WI: Hawaii Remains Independent

Delta Force

Banned
I know that Hawaii was annexed in 1898, but this is more about looking forward. Assuming that Hawaii remained independent, what kind of impact might it have had on the 20th century, such as World War I, World War II, the Cold War, and the development of the aviation and maritime industries of the Pacific region?
 

Delta Force

Banned
Since the POD is in the 19th Century, this needs to be moved.

It's something of a wobbler. 1898 PoDs are technically not supposed to go here, but they usually deal heavily with the 20th century. That's why I posted something on the Spanish-American War in this forum earlier.
 
It's something of a wobbler. 1898 PoDs are technically not supposed to go here, but they usually deal heavily with the 20th century. That's why I posted something on the Spanish-American War in this forum earlier.
I kind of see your logic. But I don't know if the mods will.
 
The US Navy base at Pearl Harbor. Was there before annexation. tThe Japanese would still attack it on December 7, 1941.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Assuming no butterflies.


This would be significant, because it would not be an attack on American soil.


Perhaps a slightly less outraged America?

I think it's more the attack in general (especially the scale and surprise of it) that outraged America, not so much where it took place. Of course there are plenty of butterflies to go around in a scenario where Hawaii remains independent. It wasn't until May 1940 that the Pacific Fleet moved to Pearl Harbor, against the strong objections of Admiral Richardson who felt forward basing was more political posturing than military advantage. He was later proven correct when FDR removed him from command for objecting too much. It's likely that Hawaii wouldn't want the entire Pacific Fleet stationed in Pearl Harbor if it was a sovereign state, basing agreements usually include limits to prevent such massive deployments.
 
Then the Republic forges stronger US ties.

Keep in mind the Republic of Hawaii was a stop-gap measure between the overthrow, until they could find someone willing to annex them.
 

Redhand

Banned
Which makes the prospect of them being stuck as an accidental sovereign state quite amusing, to me at least.;)

I don't think Hawaii is regressing back to absolute monarchy anytime soon so I guess the Republic is going to have to stay. Although maybe the British would be interested....

The very threat of that moved forward the annexation of Texas, but things at least seemed to have changed by this point.
 

Redhand

Banned
Even better idea- Have Hawaii remain a Monarchy and mostly Native dominated.

I don't think the planters would allow this and if this was the actual alternative, the US would swallow its reservations about imperialism and annex Hawaii. If this happens though, the Hawaiians would eventually have to reform once its people discovered you can have governments that aren't absolute monarchies.
 
The British or possibly the Germans? Someone was going to take them over.

Not necessarily. There are nations of the world that due to their location because their neutrality benefitted everyone, such as Afghanistan and Siam. As the most isolated archipelago in the world its distance from all major powers, with the exception of the US, would work to its benefit.
 
So does the IJN try a "Pearl Harbor" on the west coast?

Would Japan or the US seize the islands because of their strategic location?

Maybe one or both sides support coups and counter-coups to get someone in charge there friendly to their side.
 

Delta Force

Banned
I don't think Hawaii is regressing back to absolute monarchy anytime soon so I guess the Republic is going to have to stay. Although maybe the British would be interested....

The very threat of that moved forward the annexation of Texas, but things at least seemed to have changed by this point.

I thought Texas was set up for the express purpose of being annexed to the United States? British Texas would have been interesting. French or Spanish Texas even more so.

The British or possibly the Germans? Someone was going to take them over.

Considering that a three way war almost erupted over Samoa in the late 1800s, I think Hawaii might have led to a similar situation.

I don't think the planters would allow this and if this was the actual alternative, the US would swallow its reservations about imperialism and annex Hawaii. If this happens though, the Hawaiians would eventually have to reform once its people discovered you can have governments that aren't absolute monarchies.

Perhaps there could be a Hawaiian Meiji Restoration of sorts? Or more interestingly, an American state with its own monarchy.

Not necessarily. There are nations of the world that due to their location because their neutrality benefitted everyone, such as Afghanistan and Siam. As the most isolated archipelago in the world its distance from all major powers, with the exception of the US, would work to its benefit.

That's essentially why Hawaii was able to remain independent for as long as it did, although it did experience the occasional temporary raid, invasion, and occupation.

So does the IJN try a "Pearl Harbor" on the west coast?

Would Japan or the US seize the islands because of their strategic location?

Maybe one or both sides support coups and counter-coups to get someone in charge there friendly to their side.

You mean Hawaii being annexed later on as a kind of American or Japanese Tannu Tuva?
 
Considering that a three way war almost erupted over Samoa in the late 1800s, I think Hawaii might have led to a similar situation.

Not likely at all. There was no 'paramount chief' or the likes in Samoa in the1880s. There were a variety of chiefs that sought Western aid in the various wars for land and resources. It was very much like Hawaii before the time of Kamehameha the Great's wars of unification. In Hawaii there is one central government and it a participant in many international treaties and agreements.
 
I thought Texas was set up for the express purpose of being annexed to the United States? British Texas would have been interesting. French or Spanish Texas even more so.

So was the Republic of Hawaii.


Perhaps there could be a Hawaiian Meiji Restoration of sorts? Or more interestingly, an American state with its own monarchy.

I really don't think this is possible.

the people who want to be annexed by Hawaii don't want to be a Kingdom, that's why we had the whole Bayonet Constitution and weakening of the throne.

the people who want to stay a kingdom have no interest in being part of the US.
 
The British or possibly the Germans? Someone was going to take them over.
The British and French had come to an agreement between themselves that neither was to attempt to claim the islands for themselves and to respect their independence. Hence why in 1843 when a Royal Navy captain for some reason got above himself and demanded, successfully, that Kamehameha III cede his kingdom to Britain as soon as the local commanding rear-admiral found our about it and arrived on the scene he told him to wind his neck and restored the monarchy and apologised as fast as possible. Now that's not to say that things couldn't change in the forty odd years until the monarchy was overthrown but it suggests they weren't going out of their way to target the kingdom.

My usual suggestion for this scenario is to look at what happened with Tonga as a protected state - the UK was responsible for foreign relations and defence matters with the kingdom retaining freedom on internal affairs. Since the big attraction of Hawaii at the time would be their location and the great harbour at Pearl Harbor then one solution is for an outside country to offer the Hawaiians protection in return for the right to build a naval base and station some troops there. Whether that could be the UK, France, the US, Russia or whoever is wide open.

One thing to bear in mind is what continued independence could do to the economy. If someone other than the US moves in and takes influence over the islands then the Reciprocity Treaty of 1875 could very likely not happen. Since the US after the treaty was a major market for their exports is there anyone else in the region that could be substituted? One slightly off the wall idea I had was for the Hawaiians to barter military access to Pearl Harbor to multiple countries in return for recognition of their independence and trade agreements as a way of balancing them out.
 
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