WI: Japan capture Dimapur and Kohima

AbeLincoln1865

AbeLincoln1865

The only other battle in my opinion that ensured Japan's defeat more than the Philippine Sea was Kohima.
The Japanese had an opportunity to cut off the Hump airlift to China by capturing the Allied railhead at
Dimapur. Had this happened Operation Ichi-Go may have knocked China out of the war. So, what if they
had succeeded in capturing both towns. How does this effect the rest of the China Burma India Theater?
 

ivanotter

I believe it would have opened the door to India, but whether they were able to support anything this far from 'home' is a good question.

Ivan
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Perhaps the Hump is re-routed to run from Karachi to Punjab and Kashmir flying over Xinjiang?

In India at best I think the Japanese will be able to occupy and fight in some of the wildnerness of Assam, but not to threaten any core parts of India, including Bengal. They also won't be able to present much of a naval threat to India.

If we just say that the Hump gets shut down until the original territory is reclaimed, the allies my find more rewarding uses for the material they cannot send to China, either in Europe, or elsewhere in the Pacific.

Theodore White once speculated that the fuel expended for the China-based bombing campaign and Hump, if used in Europe in later 1944, could have enabled continued simultaneous progress by both Patton and Montgomery over the Rhine.

If he's correct, you could see the European war end 6 months early.

What Japan wins in this case is Soviet entry into the Pacific war 6 months early, resulting in Soviet occupation of much larger than OTL chunks of China, Korea and places in Japan like Hokkaido and possibly northern Honshu

You have the western allies more predominant in Germany's occupation, with Japan divided between the Soviets and Americans.
 
Cymraeg

Cymraeg

Abe Lincoln1865 said:
The only other battle in my opinion that ensured Japan's defeat more than the Philippine Sea was Kohima.
The Japanese had an opportunity to cut off the Hump airlift to China by capturing the Allied railhead at
Dimapur. Had this happened Operation Ichi-Go may have knocked China out of the war. So, what if they
had succeeded in capturing both towns. How does this effect the rest of the China Burma India Theater?
Click to expand...

Dimapur was not in the plan, so you'd need a different commander. Sato saw his task as being simply to capture Kohima. To capture the latter is tricky - you'd need to avoid the battle of Sangshak, where documents were captured that told Slim that the Japanese were sending a division and not just a regiment, which caused him to send substantial reinforcements to Kohima. However, if there's no Sangshak, that leaves 50th Para Brig free to reinforce the garrison at Kohima itself.
 
AbeLincoln1865

AbeLincoln1865

Cymraeg said:
Dimapur was not in the plan, so you'd need a different commander. Sato saw his task as being simply to capture Kohima. To capture the latter is tricky - you'd need to avoid the battle of Sangshak, where documents were captured that told Slim that the Japanese were sending a division and not just a regiment, which caused him to send substantial reinforcements to Kohima. However, if there's no Sangshak, that leaves 50th Para Brig free to reinforce the garrison at Kohima itself.
Click to expand...

I have a copy of Osprey's Campaign 229, Kohima the Battle that saved India:

"But even as the 31st Division dug its claws into Kohima, Mutaguchi reminded Sato that the real objective, the one that would make the
strategic difference for Operation C, was Dimapur. Accordingly, on 8 April Mutaguchi ordered Sato to continue beyond Kohima to Dimapur.
Sato obeyed, if somewhat reluctantly, sending a battalion of the 138th Regiment along the track that led from Merema to Bokajan. However,
Mutaguchi's order to Sato had been copied to the Burma Area Army HQ in Rangoon and Kawabe, who had anticipated such a move by his
army commander, lost no time in countermanding the instructions. Sato's battalion, five hours into its march on Dimapur, was recalled."
 
Cymraeg

Cymraeg

Yes, but a single battalion wouldn't have been able to capture Dimapur. Slim was by now busy ferrying the rest of 2nd Division there and they were the troops who broke the siege.
 

ivanotter

Based on Slim's book and 'Burma' by Louis Allen, I do not get the impression that the Chinese front (and thereby the 'hump') provided any significant strategic advantage.

If it is also correct that a good part of all weapon shipments were kept for the coming civil war rather than fighting Japan, it just puts it into perspective.

Ivan
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Still, Operation Ichi-Go came very close to knocking China out of the war in 1944.
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Ichi-Go perhaps came close to defeating Nationalist China. But it is hard to see what follow-on advantages this gives to the Japanese.

"Knocking China out of the war" in WWII is not a very good metaphor, (nor is "Knocking Russia Out of the war"), because the Japanese and German objectives were not to just beat the Chinese and Russians and walk away, but to occupy their land.

You can't fully "knock your enemy out of the war" if you've decided as a war aim to "lock yourself in to an occupation" of his territory.


So, defeating China in Ichi-Go still leaves about the same amount of Japanese forces "locked in" the China occupation as they had there anyway. I don't see it giving the Japanese assets that allow them to stop US amphibious invasions or Soviet armored invasions later any more effectively than in OTL.
 
AbeLincoln1865

AbeLincoln1865

raharris1973 said:
Ichi-Go perhaps came close to defeating Nationalist China. But it is hard to see what follow-on advantages this gives to the Japanese.

"Knocking China out of the war" in WWII is not a very good metaphor, (nor is "Knocking Russia Out of the war"), because the Japanese and German objectives were not to just beat the Chinese and Russians and walk away, but to occupy their land.

You can't fully "knock your enemy out of the war" if you've decided as a war aim to "lock yourself in to an occupation" of his territory.


So, defeating China in Ichi-Go still leaves about the same amount of Japanese forces "locked in" the China occupation as they had there anyway. I don't see it giving the Japanese assets that allow them to stop US amphibious invasions or Soviet armored invasions later any more effectively than in OTL.
Click to expand...
Well obviously, Japan wouldn't need as many troops and nowhere near the amount of aircraft to occupy China. Imagine all those battle hardened divisions being transferred to the Philippines and Okinawa. I would think the Japanese air attacks on the Mariana Islands might be much more effective.
 

ghappy1000

Abe Lincoln1865 said:
Well obviously, Japan wouldn't need as many troops and nowhere near the amount of aircraft to occupy China. Imagine all those battle hardened divisions being transferred to the Philippines and Okinawa. I would think the Japanese air attacks on the Mariana Islands might be much more effective.
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What about the ships and fuel? US submarines, navy and carrier aircraft and long range bombers will love destroying the merchant and troop ships, tankers, escorts and planes. After the battles of the Marianas and Leyte Gulf had occurred [which'd be the time China would be finished], the US Navy's surface ships would be free to run wild against poorly escorted and supported convoys as well.
 
AbeLincoln1865

AbeLincoln1865

It would still be better than the Philippines and Okinawa not receiving more troops. In addition, couldn't the Japanese use their freed up aircraft to protect the convoys?
 

TRH

Abe Lincoln1865 said:
It would still be better than the Philippines and Okinawa not receiving more troops. In addition, couldn't the Japanese use their freed up aircraft to protect the convoys?
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The IJN was sorely lacking when it comes to anti-submarine warfare technology and doctrine. I don't think additional aircraft would go to that, they'd prefer to hold them in reserve for major battles. I'm not entirely sure what time frame you have in mind for the shift in resources, but by 1944 I don't think it would be possible to significantly reinforce things using troops from the Asian mainland, the IJN was just too heavily degraded by then.
 
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