting to ask, if the UK somehow found out about Argentina's plans ahead of time and dispatched their OTL ships (maybe some more to make a point), they would have likely been able to blow the ship headed towards the Falklands out of the water, right?
 
Do you think that would really dissuade the Argentinians from invading? If they did end up invading, it might buy the UK some time to send ships.

Also, since I have this thread, and I've been wanting to ask, if the UK somehow found out about Argentina's plans ahead of time and dispatched their OTL ships (maybe some more to make a point), they would have likely been able to blow the ship headed towards the Falklands out of the water, right?
I'd imagine that they would only have to send a single SSN. Sinking one or two escorts is going to change the Junta's ideas about invading pretty swiftly. Though the question would then have to be when would the SSN attack? I'm not convinced that international opinion would allow the UK to get away with a pre-emptive strike as the invasion force entered Falklands waters.
 
I'd imagine that they would only have to send a single SSN. Sinking one or two escorts is going to change the Junta's ideas about invading pretty swiftly. Though the question would then have to be when would the SSN attack? I'm not convinced that international opinion would allow the UK to get away with a pre-emptive strike as the invasion force entered Falklands waters.

Given that we're talking about a more powerful UK who could throw their weight around - well, I think they would get away with it just fine. The UN is handicapped anyway, if for some odd reason they would try to do something as Britain is on the security council.

Also, if that were to have happened, would it have given Maggie enough approval to win a similar victory in 83'?
 
Do you think that would really dissuade the Argentinians from invading?

In my opinion, absolutely. If they had expected any kind of serious resistance from the UK they never would have invaded. The whole point was to have a short victorious war to distract from other issues. Engaging the British navy over some sheep islands was never part of the plan. Argentina expected to take the islands, have the UK shrug and let them have it, and the US to back up Argentinian claims.
 
I'd hate to be they guy bringing in the butterfly effect... bah, who I'm I kidding, I don't hate it at all. But let's go with the OP:

The UK remains a great power, likely the undisputed 3rd in the world. Argentina, a long term friendly/near colony of the UK, has the military choosing to have British advisers instead of French and American ones. A whole different set of juntas, coups or no coup at all means Galtieri doesn't become president.
 

Riain

Banned
I'd hate to be they guy bringing in the butterfly effect... bah, who I'm I kidding, I don't hate it at all. But let's go with the OP:

The UK remains a great power, likely the undisputed 3rd in the world. Argentina, a long term friendly/near colony of the UK, has the military choosing to have British advisers instead of French and American ones. A whole different set of juntas, coups or no coup at all means Galtieri doesn't become president.

That's about the size of it.
 
If Britain had been in a better position in the 1980s - let's say they integrated former colonies a la France (not the Falklands though), the Suez Crisis didn't happen and through a myriad of events had a better economy. Basically, they aren't really US-USSR powerful, but still the worlds greatest Great Power - less of a "sleeping giant", but more of an active one.

Under that scenario, would Argentina still invade? Was the Junta dead set on an invasion no matter what?

I'd hate to be they guy bringing in the butterfly effect... bah, who I'm I kidding, I don't hate it at all. But let's go with the OP:

The UK remains a great power, likely the undisputed 3rd in the world. Argentina, a long term friendly/near colony of the UK, has the military choosing to have British advisers instead of French and American ones. A whole different set of juntas, coups or no coup at all means Galtieri doesn't become president.

Doesn't need any of this. Just a change to the defence review which indicates that HMS Endurance will be replaced would indicate to the Junta that we are serious about the area and put them off. However they were in deep trouble by 1982 so it was either the Falklands or Chile!

Furthermore if the Royal Navy of 1982 ITTL was the same size as it was in 1965 or even the 1950s IOTL then the British are going to have a stronger naval presence in the South Atlantic.

In addition to the ice patrol ship (probably the projected Terra Nova instead of Endurance) there would be between one and four frigates permanently based in the South Atlantic. Plus ships in transit between the Western and Eastern Fleets (if the Mediterranean Fleet was still merged with the Home Fleet in 1967). Therefore if the Argentine Government doesn't plan it properly a British aircraft carrier or guided missile cruiser might be in the South Atlantic on its way to Singapore or coming back.

And the British would still have use of the Simonstown naval base in South Africa. Either the Simonstown Agreement was still in force or the base might still belong to the Royal Navy.

So if the Galtieri is president and he needs a short war to keep him in power then it is going to be against Chile.

However, if the Falklands War still happens the Argentine armed forces are likely to have a greater proportion of British equipment. Their navy is likely to have Vickers built submarines instead of the American and German ones it had in the real world. In addition to the Type 42 destroyers, will be joined by British built frigates and corvettes instead of the French and German ones it had in the real world. There is a good chance that in addition to the Canberras in the Argentine air force would have a Mach 2 development of the Hunter or the Fairey Delta 2 in place of the Mirage IIIs and Daggers.

That would be embarrassing politically. However, could it have military advantages because the British commanders would know what the Argentine's equipment was capable of.
 
TBH keeping Britain a major world power seems rather dramatic when you could just as easily have them not offer to sell the bloody place and instead show any commitment towards keeping the islands. If the Argentinians think they have a fight on their hands they won't go with the plan which was largely based not on British weakness so much as complete indifference.
 
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